NFL Playoff Scenarios 2015-16: AFC, NFC Picture, Wild-Card Odds Before Week 16

It truly is the most wonderful time of the year for those interested in high-stakes NFL games that will directly shape the postseason picture.

Week 16 features a critical showdown between Washington and the Philadelphia Eagles with the NFC East hanging in the balance, as well as clashes between the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in the NFC and the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos in the AFC with first-round bye implications.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs are all 9-5 and battling for wild-card positioning, although Kansas City is only one game behind the Broncos in the race for the AFC West title. 

With so much left to decide with only two weeks of games remaining, here is a look at the playoff picture and wild-card odds for each league. The wild-card odds are my own subjective opinion for how the races will unfold.

Playoff Picture

Wild-Card Odds

Team	Odds at Wild Card	Reasoning
AFC
New York Jets	5-1	Difficult game with New England Patriots will prove too much
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1	Playing better football than almost anyone right now
Cincinnati Bengals	20-1	Will clinch division with easy win over Baltimore Ravens if lose to Denver
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1	Finish with very beatable Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos	4-1	Will win division with two home games to finish season, even if one is against Bengals
NFC
Green Bay Packers	8-1	Already beat Vikings once and get them at home in Week 17, so will win division
Minnesota Vikings	2-1	See above
Seattle Seahawks	Clinched	Clinched wild-card spot

Week 16 Game to Watch: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals 

There is plenty at stake when the Packers and Cardinals square off Sunday.

The Cardinals already clinched the NFC West, while the Packers are a game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North and have a head-to-head game against them at Lambeau Field awaiting in Week 17. Both of these teams will likely be division winners, but the No. 2 seed in the conference and first-round bye status is still up for grabs.

Green Bay would have to win its last two games and hope for an Arizona loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 to clinch that bye, but it isn’t crazy to envision the two-time NFC champions beating the Cardinals to finish the season.

Arizona is 5-1 at home on the year, while Green Bay is a solid 5-2 on the road and often receives plenty of support from Cheeseheads who travel across the country to watch their beloved team. Something will have to give Sunday, and it starts when the Packers have the ball.

Green Bay is a solid 10th in the league in points per game this season behind Aaron Rodgers. It is a testament to Rodgers’ status as one of the league's best players that the Packers are still one of the most dangerous scoring offenses.

Wide receiver Jordy Nelson has missed the entire season, Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams have dealt with injuries and the rushing attack behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks has been inconsistent at best.

Thanks to those factors, the Packers struggled in November with four losses in five games as the receivers failed to create separation downfield and the offense sputtered. However, Rodgers and company have won three straight games in December and scored at least 27 in all of them.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Cardinals defense will be without star defensive back Tyrann Mathieu after he tore his ACL in a Week 15 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, but they are still sixth in the league in points allowed per game and will make Green Bay one-dimensional with the NFL’s fourth-best run defense.

Safety Rashad Johnson is one of the players who will be asked to shoulder more of the defensive load without Mathieu, and he discussed his team’s need to bounce back from the injury setback, per Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com:

"

It’s no different than the life struggles we go through every day. Some of us have family members in hospitals or going through different things. But when we come to work we find a way to put that stuff aside and focus on the job at hand.

This is only going to give us more fire. We knew where we wanted to go, we knew where we were headed, and with Ty not with us, it’s going to drive us every day to make sure we get it done and do everything we can for him.

"

While Rodgers against the Arizona defense is intriguing, the true difference in this game will come when the Cardinals have the ball.

Arizona is second in the league in points per game at 31.8, while Green Bay is 22nd against the run. That means rookie running back and fantasy football favorite David Johnson will assume a starring role after he torched the Eagles for 187 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards and three touchdowns in Week 15.

The NFL shared one of Johnson’s most dynamic plays:

Randall Liu, the NFL's director of NFC football communications, put Johnson’s recent success in perspective:

Johnson will force the Packers to commit more defenders to the box, which will open up a potent aerial attack that features Carson Palmer and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd.

Mike Spofford of Packers.com doesn’t think Green Bay can hang with that group in a back-and-forth scoring affair: “Among many things, I think the defense has to hold tight in the red zone, and on offense they have to be able to run the ball and control time of possession. I don't think the Packers can win a shootout against that offense.”

There are simply too many weapons across the board on this Cardinals offense for the Packers to contain, and cornerback Patrick Peterson will take away Randall Cobb on the other side. With Cobb locked up, Green Bay will struggle to consistently move the ball downfield and match the explosive Arizona attack for the entire four quarters. 

Prediction: Cardinals 31, Packers 20