Fantasy Football Week 11: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 11 of the fantasy football season began Thursday night when the Jacksonville Jaguars took on the Tennessee Titans in a game that was at least supposed to have a decent amount of fantasy relevance (although it didn’t exactly play out that way). With one game in the books but a whole slate of action still to come this week, it’s time to look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

This article will also provide player projections for the week’s top five options at each position.

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr finds himself ranked among the elite heading into Week 11. In fact, he’s ranked ahead of the reigning NFL MVP this week. Inside, you’ll find out why Carr’s matchup warrants this lofty ranking.

At running back, Kansas City Chiefs' breakout star Charcandrick West has officially done enough to slide into the top five at the position. Find out why he’s one of the best bets to place this weekend.

We also have insight on West's teammate—tight end Travis Kelce—and his Week 11 matchup. Learn why he’s in line for a touchdown this weekend against the San Diego Chargers.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 11.

Quarterbacks: Derek Carr Steps into Top 3

Beck Diefenbach/Associated Press

Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is a surprise at the No. 3 spot this week—ahead of stalwarts such as Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer—but the stats and metrics say that’s right where he belongs. We have more on him below.

Speaking of Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers signal-caller remains in the top five but isn't ranked No. 1 or No. 2 like usual because of his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. 

The Projections

1. Tom Brady (vs. BUF) 29-of-41, 372 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—26.9 fantasy points
2. Cam Newton (vs. WAS): 20-of-29, 271 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions; 55 rushing yards—24.3 fantasy points
3. Derek Carr (at DET): 23-of-35, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.2 fantasy points
4. Aaron Rodgers (at MIN): 25-of-36, 330 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—21.2 fantasy points
5. Carson Palmer (vs. CIN): 19-of-28, 303 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions—20.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Derek Carr enters Week 11 tied for third among all quarterbacks with 21 touchdown passes. And he’s as hot as anyone right now, as 13 of those 21 scores have come in the past four weeks. He’s also riding a three-game streak in which he's thrown for at least 300 passing yards.

Add in the fact he’s playing against the Detroit Lions—who have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com—and it’s easy to see why he holds the No. 3 spot this week.

On the other side of the field in that Lions-Raiders game will be Matthew Stafford. He should also have a strong game this week, as the Raiders have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have thrown an average of 43 passes per game against Oakland this season. That’s a ton of volume.

Rodgers is ranked No. 4—which may seem odd because he’s typically ranked higher than that. However, he’s playing against Minnesota, a division rival who hasn’t allowed a quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns in any game this season. The Vikings have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, per ESPN.com.

What the Metrics Say 

The Green Bay Packers should be able to pressure Teddy Bridgewater. He has seen pressure on nearly half (45.9 percent) of his dropbacks, most among all quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. When under pressure, he completes only 48 percent of his passes.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leads the league in passing yards, but he should have even more: He also leads all quarterbacks with 27 suffered dropped passes. Those 27 drops have resulted in at least 227 lost yards.

Look for the Washington Redskins to attempt to neutralize the Carolina Panthers defense via play-action passing. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completes 73.2 percent of his passes off of play action—the third-best completion rate on play-action passes among all quarterbacks. And his NFL quarterback rating on such passes is 120.6, trailing only Brady.

Running Backs: Charcandrick West Is a Top-5 Option This Week

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West is an elite option this week. While he has been solid in his own right, his matchup vaults him into the top five.

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is also back in the top five. It has been an up-and-down season for him in 2015, but he's still capable of making anyone miss. We have the proof below.

The Projections

1. Devonta Freeman (vs. IND): 21 carries, 114 yards, 1 touchdown; 7 receptions, 53 yards, 1 touchdown—28.7 fantasy points
2. Adrian Peterson (vs. GB): 26 carries, 140 yards, 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 23 yards—22.3 fantasy points
3. Todd Gurley (at BAL): 22 carries, 117 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 31 yards—20.8 fantasy points
4. Charcandrick West (at SD): 21 carries, 105 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 34 yards—19.9 fantasy points
5. Marshawn Lynch (vs. SF): 20 carries, 90 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 42 yards—19.2 fantasy points 

Stats to Know 

So why does West rank so high in Week 11? It’s because he’s playing against the San Diego Chargers, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Chargers have given up more than 100 rushing yards to opposing teams’ running backs in all but two games this season, and they have given up at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in all but three games.

