March Madness 2016 Predictions: Breaking Down Experts' Picks
The 2016 March Madness brackets of the following 10 experts have a lot in common.
Like Michigan State, for starters.
For as wide-open as the season was, according to media and fans, there's a whole lot of chalk (favorites) advancing. And the Spartans have a 60 percent chance of winning this thing in three weeks, according to the featured prognosticators.
But there are also some fun differences.
Follow along, take note of some of your favorite national personalities and create your own super bracket. Or, as you might for food or movie reviewers, you can determine that these people know nothing and you're better off on your own.
Don't let the information overload ruin you before you have to complete your bracket. But if you like to invest in a lot of well-educated opinions—even if informed guesses can backfire—then this is the place for you.
Read on for some of the most noteworthy brackets out there.
Jay Bilas, ESPN
1 of 10
Smartest picks
Bilas brings a certain je ne sai quoi to the picks. He’s a sharp dresser, even while wearing sneakers with his suit on Selection Sunday. He’s quick-witted and doesn’t pull punches, even regarding the audacity that viewers/readers may have to think he knows all. "Never mind that if we knew which teams were going to win, we would all convene in an arid region in a Western state, sitting by the pool with a drink in our hands, living off of our winnings," he wrote.
This is a guy you want to have a beer with, or take bracket advice. It's hard to argue his sound reasoning for getting Oregon to the Final Four, and Xavier's solid guard play eluding West Virginia's stifling defense enough to get to the Elite Eight. North Carolina beating Michigan State in the semis is a tough call, but he's right about UNC's "mindset" these days being improved.
Biggest gambles
VCU over Oregon State isn’t too much of a gamble, considering a lot of the experts are doing it. Michigan getting through the First Four and then handling a disciplined, fresher Notre Dame stands out. As does Seton Hall making into the Sweet 16, though the Pirates are playing well. They rely on sophomores that have never been this far. He calls them “hungry, and very capable.” Beating Utah in Denver (at altitude, mind you) might be asking a bit much, though. Texas A&M to the Final Four (before losing to Kansas) is a bit of a risk, but one several pundits here make.
Trust meter
Hey, this guy picked his alma mater to lose to Baylor in the second round. We really like the soundness of Xavier defeating West Virginia in a Sweet 16 matchup. The Musketeers’ guards are disciplined to handle “Press Virginia.” He even picks Miami, refusing to take the bait on the “safe pick” of Villanova.
I’d trust Bilas to pick out a nice pair of sneaks to go with my suit any day.
Seth Davis, CBS/Sports Illustrated
2 of 10
Smartest picks
On his Twitter account, Davis notes: “Usually I am the upset guy. This year couldn't find many. Biggest is Iona over Iowa State in the first round.”
His bracket features Kansas and Michigan State in the Final Four, and it’s mostly chalk through the early rounds. But Davis is sandbagging a little on not having upsets.
Biggest gambles
Yes, he does have Iona defeating Iowa State in a No. 13 vs. No. 4 game in the first round. That’s not a total surprise. Some would say that Iona plays the same fast, three-point shooting game the Cyclones do, only better.
But then you keep scrolling right to left in the East Region...West Virginia in the Final Four? Whoa, mountain mama! He has the Mountaineers defeating guard-savvy Xavier to get to the Elite Eight and then Kentucky to get to the final weekend. That’s a big-time pick that eclipses all of the safe stuff he does in the early rounds.
Bob Huggins’ team is a bunch of steal fiends, but few brackets will try to steal points by predicting that group to go far.
Trust meter
On the CBS Selection Show, Davis was self-effacing a couple of times about how he doesn’t do particularly well at the bracket games. You can trust him on that one this year. Texas A&M and West Virginia making it to Houston may be a little too much to ask.
Dick Vitale, ESPN
3 of 10
Smartest picks
Vitale is almost all chalk. However, the “rock chalk” dies in the semifinals to Kansas, as he cites that “the third matchup of the season is a charm for the Sooners.” Vitale is usually about the “diaper dandies,” but even he’s buying into experienced players and teams. There’s nothing particularly loud about this bracket; he even picks old favorite Duke to get handled at a reasonable time.
Biggest gambles
He picks VCU over Oregon State in a slight No. 10 vs. No. 7 upset and predicts Kentucky to topple North Carolina in the Sweet 16 (and then beat Xavier). He also has Seton Hall ousting Utah, but otherwise he's pretty...predictable with a capital P, baby!
