Week 9 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

When making NFL picks, it is often just as easy to target bad teams as it is to target good ones. Going after squads that you know will struggle can lead to wins regardless of the opponent.

You can have similar success with over/under predictions, choosing the offensive or defensive units that have not lived up to expectations. Regardless of the outcome of the games, the total score will usually reflect the abilities of these units.

This strategy can help you out in Week 9. Here are predictions for each contest and a breakdown of the top over/under picks of the weekend:

Away	Score	Home	ATS Pick	O/U
Miami Dolphins	23-27	Buffalo Bills	BUF (-3)	Over (44)
Washington Redskins	17-38	New England Patriots	NE (-14)	Over (52)
Jacksonville Jaguars	14-20	New York Jets	JAX (+7.5)	Under (42.5)
Tennessee Titans	16-27	New Orleans Saints	NO (-8)	Under (48)
Oakland Raiders	21-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	OAK (+4.5)	Under (48)
St. Louis Rams	20-17	Minnesota Vikings	STL (+2)	Under (40)
Green Bay Packers	27-28	Carolina Panthers	CAR (+2.5)	Over (46)
New York Giants	30-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB (+2.5)	Over (49.5)
Atlanta Falcons	24-6	San Francisco 49ers	ATL (-7)	Under (44)
Denver Broncos	21-13	Indianapolis Colts	DEN (-5)	Under (45)
Philadelphia Eagles	23-17	Dallas Cowboys	PHI (-3)	Under (44.5)
Chicago Bears	31-28	San Diego Chargers	CHI (+4)	Over (49)

Top Over/Under Picks

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (Under 44)

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons have a lot of talent offensively with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, although the unit has been struggling lately. The team has lost two of its last three games while averaging just 17 points per contest after a 5-0 start.

With that said, one long touchdown by Jones could be enough to seal the game against the San Francisco 49ers offense.

San Francisco enters the week ranking dead last in the NFL with 13.6 points per game, a mark that is unlikely to improve with the switch at quarterback to Blaine Gabbert. Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman quoted Tim Hasselbeck's harsh criticism of the former first-round pick:

To make matters worse, the former Jacksonville Jaguars starter will be without some key playmakers, per the Bay Area News Group's Cam Inman:

According to the team's injury report, Carlos Hyde is out, and Anquan Boldin is unlikely to play. The team traded Vernon Davis to the Denver Broncos, and the entire offensive line—with the exception of Joe Staley—has struggled immensely. Torrey Smith is the only healthy offensive playmaker on the roster, and even he hasn't been reliable.

The Falcons defense—which has played well without being exceptional—should look like the 1985 Chicago Bears on Sunday.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 49.5)

Butch Dill/Associated Press

ESPN's Linda Cohn summed up the New York Giants' loss to the New Orleans Saints with this tweet:

Drew Brees embarrassed the Giants, who allowed seven touchdowns and over 500 yards through the air. While the return of Jason Pierre-Paul could help, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo tempered expectations when asked about the defensive end's potential impact, per Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News:

"

Look, defensive football is a team game, it’s 11 guys, it’s not one guy. I wouldn’t put that on a guy. ... To think he’s just going to go out there and be the JPP that everybody hopes and wants, I don’t know if that’s fair. But we’ll see. ... He’s got a long way to go. It’s hard to take that much time off and be at the level that you think he can play.

"

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has improved his level of play lately, with zero interceptions over his last three games after throwing four in the previous contest. His 93.0 quarterback rating in the team's upset win over the Falcons last week was his best of the year, per ESPN.com.

Although he isn't at Brees' level, Winston should be able to spread the ball around to his playmakers and help light up the scoreboard.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants' No. 5-ranked scoring offense should have plenty of success against the Bucs' fifth-worst scoring defense. It might not allow Eli Manning and Co. to pull out a win, but it should create an exciting shootout.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (Under 45)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

There will be a lot of talk about Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis after he spent so many years with the Colts. This will hype up the game, but the story should be the Broncos defense and its ability to shut down anyone it faces.

Not only does Denver lead the NFL, allowing only 16 points per game, but the unit was also key in arguably the most impressive performance of the 2015 NFL season. The Broncos shut down the Green Bay Packers in a 29-10 win, holding Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards on the day. The Packers offense managed to record only 140 total yards from scrimmage.

Brian Baldinger of NFL Network had high praise for the Broncos defense:

With dynamic veterans and youngsters at every spot on the field, this unit is almost impossible to penetrate.

The Colts will give it a shot Sunday, but they will do it with a brand-new offensive coordinator after firing Pep Hamilton earlier in the week. Considering that quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown at least two interceptions in five of his six games and holds a 1-5 record as the starter this year, new coordinator Rob Chudzinski has a difficult task ahead of him.

Even if the newfound run game and the addition of Davis help improve the Broncos offense, the strong defense will keep the scoring in this matchup to a minimum.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.

All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.