Fantasy Football Week 15: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 15 of the fantasy football season is underway. It’s time to bring you some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential and advance to the championship round of the fantasy playoffs.

This article will also provide player projections for the week’s top five options at each position.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson continues to roll, and he overtakes all quarterbacks to assume the top spot in Week 15, thanks in large part to his matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

At running back, Arizona Cardinals rookie David Johnson steps into the No. 3 spot, and right behind him is Lamar Miller of the Miami Dolphins. The ranking assumes, of course, that the Dolphins actually give Miller the ball this week.

At wide receiver, New York Giants stud Odell Beckham Jr. remains in the top five despite a tough matchup against the Carolina Panthers. And stepping into the No. 5 spot among wideouts is Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions, who could be in line for a big game this week.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 15.

Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson Assumes Top Spot

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Russell Wilson

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is playing the position as well as anyone right now, and it’s showing on the fantasy stat sheet. With a Week 15 tilt against the Cleveland Browns on tap, he is a no-brainer fantasy option.

The New England Patriots' Tom Brady, who has been in the top three all season long, also has a great matchup and should help guide fantasy teams to the championship round.

The Projections

1. Russell Wilson (vs. CLE): 18-of-26, 313 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 37 rushing yards—28.2 fantasy points
2. Cam Newton (at NYG): 22-of-30, 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 39 rushing yards—27.8 fantasy points
3. Tom Brady (vs. TEN): 32-of-43, 351 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—26.0 fantasy points
4. Carson Palmer (at PHI): 24-of-32, 332 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.3 fantasy points
5. Aaron Rodgers (at OAK): 23-of-35, 303 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Cleveland Browns have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. And that includes games against the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens (Matt Schaub), St. Louis Rams and Denver Broncos (when Peyton Manning was playing). In recent games against good quarterbacks—including against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 (Carson Palmer), the Cincinnati Bengals in Weeks 9 and 13 (Andy Dalton) and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10 (Ben Roethlisberger)—the Browns gave up just over 312 passing yards and three touchdowns per game. (Which, coincidentally is exactly what Wilson is projected to score—and that projection was made prior to discovering this stat, for what it’s worth.)

You were starting him anyway, but Brady is set for a huge game against the Tennessee Titans, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Titans have allowed quarterbacks to throw 11 touchdowns against them in the past three weeks combined.

From Weeks 1 to 11, the Denver Broncos D/ST gave up eight passing touchdowns. From Weeks 12 to 14, the Broncos gave up five passing touchdowns. Roethlisberger, whose Pittsburgh Steelers face the Broncos this week, is not a slam-dunk option, but the game isn’t as tough as it looked four weeks ago.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Palmer has the longest average depth of target at 11.3 yards. He should rack up the yards in a hurry against the Philadelphia Eagles this week.

A full 8 percent of Brady’s passes have been dropped this season, giving him the highest mark in the league. He has suffered 43 drops, while no other quarterback has seen more than 34.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan hasn’t been having a great season, but he does complete a league-high 59.1 percent of his passes when under pressure. He could have a strong outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as that game could turn into a shootout.

Running Backs: Lamar Miller a Top 5 Fantasy RB in Week 15

Brad Penner/Associated Press

Lamar Miller

Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller is ranked in the top five this week thanks to his juicy matchup against the San Diego Chargers. We just have to hope the Dolphins coaching staff realizes that giving Miller the ball is a good idea. We have more on his situation below.

Arizona Cardinals rookie David Johnson is ranked No. 3 this week. He’ll play the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been gashed by running back in recent weeks. Johnson could be in for big day both on the ground and through the air.

Todd Gurley of the St. Louis Rams and Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were both on the list, but they played on Thursday Night Football and were excluded.

The Projections

1. Adrian Peterson (vs. CHI): 23 carries, 131 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 43 yards—23.4 fantasy points
2. LeSean McCoy (at WAS): 21 carries, 118 yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 52 yards—23.0 fantasy points
3. David Johnson (at PHI): 20 carries, 102 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 41 yards—20.3 fantasy points
4. Lamar Miller (at SD): 16 carries, 94 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 46 yards—20.0 fantasy points
5. Devonta Freeman (at JAC): 17 carries, 80 yards; 6 receptions, 58 yards—19.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

Miller is playing against the San Diego Chargers this week, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com. Opposing teams’ backfields have gone for more than 100 yards against the Chargers in all but three games this season.

