NCAA Tournament 2016 Bubble Watch: What to Watch for on Wednesday

As the calendar slowly inches its way toward Selection Sunday, we'll be providing you with daily previews of all the games involving bubble teams. Thursday and Friday will bring deluges of bubble drama, but we're just dipping our toes into the pool on Wednesday with action in the early rounds of the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 tournaments.

Each game was plugged into our Bubblometer (patent pending) and ranked in ascending order of impact on the bubble. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse is the granddaddy of all bubble games on Wednesday, but let's work up to that Big East-turned-ACC showdown.

For a look at the full picture of the tournament field and where some of these teams fall—either inside or outside of it—you can find that up-to-the-minute information on our live bracket.

No. 8: Texas Tech vs. TCU (9 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

No. 7: Colorado vs. Washington State (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

We're obligated to mention these two games because the favorites (Colorado and Texas Tech) aren't fully cemented into the tournament field. The Red Raiders are a projected No. 7 seed, and we see the Buffaloes as a No. 8 seed.

However, we're not expecting much of a fight from the last-place teams that went a combined 3-33 in conference play this season.

Then again, the basement-dwellers weren't soundly beaten by these likely tournament teams. Washington State fell by just five at home against the Buffaloes before taking them to double overtime in the second game, and TCU's two losses to Texas Tech came by a combined margin of 11 points.

For both the Buffaloes and Red Raiders, it would be their worst loss of the season by a wide margin. Needless to say, that's not the type of final taste a team wants to leave in the selection committee's collective mouth. Texas Tech has enough RPI top 50 wins that it would likely survive the loss, but Colorado could be in serious bubble trouble with a loss to Wazzu.

No. 6: Washington vs. Stanford (3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Some bubble teams are just one win away from clinching a bid, but that's not the case here. This is just the beginning of the journey for Stanford and Washington.

The loser is done with a capital "D." Stanford has 14 losses and a RPI rank of 73, and Washington isn't any better off at 83 with 13 losses. Occasionally, when discussing bubble teams, we just throw numbers at the wall and see what sticks. Those numbers don't even make it to the wall.

But the winner of this one is suddenly one game away from serious consideration.

Despite their litany of losses, the Cardinal have five RPI top 50 wins and no losses outside the RPI top 100, and the Huskies already have eight RPI top 100 wins with just one unfortunate loss (vs. Oakland). And the winner gets a shot against Oregon, which—in case you haven't been paying attention to the Pac-12 this season—would carry even more weight than a win over Duke or Kentucky.

Whether beating the Ducks would be enough for either team to dance is too early to call, but it would at least put either Stanford or Washington within a stone's throw of the field. Proceed to beat Arizona to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, and that team is almost certainly getting a bid.

No. 5: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Like Washington vs. Stanford, this is less of a bubble game than it is a play-in game to get onto the bubble.

With 13 losses and a nonconference SOS rank of 327, Clemson is a long shot multiplied by a fat chance, but the Tigers do have wins over Louisville, Duke and Miami, making them one of three teams outside the RPI top 35 with at least three RPI top 25 wins. (The others are Michigan and Stanford.)

A win over Georgia Tech would be their eighth against the RPI top 100 and would set them up for a golden opportunity against Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals. But with a RPI rank of 116, even that might not be enough.

The Yellow Jackets, however, have a RPI rank of 68, a win over Virginia and only one loss to a team outside the RPI top 100 (at Clemson, as luck would have it). They also rank 61st in KenPom and 25 in SOS, so while they aren't quite on the bubble at the moment, it would probably only take one quality win to get them there.

The loser is finished and the winner isn't in, but it does have hope. That's about all you can ask for if you're on the bubble at this point in the season.

No. 4: Oregon State vs. Arizona State (11:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

Oregon State's resume is astounding, and not necessarily in a good way.

As far as RPI and SOS are concerned, the Beavers are a tournament team no matter what happens in this game against Arizona State. They're 30th in RPI and No. 7 in SOS with six RPI top 50 wins and 11 RPI top 100 wins. I don't know what the record is for RPI top 100 wins for a team that missed the tournament, but that would probably break it.

