Jets vs. Patriots: Full New England Game Preview

After playing one of their most emotionally exhausting games of the season, the New England Patriots will face a similarly difficult challenge in Week 7 against the unexpectedly resurgent New York Jets. If last week was all about vengeance, this week will place the Patriots in the role of the hunted as the Jets fly into Foxborough with just as much hunger as the Pats had against the Indianapolis Colts.

At 4-1, Gang Green has experienced a sudden revival under first-year head coach Todd Bowles. New York hasn't carried itself with the same irreverence it did under Rex Ryan, but that no-nonsense approach has paid huge dividends for a veteran squad that appears to possess surprisingly few roster holes.

Indeed, the Jets probably possess the league's most improved secondary behind old friend Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine, all of whom arrived this offseason via free agency. Ryan Fitzpatrick has also been under control in his return to Chan Gailey's spread system, evoking memories of his best days in Buffalo.

A game that looked like a Patriots walkover headed into the season has consequently become a battle for first place in the AFC East. For a look at what the Patriots need to do to maintain control of the division, read on for analysis of all the most important players and matchups for this game.

Week 6 Results and Recap

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In a game that few expected to be in doubt, the Patriots had a rather difficult time putting away the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday night. New England emerged with a 34-27 win and largely controlled the game throughout the second half, but the seven-point win probably represented the Pats' most erratic performance of the season.

For the second consecutive week, the offense saw an unexpected wrinkle from the opposing defense, as the Colts frequently dropped their rush linebackers into coverage in an effort to eliminate the quick in-breaking routes that are staples of the New England playbook. Tom Brady suffered his share of problems in the first half, including his first interception of the season, which Mike Adams returned for a touchdown in the second quarter.

Ultimately, though, the game turned in the second half when the defense clamped down and held the Colts scoreless until the final minute of the fourth quarter. Aided by the most spectacular special teams gaffe of the season, the Patriots held a 13-point lead for most of the fourth quarter, keeping Indy's relatively benign comeback attempt at bay.

It wasn't the whitewashing many Patriots fans hoped for, but a highly efficient win over a conference rival is hardly anything to sneeze at. New England won despite ostensibly operating on cruise control for much of the night—a frightening thought for both the Colts and the rest of the Patriots' AFC competition.

News and Notes

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Brady's Pocket Movement vs. Indy Impressive

Tom Brady has never been known as a particularly nimble quarterback, but despite his lack of straight-line speed or quickness, the plodding passer has always possessed a preternatural feel for pressure in the pocket. In reviewing New England's Week 6 win over the Colts, the MMQB's Andy Benoit notes that Brady's ability to remain patient and climb the pocket against Indy's unusual coverages played a huge role in the deciding the outcome:

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It’s nearly impossible to defend a straight drop-back passer for a prolonged length of time. That’s what Indy’s defense was compelled to do. Some of this was a natural consequence of their coverage-first game plan. But most of it was a product of Brady’s uncanny ability to extend plays within the pocket. On several occasions...Brady made the play by climbing up in the pocket.

Though he hasn’t had to very often, Brady this season has been sensational at extending plays like this. That’s been the case throughout his career, really. You could make a legitimate argument that Brady’s feet have done more for his eventual Hall of Fame candidacy than has his right arm.

"

We've seen both the Colts and Dallas Cowboys stray from their typical front-seven philosophies over the past two weeks in an effort to slow the Patriots' rhythm-based passing game. In many ways, it illustrates the edge the Patriots hold against most opponents even before they take the field, as most teams don't possess the personnel to dictate the action to New England or the coaching staff to match wits with the schematic advantages Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels routinely provide.

On paper, the Jets look like an exception to that role, as they have the long, physical corners to disrupt the timing of New England's receivers off the line, as well as the defensive line talent to generate pressure without necessarily blitzing. New York won't need smoke and mirrors to defend New England's offense, so the margin for error on Sunday appears smaller than in any game the Pats have played thus far.

Cornerback Possibilities

Since the preseason, cornerback has been the thinnest spot on New England's roster. With Tarell Brown down for the year, the Pats are down to just four cornerbacks—starters Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, undrafted rookie Justin Coleman and the recently claimed Rashaan Melvin. In suggesting potential roster moves to address the position's depth, ESPN.com's Mike Reiss opined that the Pats aren't likely to bring back released vets Bradley Fletcher or Robert McClain but rather seek a perimeter corner via trade:

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But their actions are telling; at this point, as they feel undrafted rookie Justin Coleman and recently claimed Rashaan Melvin are better options. I think Coleman has outplayed Fletcher, and with McClain, he’s really more of a slot option and they are OK in that area. What they really need, from this viewpoint, is more of an outside corner. I wrote about some trade possibilities on Saturday, as that might be the way to go.

