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NFL Odds Week 8: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

Justis MosquedaNov 1, 2015

I hope you all had fun on Halloween. Ultimately, the goal this Sunday is to gather even more treats and avoid tricks at all cost.

As always, we have spread picks for all 13 games on this week's slate lined up for you. We'll also cover the spread movement, documenting where lines opened and how they currently stand. I'll dip my toes in on over-unders as well, giving my top three picks of the week.

Weather and injuries play as much into the game as home-field advantage and coaching, so we'll share all of the impactful information in that field, too. Together, we'll try to make some money out of this weekend while we sit on the couch and steal pieces of our kids' candy.

Spread Picks

1 of 5

The line: Detroit vs. Kansas City (-4)

The pick: Detroit (+4)

The line: San Francisco @ St. Louis (-8.5)

The pick: San Francisco (+8.5)

The line: Minnesota @ Chicago (-1)

The pick: Minnesota (+1)

The line: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (PK)

The pick: Pittsburgh (PK)

The line: San Diego @ Baltimore (-3)

The pick: San Diego (+3)

The line: Houston @ Tennessee (-4.5)

The pick: Houston (+4.5)

The line: New York Giants @ New Orleans (-3.5)

The pick: New York Giants (+3.5)

The line: Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-7.5)

The pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5)

The line: Arizona @ Cleveland (+4.5)

The pick: Arizona (-4.5)

The line: New York Jets @ Oakland (+2.5)

The pick: New York Jets (-2.5)

The line: Seattle @ Dallas (+6)

The pick: Dallas (+6)

The line: Green Bay @ Denver (+2.5)

The pick: Green Bay (-2.5)

The line: Indianapolis @ Carolina (-5.5)

The pick: Carolina (-5.5)

As always, you can find my spread picks on Thursdays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

Line Movement

2 of 5

Detroit vs. Kansas City

Opened: Kansas City (-3)

Current: Kansas City (-3.5)

San Francisco @ St. Louis

Opened: St. Louis (-7.5)

Current: St. Louis (-8.5)

Minnesota @ Chicago

Opened: Chicago (+2.5)

Current: Chicago (+1)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Opened: Pittsburgh (+2.5)

Current: Pittsburgh (PK)

San Diego @ Baltimore

Opened: Baltimore (-3)

Current: Baltimore (-3.5)

Houston @ Tennessee

Opened: Houston (-4.5)

Current: Houston (-4.5)

New York Giants @ New Orleans

Opened: New Orleans (-3)

Current: New Orleans (-3)

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Opened: Atlanta (-7)

Current: Atlanta (-7)

Arizona @ Cleveland

Opened: Cleveland (+4.5)

Current: Cleveland (+6)

New York Jets @ Oakland

Opened: Oakland (+2.5)

Current: Oakland (+3)

Seattle @ Dallas

Opened: Dallas (+6)

Current: Dallas (+5)

Green Bay @ Denver

Opened: Denver (+3)

Current: Denver (+3)

Indianapolis @ Carolina

Opened: Carolina (-5.5)

Current: Carolina (-7)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

3 of 5

Green Bay @ Denver: Under 45.5

I just don't think Peyton Manning is going to be able to deliver the ball deep against such a fast front seven. Unless you think the Green Bay Packers are going to post more than 35 points on a loaded Denver Broncos defense, I like the chances of the under here. The Broncos are going to look weird in the light after playing softballs all year and sneaking by.

San Francisco @ St. Louis: Over 39.5

Whenever I see lines in the 30s, I'm tempted to take them automatically. San Francisco can score on the ground and might post some garbage-time points at the end of the game. In the same regard, rookie running back Todd Gurley has nearly double-digit yards per carry in the fourth quarter. You're going to stress this one out early, but I'm willing to bet they end up reaching the over when the final whistle blows.

Indianapolis @ Carolina: Under 47

I don't like where the Indianapolis Colts are right now. They are turning over the ball on offense and allowing wide-open receivers defensively in busted coverage. Still, Carolina's offense isn't particularly efficient, either, and tends to keep teams in the game, only winning by one score.

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Weather Reports

4 of 5

Open Stadium

Detroit vs. Kansas City (London)

High: 59 degrees

Low: 47 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: E 4 mph

Minnesota @ Chicago

High: 65 degrees

Low: 50 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: WSW 11 mph

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

High: 65 degrees

Low: 45 degrees

Description: Mostly cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: SW 12 mph

San Diego @ Baltimore

High: 70 degrees

Low: 54 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: SW 9 mph

Houston @ Tennessee

High: 68 degrees

Low: 58 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: NE 5 mph

Arizona @ Cleveland

High: 62 degrees

Low: 46 degrees

Description: Morning clouds/afternoon sun

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: WSW 16 mph

New York Jets @ Oakland

High: 70 degrees

Low: 56 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: W 10 mph

Green Bay @ Denver

High: 72 degrees

Low: 40 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 9 mph

Indianapolis @ Carolina

High: 65 degrees

Low: 54 degrees

Description: Rain

Precipitation: 100 percent

Wind: NE 8 mph

Retractable Stadium

Seattle @ Dallas

High: 69 degrees

Low: 54 degrees

Description: Scattered thunderstorms

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: NNW 9 mph

Dome Stadium

San Francisco @ St. Louis

New York Giants @ New Orleans

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Injury Reports

5 of 5

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas

Though the team is still without quarterback Tony Romo, the Dallas Cowboys will finally have Dez Bryant back this week, according to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport. He is a top-five receiver in the league, and his presence alone will open up the offense on the ground and through the air. Don't expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, though.

Vontaze Burfict, LB, Cincinnati

Vontaze Burfict went through microfracture surgery, which led to his inclusion on the PUP list to start the season. He's finally coming off, which should help the Cincinnati Bengals, whose defensive weakness is the linebacker unit. If he plays, this might be the most complete the Bengals defense has been all year.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee

Marcus Mariota, who missed last week and the end of the Miami Dolphins game with an MCL issue, will again miss another, this time against Houston Texans. Zach Mettenberger will make his second start of 2015, with his first resulting in a 10-7 loss.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

It was announced that Ben Roethlisberger will play this week against the Cincinnati Bengals, which is an absolute game-changer for the Steelers. Michael Vick at least gave the team a dual-threat element when Big Ben went down. When Vick got injured, though, third-string Landry Jones just held the team back in every way. With Roethlisberger back on the field, the Steelers are a top-five team in the league.

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