But it's a conversation that we're having because Oregon State is No. 59 on KenPom and No. 62 in that BPI thing ESPN keeps trying to make happen. This is somewhat easy to explain, though, because those rating systems are grounded in margin of victory, and seven of Oregon State's 11 losses came by a double-digit margin.

Still, six RPI top 50 wins with no RPI sub-100 losses can't possibly be a resume the committee would leave out, right? ESPN's Joe Lunardi chimed in on Twitter on Tuesday night with his thoughts on this game:

Either way, the Beavers might want to avoid losing to the Sun Devils, just in case this is actually the year that metrics other than RPI count for a lot. 

No. 3: USC vs. UCLA (9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

If you're a fan of a team like Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Valparaiso or Wichita State that has nothing left to do but sit at home and hope for the right pieces to fall into place, this is the game on Wednesday you really want to watch—with your USC voodoo dolls.

Like Oregon State, USC has 11 RPI top 100 wins and no losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, so it's a bit difficult to see the Trojans missing the dance at this point.

But they have made a mockery of the eye test in recent weeks, losing six of their last eight games by a combined margin of 78 points. Moreover, they have lost six consecutive road games, none closer than a seven-point loss at Arizona State.

Already floundering into the bubble zone with a RPI rank of 46 and a KenPom rank of 53, if the Trojans look bad in a loss to UCLA, it might be enough to knock them out of the field—depending on what else happens around the bubble, of course.

No. 2: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

If Georgia Tech is on the bubble, then so is Florida State, because they bizarrely have the same three RPI top 50 wins (vs. Virginia, vs. Notre Dame, vs. VCU). Georgia Tech won the head-to-head battle, but Florida State has one fewer loss and a better fourth-best win (at Florida), so that pretty much balances out.

But the Seminoles aren't fully in the conversation until they avenge their late-February loss to Virginia Tech. They were up six late in the second half before VT went on a 25-9 run to win that game easily.

And here's the part of this game you probably weren't expecting: Virginia Tech is almost on the bubble, too. Conference record means nothing by itself, but the Hokies went 10-8 in ACC play with wins over Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson. "Almost" doesn't count, but they also almost won games at Notre Dame and versus North Carolina and Louisville.

Were it not for that hideous season-opening home loss to Alabama State, the Hokies would probably be right in the thick of things.

Once again, the winner of this game doesn't slide into the tournament field. However, it sets up a huge opportunity against Miami in which a win could give one of these middling RPI ranks (FSU 72, VT 88) the kick in the pants it needs to play in Dayton, Ohio.

No. 1: Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse (Noon ET, ESPN)

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To help get you prepared for the first two days of the NCAA tournament, Wednesday's ultimate bubble game tips off at noon on the East Coast. Make sure you block off a few minutes around 2 p.m. on your Outlook calendar to catch the end of this one.

Right now, these are two of the bubbliest teams in the country. In fact, let's just look at the tale of the tape:

Pittsburgh Panthers (19-10, RPI: 58, KP: 43, SOS: 41, Projected Seed: Last four in)

Key Wins: vs. Duke, at Notre Dame, swept Syracuse

What they don't want you to know: Nonconference SOS rank of 194*; season-ending losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech; if Syracuse isn't a tournament team, they only beat two such teams all season.

*How much (if it all) will the committee take into consideration the scheduled game against Gonzaga that was canceled due to unsafe playing conditions? Even if Pittsburgh loses that game, its nonconference SOS rank wouldn't have been nearly this bad.

Syracuse Orange (19-12, RPI: 61, KP: 41, SOS: 40, Projected Seed: Next-to-last No. 10 seed)

Key Wins: at Duke, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Saint Bonaventure, vs. Connecticut

What they don't want you to know: Lost to St. John's and lost at home to Clemson; swept by Pittsburgh; losses suffered without head coach Jim Boeheim do count.

Regardless of who wins, that team will then have at least a 95 percent chance of making the tournament. The loser's chances will depend on how ugly the game gets, but something in the vicinity of 40 percent sounds about right—perhaps less if it's Pittsburgh.

Either way, it'll be an exciting game to kick off the first major-conference bubble day of championship week.

RPI and SOS rankings courtesy of WarrenNolan.com and current through the end of play on Tuesday. KenPom rankings come from KenPom.com.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.