Gurley does not have the greatest matchup of the weekend—he's playing against the Baltimore Ravens, who are the 10th-best team at slowing down opposing fantasy running backs, per ESPN.com—but he should transcend the matchup by way of pure talent and high volume. With Case Keenum now under center for the Rams, look for Gurley to do a little bit more than usual—which is already quite a bit.

He would be a bona fide RB1 this week based on expected volume alone, but he jumps into the top three when you add his skill and penchant for long runs into the mix. And it's not like the Ravens are bulletproof—they did give up 122 rushing yards and a score to Chris Johnson of the Arizona Cardinals just a few weeks ago.

Speaking of Johnson, he and his Arizona Cardinals teammate Andre Ellington have a tough matchup this week. They will be playing against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have given up only two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season long. They have, however, given up three receiving touchdowns to running backs, so don’t be surprised if either Johnson or Ellington (most likely Ellington) finds the end zone via the air in Week 11.

What the Metrics Say 

One reason why Lynch still ranks so high despite a less-than-stellar season is that he remains one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, only New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis (who is injured) has been more elusive than Lynch this season.

Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller is not thought of as a “bruiser,” but he’s more physical than people give him credit for. He’s averaging 3.11 yards after contact, second-most among all running backs with at least 80 carries.

Don’t be afraid to start New York Giants running back Shane Vereen as a flex player in points-per-reception leagues. He has run 191 pass routes in 2015, ninth-most among all running backs.

Wide Receivers: Mike Evans an Elite WR This Week

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Mike Evans

We highlighted Tampa Bay’s second-year wide receiver Mike Evans last week, and this week, he is ranked in the top five. Find out why his matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles warrants such an elite ranking.

We also see Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant ranked No. 2 this week. He’s set to dominate down the stretch with Tony Romo throwing him the ball again. Find out what you can expect from Bryant in Week 11.

We also dug up metrics that suggest Danny Amendola may not be the one who fully replaces Julian Edelman in New England. We have more on that below.

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (vs. IND): 11 receptions, 137 yards, 1 touchdown—19.7 fantasy points
2. Dez Bryant (at MIA): 7 receptions, 128 yards, 1 touchdown—18.8 fantasy points
3. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. NYJ): 10 receptions, 113 yards, 1 touchdown—17.3 fantasy points
4. Calvin Johnson (vs. OAK): 8 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points
5. Mike Evans (at PHI): 8 receptions, 153 yards—15.3 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

Buffalo Bills wideout Sammy Watkins had a down game in Week 10, but he should bounce back in Week 11 against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season, per ESPN.com.

Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions is projected to score a touchdown (see above), but it won’t come easy, as the Oakland Raiders—his Week 11 opponent—have given up only four touchdowns to receivers so far this season. So why the reason for optimism? Two of those four touchdowns have come in the previous three games.

From Week 2 on, the Miami Dolphins have ceded at least one receiving touchdown to a wideout in every game. That’s good news for Dez Bryant, who should come up big for fantasy owners in Week 11 thanks to the return of Romo.

The Philadelphia Eagles have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts so far this season, according to ESPN.com. They have also given up four passing touchdowns to wide receivers over the past two weeks alone. A strong outing for Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—who gets to play against the Eagles this week—is in the cards.

What the Metrics Say 

If it seems like Eric Decker is having a great season for the New York Jets, that’s because he is. In fact, he leads all wide receivers with a 133.6 WR Rating—a Pro Football Focus statistic that measures a quarterback’s NFL QB rating when throwing toward a specific wideout. In other words, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s NFL QB rating is 133.6 when targeting Decker, and no QB-WR combination in the league posts a higher number.

Bryant, on the other hand, has a WR Rating of 71.0. But look for that to jump with Romo throwing him the ball; Bryant’s WR Rating was 121.2 last season—seventh-best among all wideouts.

Amendola may not be a pure  Edelman replacement. So far this season, Amendola has run 85.8 percent of his routes from the slot. But Edelman was much more than a slot man, despite the perception. In fact, only about half (51.2 percent) of his routes came from the slot. Amendola will obviously see a boost in production, but he's not the same type of player as Edelman.

Tight Ends: Travis Kelce Set to Rebound in Week 11

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is primed for a strong rebound game in Week 11. He has caught at least five passes in four straight games, but he has only one touchdown to show for it. Find out below why he should have no problem reaching that catch milestone again—and why this time, one of those catches will result in a score.

