2016 NFL Free Agency: Predicting Where Top WRs Will Land

This offseason’s class of free agents at wide receiver isn’t quite what it was a year ago, when we saw the likes of Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas headlining a stacked group. Of course, most of the top guys wound up staying put, whether by franchise tag or long-term deal. 

The position is rather top-heavy heading into free agency this year, though, with just one real headliner surrounded by opening acts or crowd warmers.

Let's run up the list of the top would-be free agents as we round the corner and speed toward free agency.  

9. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks

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Just how interesting is Jermaine Kearse? It’s tough to say.

On the one hand, he has been a consistent producer for the Seattle Seahawks over the past couple of seasons. On the other, that amounted to 1,222 yards and six touchdowns in that span.

Of course, raw stats aren’t everything. To wit, Pro Football Focus had Kearse with a 126.1 receiver rating when his quarterback targeted him, good for fourth in the league.

Kearse is from Washington, but he told ESPN's Adam Schefter that he would not give the Seahawks a hometown discount. That doesn't mean the Seahawks won't pay the man his due, though.

Considering he won't likely command a massive contract, it's a good bet Seattle will keep its own. 

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks

8. Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers

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Does he have one or two more hurrahs left? That’ll be the biggest question dogging Anquan Boldin as he approaches free agency. 

After all, he is 35 years old, and he hasn’t been producing much in recent years. Of course, his awful quarterback situation didn’t help matters—Colin Kaepernick regressed far enough for Blaine F. Gabbert to take over as starter last season—but Boldin is getting a bit long in the tooth for the NFL.

Where should he go? Who should try to sign him?

At this stage in his career, Boldin should look to win a ring. There are a couple of needy, championship-caliber teams who could use his veteran services, most notably his old nemesis in New England.

Prediction: New England Patriots

7. Nate Washington, Houston Texans

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Always cast in the chorus instead of as the lead—usually in a bad production to boot—Nate Washington has a chance to turn in a late-career renaissance and give himself a fabulous send-off. Of course, he has to sign with a team that has a bona fide quarterback.

Washington has toiled in frustrated obscurity ever since he left Pittsburgh, where he had a bit part in a fantastic show. He has been better than his numbers show in Tennessee and Houston, where he has been a solid slot receiver for years.

The 32-year-old has the ability to become an impact receiver for a championship-caliber squad if he so chooses, though. Or he could follow the money. 

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

6. Rishard Matthews, Miami Dolphins

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One of the biggest surprises of the season came in the form of Rishard Matthews, whose novelty faded when injury struck and first-round rookie DeVante Parker began eating into his snaps.

Matthews was huge for the Dolphins early in the season—an unexpected contributor given Miami’s heavy investments at the wideout position over the past couple of seasons. Matthews amassed 662 receiving yards and four touchdowns before injuring his ribs in Week 12.

The Nevada product was miffed Miami selected Parker after signing Greg Jennings and trading for Kenny Stills last offseason to the point he wanted to be traded, per Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. Instead, he got more playing time and made the most of it.

Matthews is still a relative unknown, but he has put enough on tape to warrant a look in free agency. 

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

5. Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens

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Kamar Aiken got his chance to be the man in Baltimore last season. Too bad he didn’t seize the opportunity in a contract year.

The 6'2", 215-pound wideout didn't have much help, but he put up just 944 yards and five touchdowns in a featured role. It seemed like a switch flipped at the halfway point of the season, though—611 of those yards and three of those touchdowns came after Week 8.

Aiken has plenty of potential still, and he could thrive as a great No. 2 option. Considering the Ravens have bled homegrown receivers to their detriment, they should strive to keep him.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens

4. Rueben Randle, New York Giants

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Sometimes, potential trumps production. That is the case with Rueben Randle, who has been a bit of a mirage thus far in the NFL.

The former second-round pick hasn't quite lived up to his promise in four years with the New York Giants. He has been overshadowed by the likes of Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. while creating little traction in this offense. 

Perhaps the Giants didn't give him the ball enough. He didn't seem fond of his role behind Beckham last season, as he told WFAN, according to Paul Schwartz of the New York Post.

"My opportunities have been cut down a little more," he said. "Odell is pretty much the prime target for us offensively. It’s definitely frustrating. As a receiver you want to get more involved. It can be kind of tough when the opportunities are limited."

A fresh start could do wonders for Randle and for whoever nabs him in free agency.

Prediction: Detroit Lions

3. Travis Benjamin, Cleveland Browns

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Dark clouds perpetually linger over Cleveland, but the occasional ray of light seeps through.

Last season, Travis Benjamin was one such light. 

A team seemingly bereft of wide receiver talent after Josh Gordon’s season-long suspension got a pleasant surprise in Benjamin, who flourished with his opportunity. Despite being stuck in the NFL’s most infamous quarterback purgatory, he put up 1,302 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns.

The former Hurricane is a dynamic wideout, capable of picking up chunk yardage and scoring in a multitude of ways. He had flashed his ability before—particularly as a punt returner—but injuries and poor quarterback play have hindered his rise. 

That quarterback thing was still a problem last year. Fortunately for Browns fans, Benjamin might not hold it against the team, at least according to agent Ronald Butler, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com: 

"

I'm optimistic that something will get something done in the near future. We've been in contact with the organization here in the last couple of weeks and we're still trying to figure out how we can get this thing done where both sides agree to a fair offer. But Cleveland has made strides in terms of getting him back in a Browns uniform.

"

Cleveland would certainly like to re-sign Benjamin before he hits the open market and comes to his senses. 

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens

2. Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

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What can Marvin Jones do when he’s not playing second fiddle to A.J. Green?

Well, for starters, he has to get out of Cincinnati, which may not happen. Jones and Green make for a great receiving duo and buddy-cop film. If injuries hadn't gotten in the way since his NFL arrival, Jones might be getting more attention.

Should he hit the free-agent waters, though, the suitors could line up for his services. Whether they view him as a No. 1 or No. 2 is another matter, though—he is a versatile receiver, but he is more of a deep threat than anything else.

He should be a priority for the Bengals this offseason, so anyone looking to sign him won't likely get a chance.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

1. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

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Alshon Jeffery is, by far, the best free-agent wide receiver this offseason. Now, if only the Bears will let him hit the market.

Jeffery possesses a rare combination of size and speed that we saw on full display as he developed into Chicago’s No. 1 offensive weapon. Injuries impacted his 2015 season, but he was on pace for 96 receptions totaling 1,424 yards and seven touchdowns had he stayed healthy.

More importantly, Jeffery is the prototypical No. 1 receiver, a 6'3", 216-pound specimen with huge mitts and incredible athleticism. He will command a huge payday, though injury concerns might lower the ceiling on a new contract a hair.

Unfortunately for would-be suitors, Chicago is probably going to hit him with the franchise tag or sign him to a big extension. 

Prediction: Chicago Bears