Final Four Predictions 2016: Picks, Odds and Analysis on Locks for Semifinals

Who's your pick to win the NCAA national tournament?

College basketball has one of the hardest playoff systems to predict due to its single-elimination format. A fluke upset is never too far-fetched.

But that's what makes March so mad, right?

Let's see which teams oddsmakers at Odds Shark are saying have the best chances to win their regions. After looking at the eight most likely squads to win each region, we'll pick the Final Four representatives.

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Midwest Region

Seed and Team	Odds
No. 2 Michigan State	+160
No. 1 Virginia	+210
No. 5 Purdue	+600
No. 4 Iowa State	+750
No. 3 Utah	+900
No. 11 Gonzaga	+1400
No. 7 Dayton	+1800
No. 9 Butler	+2000

Final Four Pick: No. 2 Michigan State

It's a wonder why Michigan State didn't get a top seed. The Spartans were ranked No. 2 overall in the AP poll from Monday, March 7, then won the Big Ten tournament Sunday afternoon. They earned the No. 2 spot in the poll again this Monday. Somehow, that was only enough to draw the second seed in the Midwest region.

While the seeding was questionable, the selection committee did well to give Michigan State a relatively easy path to the Final Four.

Al Goldis/Associated Press

Virginia might be least formidable top seed in the tournament due to a poor inside presence, and it has been upset by the Spartans in each of its last two tournament appearances. A third "upset" would surprise no one, unlike the past two years.

Denzel Valentine is now fully recovered from his knee surgery, and the Naismith contender has averaged 20.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game in the Spartans' ongoing nine-game winning streak. Along with the contributions of Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello, this team is well-rounded and deep enough to at least win its region.

West Region

Seed and Team	Odds
No. 2 Oklahoma	+210
No. 1 Oregon	+275
No. 4 Duke	+400
No. 3 Texas A&M	+550
No. 6 Texas	+650
No. 5 Baylor	+1100
No. 9 Cincinnati	+1400
No. 7 Oregon State	+2800

Final Four Pick: No. 2 Oklahoma

When deciding between two evenly matched teams, it can be a good idea to just pick the one with the best player. That's probably what oddsmakers did here with Buddy Hield's Oklahoma Sooners against the Oregon Ducks.

Oregon got a debatable No. 1 seed, considering the team ranked No. 5 in Monday's AP poll. The Ducks have been hot, with eight consecutive wins, but they've also been relatively untested throughout the year—only five of their contests have come against ranked opponents, and none against top-10 squads.

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Oklahoma, meanwhile, has played 13 ranked opponents, and five of them were in the top 10. The Sooners' biggest strength, three-point shooting, also matches perfectly with the Ducks' issues defending the three-point line (36.3 opponent three-point field-goal percentage this season).

So while this matchup could easily go either way, it's not surprising to see oddsmakers go with Oklahoma. Heck, even the firepower of Duke or the dual point guards Texas A&M employs could push one of those teams into the Final Four.

South Region

Seed and Team	Odds
No. 1 Kansas	+130
No. 2 Villanova	+275
No. 3 Miami	+700
No. 5 Maryland	+700
No. 4 California	+1000
No. 6 Arizona	+1100
No. 7 Iowa	+1100
No. 9 Connecticut	+2500

Final Four Pick: No. 1 Kansas

It's no surprise to see the AP's overall top seed get both its region's top seed and the most favorable odds to win its region. Kansas hasn't lost since January 25, beating eight ranked opponents in the process.

The Jayhawks are a sharpshooting team both inside and outside the arc, led by Perry Ellis, Wayne Selden Jr. and Frank Mason III. Their balance (four players averaging at least 11 points per game) also helps them stay consistent, since one or two players having an off night wouldn't automatically doom them.

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

While Kansas' road doesn't look terribly difficult, given the respect it has received as the unspoken top overall seed, there are some potential snags. No. 8 Connecticut won the national tournament two years ago, No. 4 Maryland started the season ranked near the top of the country and No. 2 seed Villanova spent a few weeks at No. 1 in the AP poll.

Overall, though, Kansas' attack on both ends of the floor makes it the best bet to win its region.

East Region

Seed and Team	Odds
No. 1 North Carolina	+160
No. 3 West Virginia	+375
No. 4 Kentucky	+450
No. 2 Xavier	+500
No. 5 Indiana	+800
No. 6 Notre Dame	+1200
No. 7 Wisconsin	+1200
No. 10 Pittsburgh	+2200

Final Four Pick: No. 4 Kentucky

Our first somewhat surprising pick!

North Carolina is the odds-on favorite to wins its region as the top seed, but John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats are an upset pick for here with their explosive backcourt and momentum (five consecutive wins).

While the Tar Heels have plenty of inside muscle, which would cause fits for the Wildcats in a potential Sweet 16 matchup, Kentucky has even more of an advantage on the outside. Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray might be the nation's best backcourt, but the Wildcats have a few other players capable of going off, including Alex Poythress, Isaiah Briscoe and even the ultimate wild card, disappointing freshman Skal Labissiere.

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

We would be foolish to ignore Calipari's experience here, even with North Carolina's Roy Williams possessing an amazing resume himself. Coach Cal's teams are 47-15 in the tournament, and this year's SEC-winning bunch can potentially improve that record quite a bit.

Call it a gut feeling, but the Wildcats have the outside attack and enough other wild cards to potentially down Stony Brook, Indiana, North Carolina and Xavier on the way to their fifth Final Four appearance in six years.

Full Odds Shark odds for the Midwest, West, South and East are available via the hyperlinked text.