Week 12 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spreads and Predictions

A few weeks ago, the Thanksgiving matchups seemed meaningless and one-sided, but we have seen some interesting shifts in the NFL over the past few weeks. This should create some exciting battles to watch while you overeat.

Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans have transformed their outlook over the last month, while the Atlanta Falcons and St. Louis Rams did the same in the other direction. The teams set to play on Thursday have seen some of the same movement, resulting in different predictions than what we would have made earlier in the year.

It is important to follow the latest trends in the NFL, and that has never been truer than with this week's picks.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick
Philadelphia Eagles	13-17	Detroit Lions	DET -2
Carolina Panthers	21-24	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -1.5
Chicago Bears	16-23	Green Bay Packers	CHI +8.5
Buffalo Bills	14-16	Kansas City Chiefs	BUF +6.5
Minnesota Vikings	20-17	Atlanta Falcons	MIN +1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28-27	Indianapolis Colts	TB +3
St. Louis Rams	10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -9
Miami Dolphins	13-20	New York Jets	NYJ -3.5
San Diego Chargers	24-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -4
New York Giants	30-21	Washington Redskins	NYG -3
Oakland Raiders	17-20	Tennessee Titans	TEN +2
New Orleans Saints	31-38	Houston Texans	HOU -3
Arizona Cardinals	34-13	San Francisco 49ers	ARI -10
Pittsburgh Steelers	21-20	Seattle Seahawks	PIT +4
New England Patriots	24-23	Denver Broncos	DEN +3
Baltimore Ravens	17-21	Cleveland Browns	CLE -2.5

Thanksgiving Predictions

Detroit Lions (-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

It's amazing how much a bye can help transform a team. The Detroit Lions hit rock bottom with a 45-10 loss to the Chiefs in London, but they have come back with two impressive consecutive wins over the Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders.

"It's a great turnaround," cornerback Darius Slay explained, per Noah Trister of the Associated Press. "We told ourselves, 'We're just going to start over.' It was rough in the first eight weeks, now we're just turning the whole thing around -- playing more aggressive defense, just playing and trusting each other and having more fun."

Slay has been a big part of the success, as the third-year player has become a shutdown cornerback in recent weeks. His play has helped the Lions shut down two high-powered offenses in a row, limiting them to just 29 points combined.

There is no reason to expect this recent success to slow down against a struggling Philadelphia Eagles offense. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network noted Sam Bradford might remain out this week:

In reality, the Eagles have struggled enough that it doesn't matter whether Bradford or Mark Sanchez is under center—winning on the road will be extremely difficult.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers have cruised to a 10-0 start to the season thanks mostly to the play of Cam Newton. However, it's important to note Tony Romo is also undefeated as a starter this season (3-0).

While the Dallas Cowboys struggled immensely with backups Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel, the defense and run game behind Darren McFadden was more than adequate. All that was missing was a quarterback to bring it all together, and Romo does that and more. He injects life into the squad and will be able to get the most out of playmakers like Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.

Additionally, Gil Brandt of NFL.com noted Romo has had success against seemingly unbeatable teams in the past:

Carolina isn't overrated, as some would say, but this squad isn't perfect. The receivers aren't good enough to take advantage of a weak Cowboys secondary, while the strong defensive line won't have the same impact it usually has against this offensive line.

The Cowboys have what it takes to pull off one of the bigger upsets of the 2015 season by record, without it even being an upset based on the spread.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) at Green Bay Packers

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Injuries have been a major storyline for the Chicago Bears this season, and things won't necessarily be much better Thursday, although Adam Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times reported Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery are expected to play.

This would be a major upgrade to an offense that has struggled immensely for most of the year.

Defensively, the unit has now gone three games in a row without allowing 20 points to an opponent, and the group is keeping the team in games. Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy noted the obvious upgrade:

While the Chicago defense was awful in Week 1, the team was still able to hang around for an eight-point loss, meaning there should be little doubt this group can do the same in Week 12.

Of course, the Packers are still the better team and are playing at home. Aaron Rodgers got back on track last week against the Minnesota Vikings, while Eddie Lacy is finally starting to look like the running back he was last season. This should be more than enough to beat their rivals on Thanksgiving.

Still, this battle will be much closer than some anticipate.

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