Week 10 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

The midpoint of the NFL season has seen plenty of separation between the top teams and the rest, and the spreads in Week 10 have reflected this gap.

According to Odds Shark, only five of the 14 games opened with a spread of three points or less, while four contests started with at least a touchdown gap. This means picking winners might not be nearly as difficult as guessing which side covers the spread this weekend.

With potential blowouts and tough calls all over, here is a breakdown of Week 10 picks both straight up and against the spread.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick
Buffalo Bills	20-17	New York Jets	BUF +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	24-27	Baltimore Ravens	JAX +5.5
New Orleans Saints	27-28	Washington Redskins	WAS +1
Chicago Bears	10-21	St. Louis Rams	STL -7
Miami Dolphins	20-23	Philadelphia Eagles	MIA +6.5
Carolina Panthers	24-13	Tennessee Titans	CAR -5.5
Detroit Lions	17-35	Green Bay Packers	GB -11.5
Cleveland Browns	23-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	CLE +4.5
Dallas Cowboys	14-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -1.5
Minnesota Vikings	24-31	Oakland Raiders	OAK -3
New England Patriots	34-28	New York Giants	NYG +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs	16-27	Denver Broncos	DEN -6
Arizona Cardinals	20-24	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -3
Houston Texans	17-30	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -10.5

Note: All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Picks

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at New York Jets

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

At the start of the season, the New York Jets had the best defense in football. The defensive line barely gave up an inch while the veteran playmakers in the secondary shut down opposing passing attacks.

Things have not been quite the same lately, per NFL Network:

The Jets have lost two of their last three games while allowing an average of 29 points—not quite the terrifying unit it was a month ago. Injuries have been a big part of these problems, and they are only getting worse, per Bleacher Report's Erik Frenz:

Conversely, the Buffalo Bills are getting healthier with both Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins looking as good as ever in Week 9. Even LeSean McCoy is probable despite a shoulder injury, according to Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk.

Buffalo now has playmakers who can beat the Jets' shorthanded defense. Adding in their own solid defense against an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills should have the advantage in a short week leading up to the Thursday night game.

While the focus might be on Rex Ryan and his return to New York, the team with the superior players will win this one, and that will be the Bills.

St. Louis Rams (-7) vs. Chicago Bears

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

There were positive developments in the Chicago Bears' win over the San Diego Chargers Monday, including the emergence of rookie running back Jeremy Langford. Alshon Jeffery also looked as good as ever while Jay Cutler came through when needed.

At the same time, inefficiency in and near the red zone limited the team offensively and turned what could have been an easy win over a bad team into an unneeded scare.

This won't help against the St. Louis Rams, which even with injuries have played excellent defense at home this season. In four games, the unit is allowing an average of just 13.8 points, including two non-offensive touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1.

Cutler won't get away with multiple turnovers against this team like he did last week.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams have struggled with consistency but have two dangerous playmakers. Head coach Jeff Fisher explained the challenge for opposing defenses before his last game:

Todd Gurley is averaging 131 rushing yards in his five starts, and he now faces a defense that ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per carry. This will be too much for the Bears to handle as they begin a new losing streak.

Green Bay Packers (-11.5) vs. Detroit Lions

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

In a week full of high lines, this is the largest one despite the Green Bay Packers losing their past two games. The reality is this might even be too low in this division rivalry game.

The Packers have struggled lately, but the high level of competition has a lot to do with that, as Aaron Rodgers explained:

Green Bay couldn't do much offensively against the Denver Broncos, ranked No. 1 in the league in points allowed per game. The team fared better but still was limited against the Carolina Panthers, ranked No. 11 in the same category. Against the Detroit Lions—ranked dead last in points allowed per game—the recent problems should fade away.

With the more efficient James Starks now the starter, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and a full complement of weapons around him, Rodgers should be able to get this offense back on track against the struggling Lions.

Detroit might fare better on the other side of the ball after two weeks of learning new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's system, but it won't be enough to hang with an angry Packers team looking to prove it is still a contender.

Green Bay will want to send a message with this game, and almost no line will be too high. 

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for more year-round sports analysis.