NFL Odds Week 7: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and over-Under Analysis

In the game of football, timing is crucial. A timely turnover or score can swing momentum and turn a deficit into a lead. The same can be said about point spreads.

For example, if a line starts with Team X favored by 2.5 points and it eventually rises to 3.5 points, going through the key number of three, and Team X wins by a field goal, the timing of when you placed that bet is the difference between a win, a loss and a push. Surprisingly, this happens more than the public expects.

With that in mind, we'll go over our locked-in spread picks, the week's spread movement, some key over-under picks, weather reports and injury reports, all of which impact these lines. Knowledge is power, and our goal is to make you more powerful heading into Sunday's slate. 

Spread Picks

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The line: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (+4.5) (London)

The pick: Buffalo (-4.5)

The line: Atlanta @ Tennessee (+6.5)

The pick: Atlanta (-6.5)

The line: Houston @ Miami (-4.5)

The pick: Miami (-4.5)

The line: Cleveland @ St. Louis (-6.5)

The pick: Cleveland (+6.5)

The line: New York Jets @ New England (-8)

The pick: New York Jets (+8)

The line: New Orleans @ Indianapolis (-5)

The pick: New Orleans (+5)

The line: Tampa Bay @ Washington (-3.5)

The pick: Washington (-3.5)

The line: Minnesota @ Detroit (+3)

The pick: Minnesota (-3)

The line: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-3)

The pick: Pittsburgh (+3)

The line: Oakland @ San Diego (-4)

The pick: Oakland (+4)

The line: Dallas @ New York Giants (-3.5)

The pick: Dallas (+3.5)

The line: Philadelphia @ Carolina (-3)

The pick: Carolina (-3)

The line: Baltimore @ Arizona (-9)

The pick: Arizona (-9)

As always, you can find my spread picks on Thursdays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

Line Movement

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville

Opened: Jacksonville (+3.5)

Current: Jacksonville (+4.5)

Atlanta @ Tennessee

Opened: Tennessee (+3)

Current: Tennessee (+6.5)

Houston @ Miami

Opened: Miami (-3.5)

Current: Miami (-4.5)

Cleveland @ St. Louis

Opened: St. Louis (-4.5)

Current: St. Louis (-6.5)

New Orleans @ Indianapolis

Opened: Indianapolis (-4)

Current: Indianapolis (-5)

Minnesota @ Detroit

Opened: Detroit (+2.5)

Current: Detroit (+3)

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Opened: Washington (-4)

Current: Washington (-3.5)

New York Jets @ New England

Opened: New England (-9.5)

Current: New England (-8)

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

Opened: Kansas City (+2)

Current: Kansas City (-3)

Oakland @ San Diego

Opened: San Diego (-4)

Current: San Diego (-4)

Dallas @ New York Giants

Opened: New York Giants (-5)

Current: New York Giants (-3.5)

Philadelphia @ Carolina

Opened: Carolina (-3)

Current: Carolina (-3)

Baltimore @ Arizona

Opened: Arizona (-7)

Current: Arizona (-9)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

New York Jets @ New England: Under 48

The New York Jets might have the best defense in the AFC behind the Denver Broncos. I understand that the New England Patriots have put up 28 or more points every week in 2015, but not one defense they've faced is what I would call above average. I don't necessarily trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to light the sky on fire, either.

Cleveland @ St. Louis: Under 42

On one side of the ball, we have the St. Louis defensive line, the best in football. On the other side of the ball is an offense that has scored eight offensive touchdowns in five games. Seven have come from Rams quarterback Nick Foles, who has also turned the ball over six times, and one came from a Tavon Austin gimmick run. And Todd Gurley is sure getting a lot of hype for a player who still hasn't scored in the NFL.

Baltimore @ Arizona: Over 49

Arizona's defense can score points when pressure is put on the offense in passing situations. The Baltimore Ravens don't have respectable defensive backs. The Cardinals love stomping on the throats of their opponents. Arizona might just get the over by themselves.

Weather Reports

Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

Open stadium

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (London)

High: 54 degrees

Low: 44 degrees

Description: Mostly sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SSE 5 mph

Atlanta @ Tennessee

High: 63 degrees

Low: 54 degrees

Description: Rain

Precipitation: 90 percent

Wind: NE 8 mph

Houston @ Miami

High: 84 degrees

Low: 74 degrees

Description: PM showers

Precipitation: 40 percent

Wind: E 14 mph

Tampa Bay @ Washington

High: 69 degrees

Low: 43 degrees

Description: AM showers

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: WNW 11 mph

New York Jets @ New England

High: 61 degrees

Low: 35 degrees

Description: Showers

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: WSW 12 mph

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

High: 66 degrees

Low: 42 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: ENE 7 mph

Oakland @ San Diego

High: 79 degrees

Low: 63 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 6 mph

Dallas @ New York Giants

High: 66 degrees

Low: 40 degrees

Description: AM showers

Precipitation: 30 percent

Wind: W 13 mph

Philadelphia @ Carolina

High: 77 degrees

Low: 57 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: W 6 mph

Retractable stadium

Baltimore @ Arizona

High: 88 degrees

Low: 64 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: E 13 mph

New Orleans @ Indianapolis

High: 65 degrees

Low: 42 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: NNE 9 mph

Dome stadium

Cleveland @ St. Louis

Minnesota @ Detroit

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson is now listed as questionable due to an illness. While that may appear to be a huge factor on paper, he hasn't had a great comeback season in 2015. His standout game against the Denver Broncos this really was one breakaway run that skewed his game-long stats.

Last week, Allen Bailey blew him up near the goal line in the hardest hit I've ever seen Peterson take in his career. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise for Minnesota?

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant has been ruled out by the team, which is a huge factor in this week's game against the New York Giants. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of a bye week, but they are also starting their third quarterback this season in Matt Cassel, as Brandon Weeden was replaced after dinking and dunking as Tony Romo's replacement.

I still feel good about Dallas covering, backing off the offensive line and defense, but their chances to win straight up against the Giants have dropped in my mind.

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills

E.J. Manuel isn't the worst option at quarterback in today's NFL. After all, the Bills were confident enough in his ability to trade Cassel midseason this year. Manuel will make an international start in London as Tyrod Taylor will miss the game along with their star receiver Sammy Watkins. Still, the Jaguars haven't been able to stop a cold this season defensively.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota will miss this week's game against the Atlanta Falcons due to an MCL issue. Mariota had a similar injury in college after taking a hit similar to Olivier Vernon's low shot. Zach Mettenberger will play behind that battered Titans offensive line this week. Ken Whisenhunt's seat should be getting pretty warm at this point.