Latest Fact or Fiction for the 2016 NFL Draft
The majority of rumors in the NFL draft world start from two major networking events: the Senior Bowl and the combine. The Underwear Olympics aren't until the end of this month (Feb. 23-29), but with Jan. 30's Senior Bowl finished, plenty of gossip has made its way into the media.
The draft is the most impactful portion of the offseason for all 32 franchises, as they will be able to bring in young talent on the cheap end of the salary spectrum.
In an attempt to sift through what does and doesn't check out from a logical standpoint, we'll hit eight of the largest buzz points in this class, starting with where the rumors originated. From there, we'll critique the logic, striving to find fact or fiction in the whispers regarding April 28-30's NFL draft.
Laremy Tunsil Leading Candidate to Go No. 1 Overall
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Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil played three years for the University of Mississippi after showing up to campus as a blue-chip recruit. He met all expectations and more in his career as a Rebel.
Last offseason, an NCAA investigation began around the subject of Tunsil and improper benefits, which won't loom over his NFL future, but it did lead to the bookend missing about half of his junior season. When he returned, he had to go head-to-head against Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and Auburn's Carl Lawson, who may be the top two edge defenders selected in the 2017 draft class.
The result? A stonewalling in both cases.
This week, ESPN's Adam Schefter claimed the feeling around the league is that Tunsil, who only allowed two sacks in his college career, is the leader to come off the board first overall if the Tennessee Titans hold on to the top pick of the draft:
"If Tennessee remains at No. 1, NFL personnel executives said this week that there was a real chance the Titans would take Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. That would give them bookend tackles with Taylor Lewan to protect Marcus Mariota and to run the ball for years to come.
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Not only would Tunsil's addition help the fumble-prone Marcus Mariota in edge protection, but kicking now-second-year lineman Jeremiah Poutasi from a starting bookend to a starting guard will also help the interior line.
Tunsil looks like the next Jonathan Ogden—a future All-Pro who is too talented to fail. He's the best player in the draft, and the Tennessee Titans have a need at his position. With a quarterback already in place, it's hard to imagine them passing up on the dancing bear.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
Cleveland Browns Going Quarterback at No. 2
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Johnny Manziel is a lame-duck quarterback who is waiting to get cut by the Cleveland Browns, per Pat McManamon of ESPN.com. The 2014 first-round pick is out of the Browns' long-term plans after his last episode, in which his ex-girlfriend's lawyer alleges Manziel ruptured her ear drum in a physical altercation.
Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson already claimed that his team needs a quarterback on Bleacher Report's SiriusXM channel in January. During the Super Bowl week's festivities, Leigh Steinberg, the agent of former Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, was able to sneak in a picture of Lynch, Jackson and Browns co-owner Dee Haslam.
Be it Lynch, Carson Wentz of North Dakota State or Jared Goff of California, there's a good chance the team goes with a passer early on. Otherwise, unless it makes a move for a quarterback such as Sam Bradford in free agency or Colin Kaepernick via a trade, it's stuck with Josh McCown or Austin Davis.
It's not often that teams are awarded top-five picks, so when they have them, they have to land their punches. There's no promise that Cleveland will find itself in the position to pick in the top five again under Jackson, and taking the second, third or fourth quarterback off the board is how the Browns found themselves in their current mess in the aftermath of Brandon Weeden and Manziel.
There's a shot that four passers come off the board before the 30s. Unless the team wants to risk it all by hoping to take a Christian Hackenberg on Day 2 or completely tank for a year under the McCown-Davis combo, the Browns have to take their new face of the franchise with the second overall pick.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
Joey Bosa Coming off the Board in the Top 3 Picks
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In Charlie Campbell's rumor mill from the Senior Bowl on Walter Football, one note he highlighted was Joey Bosa, a former Ohio State defensive end, as a potential top-three draft choice.
"Sources say that Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa is in play for the San Diego Chargers at the third overall pick," Campbell reported. "Bosa isn't a great fit in a 3-4 defense, but the Chargers feel he is a versatile player whom they could move around."
