NFL Week 12 Picks: Vegas Odds and Predictions Before Thursday Games

Here's to the holidays and one of America's great sporting traditions: pro football on Thanksgiving. 

The usual suspects are involved. The Detroit Lions are hosting Philadelphia. The Lions will be playing their 76th Turkey Day contest, the most of any NFL team by far. Dallas is, of course, also on the slate, as are two of the league's oldest franchises, the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

There is a Thanksgiving newcomer in the undefeated Carolina Panthers. Here are the Thanksgiving records for all six teams playing on the holiday.

Team	Thanksgiving Record
Detroit Lions	35-38-2
Dallas Cowboys	29-17-1
Green Bay Packers	14-19-2
Chicago Bears	16-15-1
Philadelphia Eagles	6-0
Carolina Panthers	0-0

While the three games have an undeniably special feel, there are more games beyond Thursday in Week 12. The bye weeks are done; everything's on the table.

Here's a look at the latest Vegas odds and some predictions for Week 12. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, November 26 at 7 a.m. ET.

Thursday, November 26
Sunday, November 29
Monday, November 30
Time (ET)	Away	Home	Over/Under	Prediction
12:30 p.m.	Philadelphia Eagles	Detroit Lions (-2.5)	46	DET 20-17 PHI
4:30 p.m.	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)	45.5	CAR 24-20 DAL
8:30 p.m.	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers (-8.5)	45	GB 26-17 CHI
1 p.m.	Minnesota Vikings (even)	Atlanta Falcons (even)	45.5	MIN 23-21 ATL
1 p.m.	St. Louis Rams	Cincinnati Bengals (-10)	42	CIN 30-19 STL
1 p.m.	New Orleans Saints	Houston Texans (-3)	47.5	HOU 34-30 NO
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Indianapolis Colts (-3)	46	TB 24-20 IND
1 p.m.	San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)	46.5	SD 23-21 JAX
1 p.m.	Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs (-7)	41.5	BUF 28-24 KC
1 p.m.	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets (-3)	42.5	NYJ 20-14 MIA
1 p.m.	Oakland Raiders (even)	Tennessee Titans (even)	44	OAK 21-20 TEN
1 p.m.	New York Giants (-2.5)	Washington Redskins	47	NYG 33-28 WAS
4:05 p.m.	Arizona Cardinals (-11.5)	San Francisco 49ers	44.5	AZ 37-20 SF
4:25 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)	46	SEA 23-20 PIT
8:30 p.m.	New England Patriots (-2.5)	Denver Broncos	43.5	NE 27-21 DEN
8:30 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns (-2.5)	41	CLE 26-17 BAL

Turkey Day Preview

Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) vs. Detroit Lions (3-7)

It's been a trying season for Philadelphia under head coach Chip Kelly. The franchise gave him complete control, allowing him to bring in the likes of Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray among others. Bradford has struggled mightily and won't even start on Thanksgiving because of—surprise, surprise—his various injury problems. Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Mark Sanchez will get the call again after starting in Week 11.

Murray was misused and ineffective early on, though he has since found a groove in this offense by getting more involved in the passing game. Still, it hasn't been enough for Philadelphia to find any sort of consistency as a whole, so here they are on Thanksgiving, visiting the Lions and coming off their worst game of the season, a 45-17 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 11.

Detroit is on an ugly two-game winning streak, needing just 18 points in consecutive contests to take down two admittedly good teams in Green Bay and Oakland. Matthew Stafford played a clean, turnover-free game against the Raiders, and his last five games have been much better than his first five. 

Time Frame	CMP/ATT	YDS	CMP %	AVG	TD	INT	Rating
First Five Games	126/195	1,205	64.62	6.18	6	8	74.8
Last Five Games	113/177	1,402	63.84	7.92	9	4	95.8

Stafford will be looking to take advantage of an Eagles defense that allowed five touchdown passes to rookie Jameis Winston on Sunday. Cornerback Byron Maxwell has been a major disappointment. Philly should find it tough to cover Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on Thursday. 

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

The Lions running game has been an absolute mess this year. If there is ever a chance for Detroit to get its running game going, Week 12 would be it. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press noted the Eagles' struggles against the run:

"

Ameer Abdullah saw his workload increase last week against the Raiders, and he could be in for a similar role Thursday against the Eagles’ 3-4 defense. Theo Riddick leads all NFL running backs in receptions, and Joique Bell had two big runs late in Sunday’s win over the Raiders but is best used in small doses.

The Eagles rank 28th against the run (128.5 yards per game) and have struggled to stop backs like Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart. Fletcher Cox is a stout run defender who must be accounted for on every play, while middle linebacker Kiko Alonso hasn’t looked the same since returning from a knee injury.