You can trust Seattle Seahawks running back Bryce Brown this week. He’ll face the Cleveland Browns, who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running back in 2015, according to ESPN.com. Only the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints have given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs so far this year.

Shy away from Darren McFadden of the Dallas Cowboys this week—or at least reduce him to a flex option. He’s playing the New York Jets, who have given up a league-low one rushing touchdown and a league-low 807 rushing yards this season, according to ESPN.com. In Week 12, the Miami Dolphins running backs gained eight yards on eight carries against the Jets, and in Week 14, the Tennessee Titans backfield racked up just nine yards on six carries against New York.

What the Metrics Say 

According to Pro Football Focus, Miller was in on 40 snaps last week, and he either touched the ball or had the opportunity to touch the ball on 35 percent of those snaps. The Dolphins need to increase his snap count, which was only at 57.1 percent last week.

Look for Ryan Mathews of the Philadelphia Eagles to become a fantasy asset as the season reaches its final stages. The Eagles seem content with reducing DeMarco Murray’s role in the offense—he saw only 22.2 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 13 and 32.1 percent of the snaps in Week 14—while Mathews saw about the same (25.9 percent in Week 14). However, Mathews has been much more efficient in terms of fantasy scoring, as he scores 0.57 fantasy points per opportunity, compared to Murray’s 0.30.

Thomas Rawls of the Seattle Seahawks is going to be tough to replace. He had the third-highest fantasy points per snap in the league this season, behind Mathews and Karlos Williams of the Buffalo Bills. Let’s hope Brown can be even half as efficient.

Wide Receivers: Calvin Johnson Set to Rebound in Week 15

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson came depressingly close to not catching a pass in Week 14—he ended the game with just one reception for 16 yards—but look for that to change in Week 15 when the Detroit Lions take on the New Orleans Saints. Megatron could have a huge game. We have more on him below.

New York Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr. also stays in the top five despite his tough matchup against Josh Norman and the Carolina Panthers. OBJ’s talent transcends all matchups, but Norman is nothing to scoff at.

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (at JAC): 10 receptions, 121 yards, 1 touchdown—18.1 fantasy points
2. DeAndre Hopkins (at IND): 9 receptions, 114 yards, 1 touchdown—17.4 fantasy points
3. Brandon Marshall (at DAL): 8 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points
4. Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. CAR): 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points
5. Calvin Johnson (at NO): 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 touchdown—14.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The New Orleans Saints have given up at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in all but one game this season. Don’t be surprised to see Megatron go for six points. The Saints have also been known to give up deep balls rather easily (See: Ginn, Ted in Week 13), so be on the lookout for a long touchdown—or two—for Megatron.

All three Arizona Cardinals wide receivers—Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd—are must-starts this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in 2015 and have given up nine receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in the past four weeks combined, per ESPN.com.

On the surface, it looks like Jacksonville Jaguars wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have a tough matchup this week against the Atlanta Falcons, who (surprisingly) have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, per ESPN.com. The Falcons have only allowed six touchdowns to go to wideouts in 2015. However, three of those touchdowns came in the past two weeks as the Falcons continue to unravel. You can trust Robinson and Hurns this week.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Carolina’s Norman allows a league-low 0.58 yards gained per coverage snap. If OBJ wants another 100-plus yard game, he has his work cut out for him.

No wide receiver in the league (with at least 25 targets) is targeted further down the field than Buffalo Bills second-year burner Sammy Watkins. Considering his high average depth of target, it’s surprising (in a good way) that Watkins’ catch rate is a solid 64 percent.

Eric Decker of the New York Jets has been arguably the most reliable fantasy wideout this season. But he’s also a reliable real receiver: When throwing Decker’s way, Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has an NFL quarterback rating of 120.0. No other wide receiver has a better rating (A.J. Green is with tied with Decker).

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski Back to His Usual Ways

George Bridges/Associated Press

Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski returned to action in Week 14 after sitting out Week 13, and he was back to his normal dominant self, catching a touchdown, reeling in long passes and bowling over defenders.

Gronk erased any questions about his health impacting his fantasy stats last week, and he’s the top option at the tight end position this week (and for the rest of the season).

