Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for Sunday's Games, Odds Guide, Over-Under Tips

With the exception of a few teams, defense has ruled the way for much of the 2015 season. This could continue in Week 11.

The top-six teams in the NFL in points allowed per game are a combined 46-9, including both undefeated squads. Aside from the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and whoever is facing the New Orleans Saints, points have often been hard to come by this season. 

Adding in a bunch of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, this could be one of the lower-scoring weeks of the year. This is something to consider when examining betting lines and over-under picks. Here is a look at the latest predictions for each with a breakdown of the best totals to target.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick	O/U
Denver Broncos	13-16	Chicago Bears	CHI -1	Under 41
Dallas Cowboys	20-21	Miami Dolphins	MIA +1	Under 47
Oakland Raiders	34-28	Detroit Lions	OAK -1	Over 49.5
Indianapolis Colts	17-20	Atlanta Falcons	IND +5.5	Under 47.5
St. Louis Rams	23-17	Baltimore Ravens	STL +2.5	Under 41.5
Washington Redskins	14-24	Carolina Panthers	CAR -7	Under 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27-28	Philadelphia Eagles	TB +6	Over 45
New York Jets	17-13	Houston Texans	NYJ -2.5	Under 41
Kansas City Chiefs	20-10	San Diego Chargers	KC -3	Under 45
Green Bay Packers	17-21	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -1	Under 44
San Francisco 49ers	16-27	Seattle Seahawks	SF +12.5	Over 39.5
Cincinnati Bengals	27-34	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -5	Over 48.5
Buffalo Bills	20-31	New England Patriots	NE -7	Over 48.5

Top Over-Under Picks

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (Under 41)

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Although Peyton Manning hasn't really seemed like his normal self this season, he is still one of the best quarterbacks of all time and brought a lot of confidence to the huddle. That might not be there with Brock Osweiler making his first career start for the Denver Broncos this week.

The Chicago Bears will do what they can to throw the inexperienced passer off his game.

"It's really important to get after him early, especially when you're a guy getting your first start," said outside linebacker Sam Acho, per Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com. "When you get your first start you're trying to go out there and prove something, so we want to make sure he's not proving anything against us."

Denver doesn't even have the advantage of unfamiliarity, considering Bears head coach John Fox spent the past few seasons watching Osweiler every day in practice. They will know his strengths and weaknesses and create a game plan that will cause problems.

The only positive for the Broncos is that the defense is still one of the best in the NFL. Aqib Talib will be back in action to pair with Chris Harris in the secondary to lead the No. 1 pass defense in the league. This will cause problems for Jay Cutler, especially with key offensive playmakers still dealing with injuries.

While you wouldn't have expected a defensive struggle between these teams a year ago, that is what should happen Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Under 45)

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While the big story in the Kansas City Chiefs recent win over the Broncos was Manning's struggles, the Kansas City Chiefs have caused these types of problems to a bunch of quarterbacks lately. After some bad games to start the year, the pass defense has been much better thanks to an ability to force turnovers, per Evan Silva of Rotoworld:

As a result, the Chiefs are averaging just 14 points allowed over the past five games with no opponent scoring more than 20 points.

Per Jamie Erdahl of CBS Sports, head coach Andy Reid credited Eric Berry's progression, who missed most of last season after being diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma:

With a great pass rush up front, the Chiefs are now capable of slowing down even the better passing attacks in the NFL. This includes the San Diego Chargers, who seemingly throw the ball every play. Philip Rivers has played well, but he is running out of targets and doesn't have much blocking in front of him, likely limiting what he will be able to do Sunday.

Although the Chiefs offense has been effective with Charcandrick West running the ball, it is not exactly terrifying opponents. The Chargers defense should be at least able to keep the game close and low-scoring throughout.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Over 48.5) 

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

Even in a low-scoring week, there will still be some games that light up the scoreboard. This includes just about any game the New England Patriots play in this season.

What Tom Brady has done this year has been incredible, and not just because of his age. The Patriots have lost key players on the offensive line as well as two of the most important skill players on the roster, per ESPN Stats and Info:

However, the coaching staff continues to put Brady in a good position to succeed, and he will keep finding targets who can make plays. As long as the future Hall of Fame quarterback is under center, the team will be fine.

Rob Gronkowski can be expected to post huge numbers while Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell will step up in the passing game. New players will come in, but the results will be the same.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have been much better offensively now that they are healthy. Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins and Karlos Williams have all missed time this season, but the starting quarterback and dynamic skill players are back in the lineup and ready to cause problems for the Patriots defense.

Even if this game doesn't match the 40-32 battle between these teams in Week 2, this one should be another high-scoring contest.

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