The first pick of the draft is held by the Tennessee Titans, who play in a 3-4 defense, a poor fit for Bosa, who isn't long or strong enough to play 5-technique defensive end or athletic enough to be a pass-rushing outside linebacker in that defensive system.
The Titans already have their pair of outside linebackers in Derrick Morgan, a longtime starter and former first-round pick, and Brian Orakpo, a big-time free agent who just signed last offseason.
In the second slot are the Cleveland Browns, who, like the Titans, play in a 3-4 defense. Paul Kruger fills one of the pass-rushing positions, while former first-round pick Barkevious Mingo and 2015 second-round pick Nate Orchard figure to battle for the other starting job. Taking Bosa over a quarterback would just mean that the team is claiming losses on both of those high picks already, which seems like an unlikely route.
Last in the top three are the San Diego Chargers, another 3-4 team. Melvin Ingram just cracked double-digit sacks last season, while 2014 second-round selection Jeremiah Attaochu is entering his third year. Due to the scheme fit and the depth of the pass-rushers on the clubs that pick at the top of the draft, there isn't a slot that makes sense for the former Buckeye to land in the top three selections.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
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Carson Wentz Becoming a Top-5 Pick
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Everything surrounding the rise of Carson Wentz seems a little suspicious. Prior to the FCS national championship, the North Dakota State product was a dark-horse quarterback prospect, but after returning from a wrist injury, he is now being talked about as a top-five pick.
Mike Mayock of NFL Network called him a top-10 selection, while Jeff Risdon of Real GM stated that the Dallas Cowboys, who are drafting fourth overall, might not even get a swing at the former Bison passer.
Out of nowhere, a lot of confidence shifted to a quarterback who not only has to make the transition from the speed of college football to the professional game but was featured in a power-run offense in a lower division.
On paper, there isn't one thing he can do down the line that Paxton Lynch isn't also capable of. Jared Goff is more NFL-ready, as he's fairly mistake-free, despite the fact that he is going to have to transition from a wide-open air raid offense. So if Wentz isn't the best passer out of the gate and isn't the quarterback with the highest upside, why is he being talked about so highly?
Quarterbacks can be fragile subjects. At different points this season, Connor Cook, Lynch and Goff were anointed and torn down. This might just be Wentz's turn in the cycle of over-inflation.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Willie Beavers, 1st-Round Pick
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Willie Beavers is an offensive lineman who played at Western Michigan. While many think he's an interior line prospect, he spent his time in Mobile, Alabama, at the Senior Bowl as an offensive tackle.
Before the week's events, NFL.com's Gil Brandt, a longtime member of the Dallas Cowboys front office, called Beavers the sleeper of the Senior Bowl roster:
"Every year, there's a surprise or two from the Mid-American Conference in the draft. We saw it with Eric Fisher, who was the No. 1 overall pick out of Central Michigan in 2013, and we had it with Khalil Mack, the fifth overall pick from Buffalo in 2014. I think Western Michigan offensive lineman Willie Beavers is going to be the next surprise to come from the league. Don't judge him by his tape from the 2015 season -- he had an injured ankle and played at less than 100 percent. He has long arms, good agility and is very competitive. I think he has chance to be an NFL regular.
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Chase Goodbread of NFL.com would then use Brandt's positive words on Beavers to call him a potential first-round pick. Of all of the bandwagons started this winter, his candidacy as a top-32 pick may be the most odd.
At the Senior Bowl, the tackle with the golden helmet struggled in practices, even leading Joe Marino of Draft Breakdown to claim he was the worst prospect on the field. The projections for Beavers are out of line. The mid-major prospect is an absolute project who will need to land with a strong offensive line coach—likely on Day 3 of the draft based on his talent, not on Day 1.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Robert Nkemdiche's Off-Field Issues Overemphasized
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In Matt Miller's Senior Bowl week scouting notebook for Bleacher Report, he noted that Robert Nkemdiche, the former Mississippi defensive lineman, is still being looked at as a top-five pick despite ending his college career in a marijuana arrest and suspension before his final bowl game:
"Robert Nkemdiche's hotel incident made big news, but sources I spoke with this week at the area scout level still think he'll be in play as a top-five pick. I've heard from the San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys that both teams are doing extensive visits and background research on him.
