NFL Predictions Week 17: Picks and Odds Advice for Final Schedule

Nobody wants to end on a low note with NFL Week 17 set to kick off.

Well, except for NFL front offices that have the upcoming draft on the mind. But for NFL bettors, Sunday's slate is about getting out in front of the impending playoff push, where the best lines to bet reside.

Week 17 isn't an easy beast, as usual. Bettors not only have to battle with Las Vegas and the normal conditions but the idea that a team could pull starters or not trot them out at all.

Here's a bit of relief with a look at the lines and a projection for each game.

NFL Week 17 Odds

Game	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants	NYG -6	51	NYG 33-28
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo	NYJ -3	41.5	NYJ 20-17
Washington at Dallas	DAL -4	39.5	WAS 30-21
New Orleans at Atlanta	ATL -6	52.5	NO 28-27
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -7	43.5	KC 28-20
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -10.5	47	PIT 44-28
Minnesota at Green Bay	GB -3	45.5	MIN 27-24
Baltimore at Cincinnati	CIN -9.5	41.5	CIN 35-17
Detroit at Chicago	DET -1	45	DET 17-10
Tampa Bay at Carolina	CAR -10	46	CAR 36-17
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -6.5	4.5	JAC 21-17
Tennessee at Indianapolis	NL	--	IND 20-16
New England at Miami	NE -9.5	46.5	NE 30-13
San Diego at Denver	DEN -9.5	41.5	DEN 27-10
St. Louis at San Francisco	STL -3.5	37.5	STL 14-3
Seattle at Arizona	ARI -6	47	ARI 24-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Last-Minute Odds to Bet

New England (-9.5) at Miami

Don't worry about the starters here, folks. 

The New England Patriots still have to worry about having home-field advantage throughout the postseason, so Tom Brady and Co. will suit up against the Miami Dolphins. Granted, fantasy owners might be angry if they don't play the whole game, but bettors can rest easy.

Ben Volin of the Boston Globe provided a bit of perspective:

These teams met back in Week 8, when the Patriots cruised to a 36-7 stomping behind four touchdown passes by Brady, one each to Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis and two to Julian Edelman.

Bettors shouldn't worry that two of those names won't partake in Sunday's action. The Dolphins have lost three in a row and since the Week 8 loss have scored more than 20 points in a game just once.

Miami refuses to run the football, so the offense has been downright putrid. It won't find any semblance of reason to run Sunday once it falls behind either, so expect Brady and Co. to pull away right out of the gates just like they did in the first encounter.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 13

San Diego at Denver (-9.5)

The above notes about New England's postseason standing have a direct correlation here—the Denver Broncos have to trot out starters to nab what should be the No. 2 seed. 

Bettors last saw Denver take care of business against a game Cincinnati Bengals team, snapping a two-game skid. Losses or not, over the three-game trip backup quarterback Brock Osweiler hasn't looked bad with four touchdowns to one interception.

Folks might find reason for pause with this game, because in Week 15 the Chargers showed a pulse with a 30-14 win against those Dolphins. Those who fret need to put it into perspective, though: Philip Rivers and Co. came to life for a win against a bad team in what might have been the franchise's last game in San Diego. 

There's nothing special for the Chargers in Week 17. Playing the spoiler might be nice, but in Week 13 against these same Broncos and at home, Rivers and Co. mustered three points in a 17-3 loss, while he went 18-of-35 with 202 yards and an interception.

This one goes down in Denver, and the Broncos still have the No. 1 pass defense, No. 2 rush defense and No. 4 scoring defense, allowing an average of 18.4 points per game.

If the Chargers were healthy, this might be closer. But notables such as Jason Verrett, Manti Te'o, King Dunlap, Patrick Robinson and Stevie Johnson litter the injury report after Eric Weddle got shut down for the year. The season is over for the Chargers, and it'll show Sunday.

Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 10

New Orleans at Atlanta (-6)

How's this for an upset special? 

This is an odd line. The New Orleans Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons back in Week 6, 31-21. Drew Brees threw for a touchdown, and Mark Ingram rushed for two, snapping a 5-0 start by the Falcons. Atlanta would win its next game but then go on to lose six in a row.

This line might sit as such because the Falcons have suddenly won two in a row, but a 23-17 win against Jacksonville and a 20-13 upset of Carolina don't say much. Yes, the Panthers were undefeated, but divisional matchups can always go either way—two weeks before the upset the Panthers routed the Falcons 38-0.

New Orleans has won two of its last three and has a 41-38 loss to Carolina in there for good measure. With the threat of Brees and possibly coach Sean Payton leaving this offseason, the Saints are one of the few teams that might ride on pride this weekend. Think of San Diego in its final home game, folks.

Payton certainly made it sound like his guys will be ready for Sunday when he spoke with ESPN.com.

"Perception is important and I think how you finish the season is important," Payton said. "You work so long and to put the hours in—the players and coaches and everyone involved do. The taste in your mouth if you don't have success is terrible."

With Matt Ryan sitting on four touchdowns to five picks over his last five games and Julio Jones being held scoreless against the Saints in three straight, it's not hard to see how New Orleans could pull off the upset.

Look for the Saints to stick around most of the game until taking over late, going on a strong run to end the season on a high note and heading into whatever comes next in a positive manner.

Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 27

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of January 3. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.