NFL Picks Week 15: Advice for Current Vegas Odds, Spreads and Over-Under Lines

There's a belief in sports that no teams is as good as it looks when it's at its best, and no team is as awful as it looks when it's at its worst.

If that's the case, it may explain why the Jacksonville Jaguars are just a three-point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, according to Odds Shark.

The Jaguars are coming off a 51-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Falcons were blitzed by the undefeated Carolina Panthers 38-0.

The Jaguars have won three of their last five games, while the Falcons are in a brutal tailspin, having dropped six games in a row and seven of their last eight.

If the line was based just on the current trends, the homestanding Jaguars would be seven-point favorites or more.

It seems like the oddsmakers are inviting us to take a flier on the Jaguars. 

We are inclined to believe that the Jaguars have an excellent chance of beating the Falcons by a lot more than a field goal. The Jacksonville offense is on fire thanks to the passing of Blake Bortles and the receiving of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.

Bortles has thrown for 3,524 yards and fired 30 touchdown passes. Robinson and Hurns have combined for 20 TD receptions.

It seems that it's just a matter of time before the Jaguars string touchdowns together. While the Jaguars have been scoring, the Falcons offense has been stalled.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has been struggling since the Falcons have started to lose games. He has a 17-14 TD-to-interception ratio, and he is no longer decisive in his execution.

Look for the Jaguars to take control of this game in the second half and win by double digits.

Game	Line	Over-Under	Selection
Tampa Bay at St. Louis	Even	41	Tampa Bay; Over
New York Jets at Dallas	N.Y. Jets -3	42	New York Jets; Under
Carolina at New York Giants	Carolina -4	__	Carolina
Buffalo at Washington	Even	43.5	Buffalo; Over
Atlanta at Jacksonville	Jacksonville -3	48.5	Jacksonville; Over
Chicago at Minnesota	Minnesota -4.5	43	Minnesota; Under
Tennessee at New England	New England -12.5	47	New England; Over
Kansas City at Baltimore	Kansas City -7	42	Baltimore; Under
Houston at Indianapolis	No line	--	Indianapolis
Cleveland at Seattle	Seattle -14	43	Seattle; Under
Green Bay at Oakland	Green Bay -2.5	46.5	Oakland; Over
Miami at San Diego	Even	__	San Diego
Denver at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -6.5	44.5	Pittsburgh; Over
Cincinnati at San Francisco	Cincinnati -4	40.5	San Francisco; Over
Arizona at Philadelphia	Arizona -3.5	50.5	Arizona; Under
Detroit at New Orleans	New Orleans -3	51	New Orleans; Over

Chiefs play it tight and will hold Ravens in check

The Kansas City Chiefs are pulling off one of the greatest in-season comebacks in recent memory. The Chiefs were going down the drain in the first half of the season, as the team was dogged by poor play on defense and key injuries in losing six of their first seven games.

But while most thought the Chiefs were a disaster, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid did not. Reid managed to keep his team together, and the Chiefs picked up their level of play. They found a running back in Charcandrick West (462 rushing yards) who could handle the load following the Jamaal Charles injury, and the secondary has turned its season around.

The Chiefs have won seven games in a row, and they are doing it with old-style, conservative football.

The Chiefs want to use their running game and the short-passing offense of Alex Smith to dictate the pace of the game.

That's the way they played in their 10-3 win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 14, and they can be expected to play a similar game at Baltimore against the injury-ravaged Ravens.

The Ravens are missing Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett or Steve Smith Sr., so the conservative game plan may work best. The over-under is 42 points, and this game will not get out of the 30s. Take the under without any hesitation.

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Panthers find a way to keep streak alive against Giants

There's still a good portion of the football world that needs convincing that the Carolina Panther are an elite team.

Their record says they are, as Carolina has reeled off 13 straight victories. They are trying to join the 2007 New England Patriots by going 16-0 in the regular season.

Even though they have one of the most aggressive defenses in the league as a result of the hard-hitting play of Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly (combined for seven interceptions, six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries), it doesn't seem like the oddsmakers are giving them much respect.

The Panthers are just a four-point favorite against the Giants, even though New York has a losing record.

The Panthers have a legitimate MVP candidate in Cam Newton, and he is going to enjoy playing on the New York stage against one of the weakest defenses in the league. It should be a game where the Giants make mistakes, while the Panthers don't.

It sets up as another convincing win for the Panthers, who can smell that undefeated regular season. Take the Panthers and lay the points.

All stats courtesy of CBS Sports unless otherwise noted.