We also have more on San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, who hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 12 when he played against the Pittsburgh Steelers (his first game of the season). Fair warning: San Diego Union-Tribune beat writer Michael Gehlken wrote on Twitter that Gates missed practice Thursday while dealing with both hip and knee ailments. Keep an eye on his status heading into Sunday.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (vs. BUF): 8 receptions, 111 yards, 1 touchdown—17.1 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (vs. WAS): 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 touchdown—15.0 fantasy points
3. Tyler Eifert (at ARI): 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 touchdown—14.8 fantasy points
4. Travis Kelce (at SD): 5 receptions, 78 yards, 1 touchdown—13.8 fantasy points
5. Antonio Gates (vs. KC): 7 receptions, 77 yards, 1 touchdown—13.7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

As noted above, don’t be surprised if Kelce finds the end zone this week. He’ll be playing against the San Diego Chargers, who have given up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the past three weeks.

Detroit Lions tight end Eric Ebron could also be in for a big game in Week 11. He’s squaring off against the Oakland Raiders, who have been terrible at defending tight ends all season long. In fact, a tight end has scored a touchdown against the Raiders in all but one game this season. That’s why they have given up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2015, per ESPN.com.

Antonio Gates is in the top five despite the fact he’s playing against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have given up the second-fewest fantasy point per game to opposing tight ends so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Gates, however, will be one of the best tight ends the Chiefs have faced all season. And strong tight ends have had some success against the Chiefs this year; Tyler Eifert averaged 23 yards per catch in Week 4 against them.

What the Metrics Say

Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys has been a reliable tight end all season. He has yet to drop a pass on 60 targets, per Pro Football Focus. All other tight ends with at least 30 targets have at least one drop.

Another reason to like Gates this week despite his tough matchup on paper is the fact that he’s been acting more like a slot wide receiver this season than a tight end. About 75 percent of his routes have come from the slot this year. And the Chiefs, for all of their success against tight ends, have been terrible at defending wide receivers. They have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts in 2015, per ESPN.com.

Look out for Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. He has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he’s coming off a game in which he saw season highs in targets (10), receptions (seven) and yards (68). He has also run 296 routes, sixth-most among all tight ends. That gives him ample opportunity to make some plays.

Kickers: Fire Up the Kickers in the Baltimore vs. St. Louis Game

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Justin Tucker

You should fire up both kickers in the Baltimore Ravens (Justin Tucker) vs. St. Louis Rams (Greg Zuerlein) game. That one could lead to a ton of kicker points—both in terms of real football and in terms of fantasy football. 

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. BUF): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (vs. SF): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
3. Justin Tucker (vs. SF): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
4. Dan Bailey (at MIA): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Matt Bryant (vs. IND): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

As noted above, feel free to start both kickers in the Rams-Ravens game. The Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to opposing kickers so far this season, per ESPN.com, while the Rams have given up the sixth-most.

Adam Vinatieri of the Indianapolis Colts is not a strong play at kicker this week. He's playing against the Atlanta Falcons, who have given up only 10 total field goals this season—about one per game. Additionally, Andrew Luck will not lead the offense in Week 11, so the Colts could have trouble moving the ball down the field.

Kansas City Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos is set for another big game in Week 11. He will be playing against the San Diego Chargers, who gave up an average of 14 points per game to opposing kickers from Weeks 6-8. (The Chargers were able to shut down Chicago Bears kicker Robbie Gould in Week 9, but that’s because Gould missed two field-goal attempts.)

Defense and Special Teams: Stream the Eagles D/ST This Week

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

If you’re looking for a sneaky stream D/ST heading into Week 11, look no further than the Philadelphia Eagles, who will square off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston.

The Seattle Seahawks are easily the No. 1 D/ST unit this week with their matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs so far this season, per ESPN.com.

The Projections 

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. SF): 14 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
2. Carolina Panthers (vs. WAS): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
3. Denver Broncos (at CHI): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 5 sacks
4. New York Jets (at HOU): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
5. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. TB): 14 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

Over the past two weeks, opposing D/ST units have scored a combined 20 points when playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For their part, the Eagles have scored the fifth-most points among all D/STs all season long, per ESPN.com. It’s a great matchup for the Philadelphia D/ST.

The Oakland Raiders D/ST is a decent streaming option this week as well. Oakland will be playing against the Detroit Lions, who have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs so far this season, per ESPN.com. Additionally, Matthew Stafford, Detroit's quarterback, is tied for second among all signal-callers with 12 interceptions this season.

The Arizona Cardinals D/ST is an interesting spot this week. It has the fourth-most fantasy points among all units so far this season, but the team it is playing against this week—Cincinnati—is among the 10 worst teams a D/ST can face in 2015, per ESPN.com. The Cardinals are still worth starting, but they aren’t a no-brainer this week.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.