Week 16 Fantasy Football Projections: Flex, PPR Stat Predictions for Top 100

The most worrisome thing for fantasy football owners heading into Week 16 isn’t their upcoming opponents. Rather, it is a trip to the newswire to receive the latest NFL updates.

Between injuries and an unfortunately timed suspension, the status of a number of playmakers is up in the air heading into fantasy championship games across the country.

Odell Beckham Jr. was suspended, LeSean McCoy reportedly tore his MCL, Adrian Peterson suffered an ankle sprain, Marcus Mariota was ruled out with a knee injury, Alshon Jeffery was dealt a hamstring blow, Jonathan Stewart missed Week 15 and Jacksonville Jaguars running backs T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson are dealing with injuries.

Best of luck heading into your championship game.

Perhaps the best strategy is to arm yourself with as much information as possible. With that in mind, here is a list of rounded projections for the league’s top players heading into Week 16 that will help with flex decisions and lineup questions. The projections are based on a points-per-reception scoring system.

Quarterback

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	31
2	Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	28
3	Tom Brady, New England Patriots	New York Jets	26
4	Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals	Green Bay Packers	24
5	Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	24
6	Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints	Jacksonville Jaguars	23
7	Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints	23
8	Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	22
9	Kirk Cousins, Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	22
10	Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	20

In Week 16, Ben Roethlisberger gets a shot at a Baltimore Ravens team that appears to be playing out the string on the schedule with three straight losses and a number of injuries, including a season-ending setback for quarterback Joe Flacco.

Roethlisberger’s wide receiver corps is nearly unstoppable with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton destroying secondaries in the open field, and all Big Ben has to do is put it in the right spot. Roethlisberger posted 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Denver Broncos defense Sunday, which is stronger than Baltimore’s, and should put up monster numbers again.

Running Back

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals	Green Bay Packers	27
2	Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (speculating he will play)	New York Giants	24
3	Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	21
4	Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	20
5	Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	19
6	Chris Ivory, New York Jets	New England Patriots	18
7	Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs	Cleveland Browns	18
8	Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys	Buffalo Bills	17
9	DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	17
10	James White, New England Patriots	New York Jets	17
11	Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	16
11	Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	16
12	Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	16
13	Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	15
14	Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	15
15	Bilal Powell, New York Jets	New England Patriots	15
16	Tim Hightower, New Orleans Saints	Jacksonville Jaguars	14
17	Matt Forte, Chicago Bears	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12
18	Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	11
19	Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11
20	Antonio Andrews, Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	10
21	Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	10
22	Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins	Indianapolis Colts	10
23	James Starks, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	9
24	Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	9
25	Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	9
26	Alfred Blue, Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans	8
27	Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	8
29	Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers	Detroit Lions	7
30	Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	7

David Johnson saved fantasy owners’ seasons everywhere with 187 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday night’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and is arguably the waiver-wire pickup of the year for those shrewd enough to grab him.

Sports Illustrated weighed in on the rookie’s performance:

"

David Johnson is a good example of a player who is allowed to thrive in Arians' system, and would be lost on half the teams in the league.

— SI NFL (@si_nfl) December 21, 2015"

Next up is a Green Bay Packers defense that was ranked 22nd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game going into Monday night’s contest. Johnson should continue rolling against a vulnerable front seven in a game that has first-round bye implications for the playoffs.

There is so much fear of Carson Palmer and the Arizona wide receivers that rushing lanes open up for the rookie to attack. Johnson is also a threat in that passing attack with 335 receiving yards and four touchdown catches on the season and has the potential to carry fantasy owners yet again in Week 16.