Trust meter
Vitale gets lambasted often for his purported love of Duke. But he sensibly has the Blue Devils out in the Sweet 16, losing to Oregon. He likes Oklahoma over the Ducks to get to the Final Four. It’s all reasonable, down to Michigan State and Denzel Valentine winning it all. Nothing about this bracket screams "crazy old man." In a way, it’s a shame. There's not even a reference to Pervis Ellison or anything obscure that the kids wouldn't get.
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Gary Parrish, CBS Sports
4 of 10
Smartest picks
Parrish sticks with most of the status quo in the later rounds. His Final Four (Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan State and North Carolina) rings like chalk, as does most of his bracket. It’s a sensible, expected look—like jeans and a sports coat with dress shoes on a sportswriter who is covering the NCAA tournament.
Biggest gambles
The CBS-designed brackets do not include the First Four games, but Parrish has the Vanderbilt/Wichita State winner (as a No. 11 seed) defeating No. 6 Arizona in the first round. There are a couple of No. 10s (VCU and Temple) getting through the first round. Baylor defeating Duke is one of those that could go either way, as evidenced by a fairly split opinion by experts; he takes the Bears.
The biggest gamble is Texas beating Texas A&M and getting through to the Sweet 16. The Longhorns looked like a tired team in the Big 12 tournament.
Trust meter
This is a measured bracket outside of the interesting Texas pick. Parrish digs into history by perhaps giving a nod to Wichita State (out of the First Four) to move on for a bit, and he predicts Gonzaga will get through a hot Seton Hall in the first round. But this is a bracket you could post on your fridge or office cubicle and feel good about.
C.J. Moore, Bleacher Report
5 of 10
Smartest picks
Moore starts off his picks by noting “I have a tendency to go chalky when it comes to the bracket.” But, as he notes in the final front-slide line, this year he went a little wild: “But hey, it's not all chalk this year!”
Though his Final Four does include really solid choices such as Michigan State and Kansas, he has No. 4-seeded Kentucky—playing well these days—keeping it rolling until it plays the Spartans in the national semifinals.
Biggest gambles
Texas A&M to the Final Four is the easiest one to note, though it's not unheard of. The Aggies are talented and experienced, but only to a degree of comparison by that program and this season. Right now, though, it’s the hot pick out in the expected wild, wild West Region.
This school hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament in five years; it hasn't sniffed a Sweet 16 since 2007. Can it really be counted on to make a Final Four run, even this year? Moore also goes with some measured upset calls early with Yale ousting Baylor and Northern Iowa beating Texas. Gonzaga to the Sweet 16 this particular year may be a stretch, especially as Utah matches its size.
The big games in his bracket to watch are ones that are like doubling down at the blackjack table. You can get rich quick or go bust just as fast. He has Kentucky ousting North Carolina in the Sweet 16, West Virginia handling Xavier and short-handed Duke taking out Oregon.
Trust meter
Unlike most of the online expert brackets, Moore explains every pick, round by round. So the logic is certainly there. We’re having trouble trusting that Texas A&M can get so far, but it’s also the West—which seems to be the most wide-open of the regions. This is the bracket, with a few key choices, that's like your older brother teaching you how to live a little—and giving you some sage advice along the way.
Pete Thamel, Sports Illustrated
6 of 10
Smartest picks
This bracket isn’t going to win a whole lot of points for originality, but it could certainly win some office pools as it plays the odds. Thamel has usual suspects Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State in his Final Four.
Thamel’s photo hooked to the bracket has him wearing a black jacket with a white shirt and black tie. Classic look. You can see where he gets his sensibilities for his bracketology.
Biggest gambles
Stephen F. Austin was a hotter upset pick last year, but he has that team defeating West Virginia in the first round. He goes with the trendy No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset with Arkansas Little Rock ousting Purdue in the Midwest Region, along with rolling-along Seton Hall making it to the Sweet 16.
The pick to watch, though, is Duke making it to the Elite Eight. He has the Blue Devils (short-handed and underappreciated as they may be) beating Yale (in the second round) and Oregon before finally falling to No. 2-seeded Oklahoma.
Trust meter
Thamel recently wrote a fascinating story on Arizona coach Sean Miller dropping a lot of weight. This bracket mirrors Miller’s cause, trimming the fat with sensible choices around a guilt-free splurge here and there. And you have to like a guy who had the guts to say Kentucky would lose in the national semifinals last year.
