March Madness 2016: Sleeper Picks with Bracket-Busting Potential

When filling out a 2016 NCAA tournament bracket, remember that fortune favors the bold.

In a field devoid of true powerhouses, daredevils should exploit extra volatility and throw caution to the wind. Rarely do No. 1 seeds all run the gauntlet anyway, but it's even less likely without any fierce favorites.

College Basketball Talk highlighted the tournament's historically weak batch of top seeds:

The absence of a Goliath only makes life easier on any David looking to buck the odds. These No. 11 seeds stand out as squads capable of ruining March Madness brackets.

Wichita State/Vanderbilt

Stephen Haas/Associated Press

Mentioning both may look like a cop-out, but bracket competitions don't require participants to predict the opening-round play-in games. Taking the Wichita State/Vanderbilt option with confidence in the Shockers defeating No. 6 Arizona? Great, but no need to worry if the Commodores do it instead.

For the record, Wichita State is the pick to make the first and second rounds. Wielding KenPom.com's best adjusted defense and No. 12 overall rank should count for something, and it apparently did. According to USA Today's Nicole Auerbach, the selection committee noticed the flattering advanced stats:

Vanderbilt also profiles well for a No. 11 seed forced to play a First Four game, ranking No. 27 on the site's team ratings with a top-35 offense and defense. Yet the Shockers' lockdown defense will trouble the Wildcats, who posted 81.2 points per game this season.

Per the Wichita Eagle's Paul Suellentrop, senior Fred VanVleet doesn't mind the prolonged path forced upon his underrated squad.

“Everybody knows it’s been a long week of not knowing,” VanVleet said. “We all felt good about it, but you never know. Everybody’s mood was they just didn’t care about where, when or how. Tell us we’re in there and we’ll show up and play anybody.”

One overtime loss to the Northern Iowa Panthers—more on them later—nearly kicked Wichita State off the bracket altogether. Since data prevailed, the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) standout will prove why it belongs with a lengthy run.

Gonzaga

John Locher/Associated Press

Seton Hall deserved better. The Pirates made two No. 2 seeds, Xavier and Villanova, walk the plank en route to a Big East title, improving to No. 26 in KenPom.com's overall team ratings. 

Given a better draw, they could have frequented this space as a threat to invade the Elite Eight. They'll instead open the tournament against Gonzaga, who will make its 18th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance after winning the West Coast Conference tournament.

Seton Hall's No. 6 seed is drawing scorn, but The Vertical's Bobby Marks questioned the Bulldogs netting a No. 11 seed despite winning 12 of their final 14 games:

Whereas Seton Hall has outscored opponents by 8.4 points per game, Gonzaga sports a plus-13.5-point differential. Fueled by sophomore guards and forwards, the Pirates face their worst nightmare in Bulldogs big men Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis.

In his senior season, Wiltjer has registered 20.7 points per game on 49 percent shooting. Yet the sophomore Sabonis has turned into Gonzaga's top monster, recording 17.4 points per game on a 61.7 field-goal percentage while grabbing 11.6 rebounds. Seton Hall doesn't have the size to contain either behemoth down low.

A Bulldogs win wouldn't be a grand upset, but they can truly damage brackets by then upending Utah. Despite the major seeding discrepancy, the two towering teams look like twins in KenPom.com's ratings:

Rating	Gonzaga	Utah
Pythagorean Rating	.8609	.8547
Adjusted Offense	114.6	113.7
Adjusted Defense	97.8	97.5

Seton Hall and Utah are poised to becoming trendy picks, so ride with Gonzaga as a relatively safe bet against the grain.

Northern Iowa

Justin Hayworth/Associated Press

For two tournament teams, Texas and Northern Iowa sure lose a lot.

Each enters the first-round showdown with a dozen defeats, making both unpopular bets for a deep run. Yet the No. 11 seeded Panthers have the defense, hot hand and upside necessary to spark significant sleeper appeal.

First, the defense, which ranks No. 45 in KenPom.com's adjusted efficiency. The traditional numbers like them better, as they have shielded opponents to a stingy 62.9 points per contest. As noted by CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein, they have upped the ante even more down the stretch:

They have won 12 of those games, earning an automatic bid by winning the MVC title. If peaking at the right time doesn't garner them any bonus points, earlier victories over North Carolina and Iowa State certainly should.

The Panthers rely on their defense preserving tight leads in low-paced, low-scoring affairs, but they're far from hopeless offensively. Four players, three seniors, average above 10 points per game, and the team collectively shoots an effective 37.5 percent from downtown.

Texas has endured a brutal schedule, which explains its No. 6 seed despite a 20-12 record and underwhelming plus-3.3 scoring margin. It also endures enough offensive lapses to prefer the underdog, who could make noise in the bracket's weakest region.

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