"

Philly's best course of action is to take the running game away early and dare Stafford to beat them. If they can force him into a couple of mistakes, the offense has enough juice to get the necessary points to get a win.

This is a game for Abdullah to show the Lions they can trust him to pick up the tough yards and take care of the football. It's late enough in the season that they should try to see what they have in the rookie back while leaving the passing downs to Riddick. If Detroit can play keep away, they should be able to eke out a tough win.

Carolina Panthers (10-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-7) 

The Carolina Panthers are undefeated, fourth in the league in rushing and have an MVP candidate in quarterback Cam Newton. Somehow, this hasn't stopped the oddsmakers from picking the Dallas Cowboys as the favorites at home on Thanksgiving.

It's a pretty bizarre thing to see, not that it matters to Panthers cornerback Josh Norman.

"You know what, I'm going to try to be as G-rated as I can...PG-rated," he said, per Tadd Haislop of the Sporting News. We don’t give a you know what. At the end of the day, we’re 10-0. We defeated the class of the NFC."

These odd-looking odds are mostly due to the presence of Tony Romo, who made a triumphant return in Week 11, leading the Boys to a 24-14 win over the Miami Dolphins after a seven-game absence. He didn't play particularly well against the Fins, throwing two touchdowns against two interceptions, but it was clear the team was much more confident and cohesive than it was with Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel at the helm.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Sure enough, Dallas is undefeated this year when Romo's on the field. ESPN's Trey Wingo noted he tends to play pretty well on Thanksgiving:

Those are comforting numbers for Cowboys fans, although Romo doesn't always play a defense as good as Carolina's on the holidays. The Panthers are capable of shutting down his top target in Dez Bryant with Norman.

Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are tackling machines, and a pass rush led by Kony Ealy and Mario Addison—8.5 sacks this season between the two—will give the Cowboys' vaunted offensive line all it can handle. 

Dallas has found some semblance of stability in its running game with Darren McFadden, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his last five outings. NFL Network pointed out he's seen plenty of the football in recent weeks:

If the Panthers can keep McFadden from breaking the big play, they should be able to contain the Cowboys offense as Romo looks to get back into the swing of things (on a quick turnaround, no less). Carolina can control the clock with Newton and Jonathan Stewart on the carry, forcing Dallas to make good on what opportunities come its way. 

The Panthers will drop a game eventually—just not this week. Look for them to build up an early lead and hold on when Romo leads Dallas to a late surge.

Chicago Bears (4-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

There's no way Green Bay drops this game, right? The Packers are at home, coming off a big 30-13 win over divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings, it's a holiday and, to top it all off, they're retiring Brett Favre's No. 4 jersey at halftime. 

The only way to truly honor one of the best signal-callers to ever play the game would be to beat down an NFC North foe. 

It certainly helps that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has been mostly terrible in his career against Green Bay. In 12 regular-season games against the Packers, dating back to his days in Denver, Cutler has thrown just 15 touchdowns and 22 interceptions, with a 67.5 quarterback rating, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. In Week 1 of 2015 against the Pack, he threw for 225 yards, one TD and one interception. 

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

After two strong outings against the Chargers and the Rams, he put up an uninspiring performance against Denver in Week 11, throwing for 265 yards and one pick. The cold rain on AccuWeather.com's forecast probably won't help.

If there is a hope for Chicago, it's going to come from two guys lining up a bit deeper in the backfield. Matt Forte is set to return from his knee injury on Thursday. He ran for 141 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Depending on how the Bears play this, he'll either be joined or spelled by rookie Jeremy Langford, who did yeoman's work taking over as the primary back while Forte nursed his wounds.

At the very least, the Packers defenders know they can't relax when Forte is off the field. If Langford joins him for some two-back sets, Chicago could be dangerous.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

With Eddie Lacy back to his hard-running ways after briefly giving way to James Starks, Green Bay also has two strong backs to turn to on the ground. Lacy picked up 100 yards against a strong Vikings defense. He did it by going back to the basics when he got the ball, finding the hole and hitting it.

"I just made up my mind, and I went with it," Lacy said, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky. "I didn't try to make too much of a play or try to make a cut where a cut wasn't. Pretty much just seeing it and just hit it. And I had lower pad level, so when I ran into cuts, I was still able to fall forward."

Aaron Rodgers completed under half his passes in Week 11 against Minnesota for the first time in what felt like forever, but he was good enough to throw two TDs without a pick. After a brief mid-season swoon, Rodgers has regained his mojo in recent weeks.

He probably won't be asked to do much to get the Packers a win if the weather is bad. In any case, Chicago's young defense is ripe for this master to exploit. Look for the home side to come away with a fairly comfortable win in this one.