Daily Fantasy Football Week 15: Predicting DraftKings Top Performers and Busts

The pressure you’re feeling is DraftKings pricing tightening up as the daily fantasy football season crescendos into Week 15.

FantasyPros lists 39 players with a $500 or higher bump from Week 14, while just 12 were slashed at a similar rate. The result is far less value than we’re accustomed to seeing on the DraftKings slate.

Choosing the right pivots and values is more critical than ever. Plugging in the following top performers while avoiding the busts will help differentiate your lineup to stay in the black this weekend.  

Top Performers

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($7,000)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Palmer’s expected low ownership compared to Russell Wilson ($7,000) makes Palmer one of the strongest pivot plays of the week.

DFS Report lists Wilson (23.7) as the highest-owned quarterback on a competing site, more than tripling Palmer (7.3). Arizona’s 13-year veteran is Pro Football Focus’ second-rated QB behind Tom Brady ($7,800), ranking second in passer rating (106.9) behind Wilson (110.0).

The Cardinals sight in the Philadelphia Eagles on a Sunday-night flex, a soft passing defense ranking 31st in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Weather.com forecasts a cold but clear evening:

Credit: Weather.com

Las Vegas expects Arizona to hit at least 27 points on the road, implying Palmer is good for two to three passing touchdowns given the Cardinals’ 31-passing-to-12-rushing TD split.

Palmer’s price is a notable discount from Brady, Cam Newton ($7,800) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,400), while benefiting from low ownership in a great matchup, a difference-making pivot in GPPs.

Tim Hightower, RB, New Orleans Saints ($3,900)

Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport tweeted Hightower was expected to be New Orleans’ bellcow in Week 14, a prediction realized when he took 70.5 percent of the snaps on Sunday:

"

With the injury to #Saints RB Mark Ingram, I'm told to expect Tim Hightower to step in for him. CJ Spiller's workload likely to be unchanged

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 13, 2015"

Whatever Saints general manager Mickey Loomis saw in C.J. Spiller ($3,200) this offseason was clearly not shared by head coach Sean Payton.

Hightower’s efficiency (3.04 yards per carry) against a weak Buccaneers run defense is not inspiring, but his 29 touches led the league in opportunity last week. A mediocre Detroit Lions defense offers the same potential high volume for the feel-good veteran on Monday night.

Golden Tate III, WR, Detroit Lions ($5,500)

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Tate and the Lions passing game also enjoy a favorable matchup in a Monday night tilt Las Vegas expects to hit 51 points combined. The six-year veteran offers DFS owners a steady alternative to Calvin Johnson’s ($6,900) wildly inconsistent season.

Like Hightower, Tate’s efficiency leaves a lot to be desired—8.3 yards per reception over last six games. But peering through the numbers while considering a matchup against the league’s worst passing defense gathered interest among some of the industry’s top minds:

"

#Lions WR Golden Tate has caught at least 7 passes in 4 straight games. He has not topped 73 yards in any of those games. #Saints up next.

— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) December 17, 2015"

"

Golden Tate has forced the most missed tackles among WRs this season (23), followed by Jarvis Landry (19)

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 17, 2015"

"

Golden Tate averaging more targets per game (9.7) than Calvin Johnson (9.0) over the last four weeks.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 17, 2015"

"

Golden Tate has out-scored (PPR) and out-targeted Calvin Johnson in three of their past four games.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 17, 2015"

Tate offers high-floor access to Detroit’s side of a Monday night shootout, leaving $1,400 in your pocket to diversify with a top draw in a different game.

Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700)

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Speaking of access to a high-flying offense with a favorable opponent, Thomas figures to keep his four-game touchdown streak alive against a slumping Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 29th in points allowed to tight ends.

"

Four games in-a-row with a TD for @Julius_Thomas! pic.twitter.com/pNG6rTjpsR

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 13, 2015"

Thomas’ prospects are touchdown-dependent—he topped five receptions (nine) and 100 yards (116) just once during said streak:

Credit: DraftKings

Still, with Jacksonville expected to score 26, Thomas is a great GPP fit leading all tight ends in receiving touchdowns over the past four weeks.

Houston Texans DST ($2,500)

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Two keys to winning GPPs are identifying value and rostering contrarian players. The Texans defense and special teams provides both in a tantalizing matchup against their AFC South rivals, the Indianapolis Colts.

Multiple reports confirmed Andrew Luck ($6,500) will remain sidelined this week, but CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora added Matt Hasselbeck’s ($5,000) availability is still in question, leaving the door open for Charlie “Clipboard Jesus” Whitehurst ($5,000) to get the start:

"

Colts hope Andrew Luck back in Week 16. Ruled out for this week. Team hopeful Hasselbeck can come back by end of week. Otherwise Whitehurst

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) December 16, 2015"

Donte Moncrief’s ($4,300) Week 15 availability is also in question, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star:

"

Saw Donte Moncrief, who did not practice today and is still getting a lot of treatment. Said he will return tomorrow. We shall see.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) December 17, 2015"

J.J. Watt and company should feast no matter what cast of Colts pours onto Lucas Oil Stadium’s field, treating owners to a $1,700 discount from the Seattle Seahawks ($4,200).

Credit: DraftKings

Busts

A note about this week’s busts: I don’t feel strongly about any player owners aren’t already fading—Eli Manning ($5,600), Matt Forte ($6,500), Travis Kelce ($4,400), etc.

So the two players listed below are sure to be highly owned guys who should have good outings but could fall into negative game script and crap out this weekend.

Denard Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,600)

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The largest obstacle facing Robinson as he sizes up the Falcons’ 30th-ranked defense in points allowed to RBs is the possibility T.J. Yeldon could play this Sunday, according to ESPN.com’s Michael DiRocco on Twitter:

"

Jaguars coach Gus Bradley says it's too soon to rule RB TJ Yeldon out. Says Yeldon has made progress.

— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) December 17, 2015"

Jacksonville added journeyman Jonas Gray this week as well—as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter—who will likely fill only a reserve need in Week 15.

If Yeldon is out, Robinson should command the bulk of the carries for a pass-oriented Jaguars team ranked seventh in the NFL with a 62.21 percent passing percentage, per SportingCharts. The game script could call for the Jaguars to take to the air if Atlanta emerges from a late-season coma to exploit the league’s fifth-worst coverage unit.

Plus Robinson’s production fell off a cliff once defenses figured him out in 2014. Sunday marks his first start of 2015, allowing the Falcons a week to prepare, which they’ll need given such a poor track record against running backs (ranked 30th).

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers ($4,600)

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Gates is solidly positioned as Philip Rivers’ ($5,500) top target considering Chargers wide receivers are sidelined almost weekly. A Sunday date with the Miami Dolphins’ 27th-ranked pass coverage unit makes playing Gates even more palatable on paper.

But the Dolphins also rate as the best pass-rushing unit in the league, facing San Diego’s league-worst pass-blocking offensive line. Rivers isn’t likely to produce much of a threat through the air with little protection and no running game.

Plus, Miami renewed its commitment to the run by replacing pass-happy offensive coordinator Bill Lazor with Zac Taylor after Week 13. Lamar Miller ($6,300) tied for seventh in carries since Taylor took over. Expect the Dolphins to keep the ball on the ground and out of Rivers’ hands.

San Diego’s offense should be avoided all together as long as the unfortunate string of injuries continues to decimate the starting lineup.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by OddsShark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.

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