NCAA Tournament 2016: Latest Sleeper Rankings
Are you already filling out brackets in your sleep? Good, then it's not just me.
If you are like me in at least one other regard, you're already looking around for teams you can pencil in for surprise performances in the big dance. Whether it's just a first-round shocker or a deep run, finding that team no one else saw coming can give you a leg up in your office pool, not to mention deliver limitless prestige among friends and colleagues.
In order to assist you in this endeavor, we hereby bring you our sleeper rankings for the 2015-16 college basketball tournament. Last week Brian Pedersen kicked it off, and now we carry the baton forward with a rankings list updated for the here and now.
Teams are ranked based on how far under the national radar they appear to be contrasted with how deep of a run they could make in the tournament.
Projected tournament positions are based on projections from ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. All statistics are accurate as of March 1 and courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
8. Syracuse Orange
1 of 8
Record: 19-11 (9-8 ACC)
Projected seed: 9
Syracuse isn't even a lock to make the tournament. It probably needs a win at Florida State and/or a good showing in the ACC tournament for that.
If the Orange can get in, though, they can beat a lot of teams.
They can lose to a lot of teams, too, but yes, they can win, and win big. Season victories over Duke, FSU, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Connecticut attest to that.
You always know the Syracuse defense will be there. But its offense can catch fire, too, behind Michael Gbinije. When Gbinije isn't leading the ACC in steals with 2.1 per contest, he's fifth in scoring with 17.5.
The Orange are not a deep team, and that could hurt them. They're the epitome of a team that can really hurt opponents if everything lines up.
7. California Golden Bears
2 of 8
Record: 21-8 (11-5 Pac-12)
Projected seed: 6
Cal's current seven-game winning streak has it within a game of the Pac-12 conference lead. That's especially good considering it was 14-8 and 4-5 in the conference January 31.
Superfrosh Jaylen Brown and floor leader Tyrone Wallace pace a balanced attack, and the Bears' 16th RPI ranking is higher than you might expect. They sit 14th in KenPom's defense efficiency ratings, which suggests they can get stops when it matters in March.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
3 of 8
Record: 17-11 (8-8 SEC)
Projected seed: "First Four Out"
The Crimson Tide finally stanched that crimson stream flowing out of their tournament lives when they beat Auburn on Saturday.
True, Auburn is not good, but the win did stop a two-game losing streak that saw them drop bad losses to Mississippi State and Kentucky.
Bama fans have to hope the most accurate predictor for this team was the time period before those two losses, a time that included consecutive wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU.
It's a team that can get hot in a hurry, and that can give anyone problems on the right day. Alabama has to keep winning, and it can give itself that chance.
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5. Wichita State Shockers
4 of 8
Record: 23-7 (16-2 Missouri Valley Conference)
Projected seed: 7
It's the final ride of the Shockers.
Well, at least in their current form. This summer, Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker will move on after what must feel to opposing teams like decades spent in black and gold.
Injuries and that rough early season seem to be behind them. Then again, they lost at home to Northern Iowa two weeks ago, and barely-over-.500 Illinois State earlier in February.
So yeah, probably a little less consistency than they were looking for. Still, it's hard to bet against the veterans and that second-in-the-nation scoring defense with 59.4 points allowed per game, per NCAA statistics.
4. Texas Longhorns
5 of 8
Record: 19-11 (10-7)
Projected seed: 5
It's time to take the Longhorns seriously. So seriously, in fact, that they may not be a sleeper much longer.
That'll happen after having knocked off Oklahoma and moved up to No. 23 in the AP rankings. But we'll consider them a sleeper here for at least one more week, given that they are not considered a national powerhouse but have, at times, played like one and could play like one come tournament time.
Texas did lose to Kansas on Monday. On one hand, Kansas is No. 1 in those aforementioned AP rankings. On the other hand, the loss was by 30 points. That's not what any team want. What's more, star guard Isaiah Taylor is apparently struggling with plantar fasciitis. Also not desirable.
And yet, something tells me Texas has the stuff to rebound. KenPom ranks its schedule as the toughest in the entire nation. So these guys know a little bit about playing through a challenge. They'll have more opportunities down the stretch to show how capable they are of doing so.
3. Wisconsin Badgers
6 of 8
Record: 19-10 (11-5 Big Ten)
Projected seed: 7
Suddenly it's not just Nigel Hayes and A Bunch Of Guys.
Now Wisconsin has four players averaging nine or more points per game. Sure, Ethan Happ still disappears for entire games, but he's still adding 12 points a game. Over the past eight contests, Bronson Koenig has really come on, averaging 14 points during that stretch without falling into single digits once.
And don't forget about Vitto Brown, who can just come out and randomly torch people. Ask the Maryland Terrapins if they've forgotten.
It was tough sledding after coach Bo Ryan's retirement, but with Greg Gard now past the new-guy stage, the Badgers appear to have their feet underneath them.
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders
7 of 8
Record: 18-10 (8-8 Big 12)
Projected seed: 8
Man, what does Kansas have against the Lone Star State?
You may recall from an earlier slide that it smeared the Longhorns. The Jayhawks prefaced that by halting the Red Raiders' win streak at five.
It was still a pretty good streak, what with the Oklahoma and Baylor and Iowa State wins and all. Pretty darn good indeed. Tubby Smith has turned things around in Lubbock.
One might go so far as to say, in light of its hot streak, Texas Tech is being overlooked. And by "one," I mean "Texas Tech fans."
"Texas Tech fans have long felt their team is frequently ignored and discounted by the national media," said Matthew Conner of FanSided blog Wreck 'Em Red. "The fact that the Texas Tech basketball team was left out of the top-25 again this week just adds more fuel to that fire."
Red Raiders fans may hope for more recognition. But all those bracket-heads out there are probably hoping their profile stays right where it is.
1. Vanderbilt Commodores
8 of 8
Record: 19-11 (11-6 SEC)
Projected seed: 10
If you can figure out this Vanderbilt team, please let me in on the secret.
The Commodores were 8-7 at one point this year. When they lost to South Carolina, people left them for dead. Their signature nonconference win was Wake Forest. Signature nonconference losses—Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, LSU, Dayton(?)—were a little easier to pinpoint.
The early part of the SEC schedule was better, if not energizing. But over the weeks, one win turned into another win turned into a streak turned into an entire freaking reversal.
Their current four-game win streak includes Kentucky and Florida. Their 48th national RPI ranking is a minor miracle given what happened in 2015.
But perhaps the strangest piece is why this didn't happen sooner. Vandy has always had the horsepower.
With touted guard Wade Baldwin in the backcourt and dual 7-footers in Damian Jones and Luke Kornet down low, there's no question the team is a good matchup for just about anyone.
"There's definitely a sense of urgency, especially with all the expectations coming into the season where we should be," Baldwin said, according to Teresa Walker of the Associated Press (h/t USA Today). "We've let it slip a little bit, but you know we're here and opportunity's right ahead of us."
If they can play their way in, it'll be hard for anyone to play them out.
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