The rest of the top five is similar to what it has been for the majority of this season. It’s somewhat boring to list the same five players every week, but it speaks to how solid these options are.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (vs. TEN): 6 receptions, 103 yards, 2 touchdowns—22.3 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (at NYG): 7 receptions, 109 yards, 1 touchdown—16.9 fantasy points
3. Jordan Reed (vs. BUF): 8 receptions, 87 yards, 1 touchdown—14.7 fantasy points
4. Delanie Walker (at NE): 7 receptions, 84 yards, 1 touchdown—14.4 fantasy points
5. Gary Barnidge (at SEA): 6 receptions, 77 yards, 1 touchdown—13.7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Fire up Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers as a tail-end TE1 this week. He’s playing the Oakland Raiders, who have given up a league-high 11 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Only the New Orleans Saints have allowed tight ends to score more fantasy points against them in 2015, per ESPN.com.

Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen should feast this week. He’s playing against the New York Giants, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. And with Jonathan Stewart (Carolina’s running back) out for Week 15, per Panthers.com's Max Henson, Carolina could rely on the pass—and thus, Olsen—even more.

Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge’s matchup appears to be tough—he’s playing the Seattle Seahawks—but it really isn’t all that bad. The Seahawks have actually given up the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Fantasy owners can still trust Barnidge this week, although it should be noted that in the past three weeks combined, tight ends have only scored a total of seven points against the Seahawks.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Gronkowski ran a season-low 27 pass routes in Week 14 as he worked his way back from injury. His four targets also tied a season low. However, he still gained 87 yards and scored. Even a limited Gronkowski is a beast.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is struggling, but he remains a talented player. He is averaging 7.9 yards after the catch, most among all tight ends with at least 30 targets. The Chiefs should do a better job of getting him the ball with room to run.

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas has been hot recently, but he’s still not all that efficient when it comes to gaining yards (i.e. he’s overly reliant on touchdowns). He is gaining just 1.20 yards per route run this season, which ranks 20th out of 23 qualifying tight ends.

Kickers: Chandler Catanzaro Rises to the No. 3 Spot

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Chandler Catanzaro

Like the tight end rankings, the kicker rankings don’t change much each week.

However, it’s worth nothing that Chandler Catanzaro of the Arizona Cardinals has risen to the No. 3 spot this week. He typically hovers closer to the No. 5 spot. 

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. TEN): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (vs. CLE): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
3. Chandler Catanzaro (at PHI): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Graham Gano (at NYG): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Cairo Santos (at BAL): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

Catanzaro is the (tied for) third-highest scoring kicker in fantasy this season, per ESPN.com. He has attempted at least two field goals per game every week since Week 6. Additionally, in Week 15, he’s playing the Philadelphia Eagles, who are still the only team in the league a kicker has not missed against.

Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby is worth a start this week. He’ll face the Oakland Raiders, who have given up the most fantasy points per game to kickers so far this season, according to ESPN.com.

Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens has a dicey matchup in Week 15. He’ll play the Kansas City Chiefs, who have given up just four field goals in the past six games combined.

Defense and Special Teams: New York Jets an Elite Option in Week 15

Peter Morgan/Associated Press

The New York Jets D/ST is owned in about 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues, so there’s little chance it is available on the waiver wire, but if you are in that lucky 10 percent, you should give the Jets unit a look this week. Find out why below.

The Projections

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. CLE): 14 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks
2. Kansas City Chiefs (at BAL): 16 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks
3. New England Patriots (vs. TEN): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 5 sacks
4. Carolina Panthers (at NYG): 23 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
5. New York Jets (at DAL): 23 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

The Dallas Cowboys have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season, per ESPN.com, which is why the New York Jets rank so high. The Cowboys have only gone two games this season without turning the ball over.

The Seattle Seahawks are the No. 1 D/ST unit this week by a wide margin. A wide margin. They are playing the Cleveland Browns, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this year. D/STs have averaged almost 13 points per game against the Browns since Week 6.

The New England Patriots D/ST is also a must-start this week. The Patriots are playing the Tennessee Titans, the second-best team a D/ST unit could hope to face this year. The Titans have given up double-digit fantasy points to D/STs in seven games. 

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.