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After his teammate Laremy Tunsil, there may not be a player with as much upside as Nkemdiche. If he "hits" as a 3-technique defensive tackle, he could have an Ndamukong Suh-type impact at the next level. In the NFL, talent trumps all.
Interior defensive linemen are the second-most valuable players in the sport behind quarterbacks. Even the historical draft day "drops" are players like Warren Sapp, who "fell" all the way to 12th overall.
Stealing an All-Pro defensive lineman on a rookie contract can completely change the course of a franchise. Don't expect Nkemdiche to fall out of the top 10 in April, when teams will have boards finalized and realize he's one of the few bright spots in a class that is a little light on the top end.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
Houston's Interest in Christian Hackenberg
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The media will stress the connection between Houston Texans head coach Bill O'Brien and Christian Hackenberg all offseason. The two first crossed paths when O'Brien recruited the blue-chip quarterback to Penn State. After developing into a True Freshman All-American, Hackenberg was tabbed as the next elite quarterback prospect.
When O'Brien left, though, everything changed. The head coach split to the Texans after the 2013 season, and Hackenberg's stats and film have regressed under James Franklin's leadership. After just two mediocre seasons under Franklin, the passer ditched his college career in an attempt to find guidance as a professional.
This wasn't the first or last time that O'Brien and Hackenberg's names would be linked together, as the reputable Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting had a note on the Texans-Hackenberg relationship in his post-Senior Bowl "State of the Draft" piece:
"Christian Hackenberg to the Texans; I’m putting that in dark pencil until I hear otherwise, even if that means mocking it in round one for now. From people close to the Hackenberg family and from what I’ve heard of the Texans decision-making dynamic, it’s too perfect of a fit. The Texans need an NFL-ready quarterback, and Hackenberg showed #1 overall promise with Bill O’Brien as his head coach. I have been told Connor Cook-Bill O’Brien connections in the past, and I can’t entirely rule out that connection either.
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As of now, I'm willing to buy into this line of thinking. Houston is a playoff team looking for a passer. Usually, that means a squad is drafting deep enough into a class that it has to pull some creative maneuvers to land a starting-caliber quarterback.
Hackenberg may not have displayed NFL starting potential in 2014 or 2015, but he did in 2013, under O'Brien, who was the first person the signal-caller thanked in his declaration speech, despite the fact that O'Brien was his coach for only one year, two seasons removed.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
Noah Spence Rising into the 1st Round
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Anyone with a pair of eyes can see that Noah Spence is worthy of a first-round pick on film. The former Eastern Kentucky Colonel and Ohio State Buckeye is the best pure pass-rushing prospect in the class, including the best 3-4 outside linebacker option. If you want to go as far as calling him a top-five talent, there won't be many checking your opinion. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports even agrees.
Still, after two drug suspensions led to his ineligibility in the Big Ten, his ability to stay clean off the field has been a question mark since 2014. Will Spence be a second-round pick like Randy Gregory or a third-round pick like Justin Houston, two elite pass-rushing prospect who have fallen due to drug concerns?
During the Super Bowl, College Football 24/7, NFL.com's draft section, tweeted "What issues?" in regard to Spence's off-field troubles while Von Miller, a similar pass-rusher, was taking over the sport's largest stage. Judging by recent mock drafts, assuming he'd make it out of the first round is now wishful thinking.
As long as Spence can continue to rise, as he did at the Senior Bowl, the story of his landing in the first 31 picks of the draft checks out. He's a phenomenal talent who hasn't had a drug issue in more than a year.
Franchises must learn from their mistakes: Don't be the team to let your rival steal the next Tyrann Mathieu or Justin Houston-level prospect in the third round. If a prospect can prove he has his head on straight, treat him that way. With one more obstacle to hurdle in the combine, Spence is nearing the finish line of proving his maturity.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
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