"

Fletcher and McClain have remained unsigned since their releases from Foxborough, so it's not as though either represents a surefire commodity who could generate much interest from the rest of the league. In fairness, McClain has reportedly visited or worked out for eight teams since being released before the start of the season, according to ESPN's Field Yates, so he could potentially sign somewhere relatively soon.

Nevertheless, the Pats are likely to find a more tenable option on the trade market, given Belichick's success in finagling deals in recent seasons. Reiss mentions Kansas City's Marcus Cooper as a possibility in the linked article in his response, with Tennessee's Jason McCourty representing a pipe-dream ideal. Maybe New England doesn't strike gold, as it did in 2013 with Aqib Talib's midseason acquisition, but expect some type of addition to the cornerback corps imminently.

Pats Work Out Finnegan

Speaking of potential cornerback solutions, the Pats brought a familiar veteran name in for a workout this week, per NFL Media's Rand Getlin:

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The #Pats worked out Cortland Finnegan today, a source said. Despite announcing his retirement in March, he's open to a return to the field.

— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin) October 21, 2015"

The 31-year-old Finnegan announced his retirement at the start of free agency last March but is apparently open to a return based on this workout. The fiery, undersized (5'10") vet peaked during his time in Tennessee but was largely a disaster during his final three seasons in St. Louis and Miami. According to Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks compiled a 102.1 rating when targeting Finnegan last year, which ranked in the bottom third of 108 qualifying cornerbacks.

Finnegan is also a smaller option who would likely play inside, where Logan Ryan has carved out a niche for this season. Although New England is hardly in any position to turn down help at cornerback, Finnegan is likely no more than an emergency option at this point.

Latest Injury News

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Patriots			Colts
Player	Injury	Status	Player	Injury	Status
Marcus Cannon	Toe	DNP	Jaiquawn Jarrett	Knee	DNP
Rufus Johnson	Illness	DNP	Bilal Powell	Ankle	DNP
Shaq Mason	Knee	DNP	Buster Skrine	Concussion	DNP
Jabaal Sheard	Ankle	DNP	Willie Colon	Knee	Limited
Trey Flowers	Knee/Ribs	Limited	Chris Owusu	Knee	Limited
Dont'a Hightower	Ribs	Limited	Marcus Williams	Hamstring	Limited
Josh Kline	Shoulder	Limited	Dion Bailey	Elbow	Full
Dion Lewis	Abdomen	Limited	Quinton Coples	Elbow	Full
Matthew Slater	Knee	Limited	Eric Decker	Knee	Full
			Ryan Fitzpatrick	Elbow	Full
			Damon Harrison	Finger	Full

The injury bug has bitten the Patriots more frequently since the bye week, a trend that shows up on this week's injury report, the longest of the season so far for New England. While there aren't necessarily any long-term concerns on this list, the Pats could well be short-handed as they approach a two-games-in-four-days stretch, with a Thursday night contest against Miami looming in Week 8.

The most immediate area of concern is on the offensive line, where starters Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason have missed practice this week. If Cannon remains down, the Pats will have just two natural tackles on their roster in Sebastian Vollmer and Cameron Fleming. Though that bookend held up well against Indianapolis, another injury might force someone such as Josh Kline into an unfamiliar role outside. Consequently, expect New England to promote Chris Barker or Blaine Clausell from the practice squad before Sunday.   

On the positive front, Matthew Slater has been a surprise participant in practice after suffering an ostensibly serious knee injury at the end of the Colts game. Slater may be out for "some time," according to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, but the likelihood of his eventual return is a big relief for one of the league's best special teams units.

The Jets have their own laundry list of injuries, but apart from a concussion to slot corner Buster Skrine, the top of New York's roster is intact. New England won't be the healthier team for the first time this season—an additional layer of difficulty the Patriots will face in this matchup.

Injury information via Patriots.com.

Key Matchups

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Malcolm Butler vs. Brandon Marshall

Marshall appeared toast after an injury-riddled 2014 in Chicago, but the 31-year-old has experienced a huge resurgence as the top option in New York's offense. He ranks third in receiving yards per game (102.2) and is on pace for 118 receptions, which would tie his career high from 2012. 

Eric Decker is a troubling matchup at 6'3" from the slot, but Marshall is clearly New England's biggest priority in the passing game on Sunday. He sports 53 targets, twice as many as the next closest Jets receiver, as he's one of 12 wide receivers in the NFL who are averaging more than 10 targets per game. 

It shouldn't be impossible for Butler to hold his own against Marshall, as both possess similarly long and lanky body types. Moreover, Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown a tendency to force the ball to his top receiver—though Marshall has caught four touchdowns, he's also been targeted on five of Fitzpatrick's seven interceptions this year, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Marshall will win his fair share of matchups, but if Butler can generate a big play or two, that would represent a win for the Patriots.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Jets Back Seven

Given New York's strength at cornerback, it's difficult to envision the Patriots offense having much success attacking the perimeter with their wide receivers. So while Brady proved he could still thrive when the Colts forced him outside the numbers last week, this week's passing game should largely funnel through Gronkowski, the one problem the Jets still don't have an answer for.