Wide Receiver

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	23
2	DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans	21
3	Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (speculating he will appeal suspension and play in Week 16)	Minnesota Vikings	19
4	Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	18
5	Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	18
6	A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	17
7	Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints	16
8	Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	15
9	Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	15
10	Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	15
11	Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	14
12	Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys	Buffalo Bills	14
13	Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	14
14	Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	13
15	Brandon Marshall, New York Jets	New England Patriots	12
16	Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions	San Francisco 49ers	12
17	DeSean Jackson, Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	12
18	Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	11
19	Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints	10
20	Eric Decker, New York Jets	New England Patriots	10
21	Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs	Cleveland Browns	9
22	Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	9
23	Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals	Green Bay Packers	8
24	Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	8
25	Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints	Jacksonville Jaguars	7
26	Ted Ginn, Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	7
27	T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	7
28	Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	6
29	Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins	Indianapolis Colts	6
30	Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	6

Doug Baldwin is on an absolute tear with 10 touchdown catches the past four games and was on the waiver wire in plenty of leagues just a month ago. Now, he is one of the best fantasy weapons in the league, as NFL on ESPN highlighted:

In Week 16, Baldwin faces a St. Louis Rams defense that was 21st against the pass following Sunday’s action. Running backs Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls both suffered serious injuries, so Seattle turned the offense over to Russell Wilson, and he is connecting with Baldwin at an incredible rate.

That will continue against a vulnerable secondary.

Tight End

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots	New York Jets	15
2	Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	12
3	Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	11
4	Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns	Kansas City Chiefs	9
5	Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints	9
6	Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	8
7	Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chicago Bears	8
8	Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	7
9	Jordan Reed, Washington	Philadelphia Eagles	7
10	Benjamin Watson, New Orleans Saints	Jacksonville Jaguars	6

The Houston Texans defense is solid, but tight end Delanie Walker will serve as a safety valve for Zach Mettenberger as the backup fills in for the injured Mariota. Walker topped 50 receiving yards in his last 10 games and reached the 90-yard mark five times during that span.

He is also fresh off a two-touchdown performance Sunday against the New England Patriots and turned plenty of heads with plays like this, per the NFL:

“You probably saw the two best tight ends in the NFL,” interim Titans coach Mike Mularkey said after Walker and Rob Gronkowski traded touchdowns in Sunday’s game between the Titans and New England Patriots, per Jim Wyatt of Titans Online.

Walker plays for the Titans and is often overlooked for stars like Gronkowski, but he is a valuable weapon heading into the stretch run.

Kicker

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots	New York Jets	15
2	Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers	Arizona Cardinals	13
3	Steven Hauschka, Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	12
4	Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona Cardinals	Green Bay Packers	12
5	Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	11
6	Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	11
7	Jason Myers, Jacksonville Jaguars	New Orleans Saints	11
8	Cairo Santos, Kansas City Chiefs	Cleveland Browns	10
9	Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	10
10	Josh Brown, New York Giants	Minnesota Vikings	10

According to ESPN.com, the New York Giants allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing kickers in the league (as of Monday). That is exactly what Blair Walsh fantasy owners want to hear as the Minnesota Vikings prepare for a clash with New York. 

Walsh is a solid 27-of-32 on the season and has four field goals from beyond 50 yards. He will add to his impressive totals Sunday against a defense that has been particularly friendly toward kickers.

Defense

Rank	Defense	Opponent	Projections
1	Carolina Panthers	Atlanta Falcons	16
2	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	15
3	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	15
4	Kansas City Chiefs	Cleveland Browns	14
5	Houston Texans	Tennessee Titans	14
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	13
7	New England Patriots	New York Jets	13
8	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	13
9	Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	12
10	Miami Dolphins	Indianapolis Colts	11

The Seattle Seahawks were third in the league against the run after Sunday’s action and will look to force the Rams to be one-dimensional with Case Keenum by limiting Todd Gurley. If Seattle does just that, it will spell trouble for the St. Louis offense and create opportunities for plenty of fantasy points for those relying on Seattle’s defense.

Perhaps the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle defense will win you a fantasy title while your opponent worries about who to play in the flex position.