Pat Forde, Yahoo
7 of 10
Smartest picks
Forde’s picks go mostly off his Final Four projections. Otherwise, it's sound analysis with a touch of humor in there. He does note that Syracuse doesn’t belong—“the last time the Orange beat a team that’s in the field: Jan. 28”—and that Wichita State is “the scariest thing in glass slippers…a program that has gone 7-3 in the past three NCAA tourneys and has a pair of senior guards in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker who have seen it all.”
His Final Four is very measured for the most part, featuring Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State.
Biggest gambles
His fourth Final Four team, out of that increasingly odd West, is Texas. That’s a gamble considering how beat up the Longhorns have been at the end of the season with Isaiah Taylor’s foot injury and Cameron Ridley perhaps still unavailable. Forde is clearly riding the Shaka Smart bandwagon in a region that is short on Final Four-caliber coaching outside of him and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski. Also, Forde notes that Arizona should lose to whoever wins the play-in game between Vanderbilt and Wichita State.
Trust meter
Without seeing the full bracket, it’s hard to give Forde a trust rating. But what he does offer is sound, reasonable advice, and you’re not going to have to take a part-time job delivering pizzas by taking it.
Jon Rothstein, CBS Sports
8 of 10
Smartest picks
Chalk all over the place. The usual suspects are all into the Elite Eight, and there are few noteworthy upsets in the early stages.
Biggest gambles
Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16 and West Virginia in the Final Four catch our attention. He pegs the Mountaineers to get past Kentucky, an ode to revenge for last year’s NCAA tournament demolition in Cleveland.
Trust meter
This is your friend with the one funny habit. But it's endearing. Sure, UNI beat some strong teams early in the year, but it just doesn’t fit with the rest of the sensible bracket. But joining the Panthers bandwagon isn't the worst place to be in Bracketville.
Nicole Auerbach, USA Today
9 of 10
Smartest picks
Villanova in the Final Four could go either way. We’ve all questioned whether the Wildcats can take the next, overdue step. And then there are questions about North Carolina, which Auerbach has winning it all. But if you consider how well the Tar Heels have played lately—especially being more in tune defensively—it’s not a bad time to buy stock.
Biggest gambles
Auerbach gives Iowa State a sweet ride to the Sweet 16 because of Arkansas Little Rock’s first-round upset of Purdue. We keep waiting for somebody to pick Virginia to beat Michigan State in an Elite Eight game, but it doesn’t happen here, either. These are pretty safe plays, as she even has the seemingly wide-open West go virtually by seed. That may be a gamble only because it seems to have a variety of teams and storylines that could push it a ton of directions.
Trust meter
Three No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 don’t make for a whole lot of drama in the Final Four. All in all, it's logical and doesn’t have time to mess around. This bracket is out to win.
Rob Dauster, NBC Sports
10 of 10
Smartest picks
Dauster's bracket gets all up in your business. It is loud, screams confidence and might even talk to your girlfriend and convince her to go out for a night on the town. But for some reason, we like it a lot. He has Xavier going through to the Elite Eight. As much as media types have talked up the Musketeers in recent weeks, getting someone to extend them so far has been hard to find. The Final Four is a blue-blood fest, except for Oklahoma out of the unreliable West Region.
Biggest gambles
There are big shots from all over the place here. He has a couple of 12s and three 13s winning first-round games. We told you Dauster was brash. He picks Saint Joseph to reach the Sweet 16; we’re not convinced, considering the Ducks should be fresher than the Hawks will be after that bloodbath against Cincinnati.
He predicts UNC Wilmington will out Duke, which could go either way. But that sets up a path for Baylor to get to the Elite Eight. That’s certainly not playing the odds.
Our favorite, though, is Iona defeating Iowa State (which is reasonable, given the similar styles and that the Gaels can get hot in a hurry). But then Iona loses to Arkansas Little Rock, which makes the Sweet 16.
Trust meter
It’s fun, fresh and out there compared to its contemporaries. You can trust it about as far as you can crumple it up and throw it in a garbage can and wait until next year. Or, you'll be a genius. There isn't much room in the middle here. Like that crazy guy you met at the dorms as a college freshman, you'll probably be telling stories about this kind of bracket for years.
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