It seems unlikely the Jets would place Darrelle Revis on Gronk; despite his superb man-coverage skills, Revis is probably more valuable against slippery first-down generator Julian Edelman. The Jets typically ask veteran middle linebacker David Harris to assume lots of coverage responsibilities; expect New York to support Davis with bracket coverage from safeties Calvin Pryor and Marcus Gilchrist.

The inability to get Gronk going was one factor in New England's offensive struggles against the Jets last year, as the All-Pro tight end compiled a relatively modest 11 catches for 99 yards in two meetings against New York in 2014. The Pats can't lean on abusing a porous cornerback corps anymore, though, so integrating Gronk on a more consistent down-to-down basis will be crucial to sustaining drives on Sunday.

Patriots Interior O-Line vs. Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams

The Jets' talented secondary shines even brighter playing behind one of the league's deepest defensive lines. With Sheldon Richardson back from suspension, Todd Bowles switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 last week against Washington, featuring Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson on the edge, with Richardson and Damon Harrison on the interior.

It's New York's sub-package that's truly terrifying, as Williams shifts inside next to Richardson on passing downs. According to Pro Football Focus, the sixth overall pick Williams has paid immediate dividends with 23 quarterback pressures, second-most on the team behind Wilkerson. Next to the Pro Bowler Richardson, the Jets boast one of the league's better interior pass-rushing duos.

This duo is clearly the stiffest test New England's callow interior offensive line has faced so far. Like his predecessor Ryan, Bowles likes to implement byzantine blitzes into his defenses, often with the specific intent of generating interior pressure. The Jets have the scheme to stymie the Patriots offense, and it's largely up to the young interior to perform to ensure that the offense doesn't get stuck in neutral.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Special Teams

If there's one area where the Patriots have a massive advantage, it's on special teams. New York has been abysmal in the third phase this season, ranking 31st in special teams DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Jets have been particularly awful at covering punts; Darren Sproles returned one for a touchdown against New York in Week 3, while Jarvis Landry shredded the Jets' coverage in London.

New England's special teams have been typically stellar, ranking third in DVOA. In fact, the Patriots haven't finished outside of the top 10 in FO's special teams DVOA rankings since 2009. Much of that stems from Stephen Gostkowski's excellence in the kicking game, though, and so far, the Pats' punt return has been largely average.

Sunday would be a nice time for Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman to bust a long return. In a game where yards might be at a premium, the Pats could use the field-position advantage to tilt the field in their favor against New York's sturdy defense. Fans don't typically think about special teams in evaluating matchups, but given how two recent Patriots-Jets games have ended, the third phase should remain firmly on the radar here.

Jets X-Factor of the Week: Chris Ivory

Ivory isn't really an X-factor in the true sense, as he's integral to the Jets offense. But it would be an injustice to go the entire article without mentioning him, so one of the league's more underrated running backs gets his space here.

For all the love Devonta Freeman gets from fantasy football owners, Ivory might be the hottest running back outside of Atlanta at the moment. Ivory's 460 rushing yards rank behind only Freeman and Matt Forte this season, and over the past two games, not even the Falcons' incandescent star has run for more yards than the bruising Jets running back:

"

Chris Ivory's 312 rushing yards in his past two games are the most by any running back over the same span. http://t.co/u6aCdG9mFw

— Erik Frenz (@ErikFrenz) October 19, 2015"

The Pats are familiar with Ivory, who bulldozed his way to 160 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per rush in two games against New England last season. Against a spread offense that seeks to create lighter boxes, the Patriots will have a difficult challenge in slowing down one of the league's most physical runners this Sunday.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 20

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The league's highest-scoring offense might be in for a market correction this week. Even at its nadir, the Jets defense was always able to harass Tom Brady and gum up New England's offensive machine. Now operating with talented personnel and a precocious defensive mind, New York is as well-equipped as any team in the NFL, with the possible exception of the Denver Broncos, to stymie the Patriots offense.

The Pats have been brilliant at working around noticeable personnel deficiencies this season, and their ability to continue that trend against the Jets will be more difficult. New York's best units happen to match up against New England's biggest weaknesses; for all the brilliance Brady and Gronkowski bring, none of that matters if the likes of David Andrews and Shaq Mason can't block Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson.

True, the Jets have played a subpar schedule, as New York has yet to face a team that currently possesses a winning record. Moreover, the Jets have benefited an exceptional amount from turnovers, ranking fourth in turnover margin per game at plus-1.0. New England lost the turnover battle for the first time against Indianapolis, but taking care of the ball against a defense that forces a league-high three takeaways per game will be paramount.

Ultimately, the guess here is that the Patriots somehow find a way at Gillette Stadium to push their record to 6-0. Victory against a bitter rival was a presupposed assumption last weekend, but that should hardly be the case this week.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 20