NFL Picks Week 3: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

The NFL was turned on its head for the most part in its recent slate of games, but with multiple games having been played, Week 3 figures to be a bit easier to gauge for picks.

Due to the parity that exists in pro football, it's hard to guarantee any team is a lock to win. Only eight of 132 experts polled on NFLPickWatch.com had the Jacksonville Jaguars upsetting the Miami Dolphins. Just five had Oakland defeating Baltimore in Week 2.

Eventually the best teams will rise to the top, but the 2015 campaign is young and it's still too early to distinguish most contenders from pretenders. Nevertheless, what follows are expert picks, odds listings from Odds Shark and analysis on which games are the best bets against the spread.

Thursday, Sept. 24	Odds	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Henry Hodgson, NFL Network	Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports	Adam Meyer, Fox Sports	Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
Sunday, Sept. 27	Odds	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Henry Hodgson, NFL Network	Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports	Adam Meyer, Fox Sports	Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
Monday, Sept. 28	Odds	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Henry Hodgson, NFL Network	Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports	Adam Meyer, Fox Sports	Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
Washington at New York Giants	NYG -4	Giants	Giants	Washington	Giants	Giants
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys	ATL -2	Falcons	Cowboys	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -2.5	Ravens	Bengals	Bengals	Ravens	Ravens
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	Panthers	Panthers	NO PICK	Panthers	Panthers
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns	CLE -3.5	Raiders	Browns	Raiders	Browns	Raiders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans	HOU -6.5	Buccaneers	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans	IND -3	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots	NE -13.5	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets	NYJ -2.5	Jets	Jets	Jets	Eagles	Jets
San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings	MIN -2.5	Chargers	Vikings	Chargers	Vikings	Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams	PIT -1	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals	ARIZ -6.5	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins	BUF -3	Dolphins	Bills	Bills	Dolphins	Bills
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -14.5	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions	DEN -2.5	Broncos	Lions	NO PICK	Broncos	Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers	GB -7	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers

Best Bets vs. Spread

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2) over Dallas Cowboys

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

Quarterback play looms large in the versus-spread locks of Week 3. The mismatch between Falcons star Matt Ryan and Tony Romo fill-in Brandon Weeden is among the biggest across the league.

One big reason for that is Ryan still has his No. 1 receiver in Julio Jones, who may be the best at his position in all of football. Not only did the Cowboys lose Romo to a fractured left clavicle in Week 2—they're also without their own elite wideout in Dez Bryant.

Although the offensive line is still among the NFL's best, it doesn't matter if America's Team has a signal-caller who has never proven capable of reading the field. Dallas owner Jerry Jones has at least tried to instill confidence in Weeden during a radio interview, per CBSSports.com's John Breech (via CBS Dallas):

"

This quarterback Weeden can drive the ball down field...He's a thing of beauty on throwing a football. His passing motion and his arm, frankly, you won't see a more gifted passer, power, accuracy, the entire aspect of it. If he can basically prepare, be the starting quarterback, come in and execute and keep his head right, then I feel good about Weeden.

"

Credit Jones for having the stones to invest long-term in Romo, who has justified the Cowboys' faith over the past season-plus and was playing at an extremely high level to start 2015. In this instance of QB evaluation, though, Jones can only be high on Weeden's raw physical tools.

The Falcons have a legitimate lockdown corner in Desmond Trufant who figures to cause all sorts of problems for Dallas' new No. 1 receiver in Terrance Williams. D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal Constitution shows how opponents have hardly bothered to challenge Trufant:

Stout as the Cowboys' own defense has been, they have gone up against a sputtering Philadelphia Eagles unit and the wildly unpredictable New York Giants. This is the most reliable, explosive passing game they will have faced—and they don't have Romo to lead the offense.

Yes, Atlanta is on the road, but the team seems revitalized under new coach Dan Quinn. The former Seattle defensive coordinator figures to have some tricks up his sleeve to confuse Weeden and force the Cowboys into multiple turnovers.

Only a two-point spread with such a mismatch at the game's most important position? Take the Falcons, the points and run.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-7) over New Orleans Saints

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Not rocket science once again, courtesy of the QB situation. Saints field general Drew Brees is dealing with a shoulder injury, leaving his status for Sunday's NFC South clash in doubt. ESPN's Ed Werder has details on Brees' status:

The Panthers' top-flight defense has to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing Brees at less than 100 percent with a diminished supporting cast or career backup Luke McCown.

Erin Coscarelli of NFL Network highlights just how dire the situation is for New Orleans if Brees can't go:

Carolina fans have to be loving life to start the year. They have seen their team face Blake Bortles in Week 1 and Ryan Mallett in Week 2. Another favorable matchup is on tap for Week 3 regardless against a Saints team that also struggles to keep opponents off the scoreboard.

Even if Brees is able to play, the Panthers can likely establish the run with Newton and Jonathan Stewart, get off to a hot start at home and force New Orleans to play from behind. The Saints already rely on the pass heavily, so Brees will be in obvious situations where he has to throw the ball.

Per Panthers.com's Max Henson, there's reason to believe stud linebacker Luke Kuechly will also return from a concussion that kept him out for Week 2:

Saints receiver Brandin Cooks has yet to step up as a true No. 1 option, while veteran Marques Colston is off to a slow start thus far. Depleted as Carolina's own receiving corps is, it's clear the Panthers have an edge on defense.

Hard to believe two teams from the NFC South, the worst division in the NFL last year, have a realistic chance to start off this season 3-0.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Kansas City Chiefs

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Kansas City has an excellent pass rush headed by reigning NFL sack champion Justin Houston. Rookie first-round cornerback Marcus Peters already looks the part of a franchise cornerstone in the secondary.

None of this really matters, because Aaron Rodgers is playing at Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football. The extra time the Chiefs have had to prepare after their crushing defeat at the hands of Denver last Thursday won't be enough to stymie Rodgers.

Leave it to the Packers' official Twitter account to explain how lethal Rodgers has been in protecting Green Bay's home turf:

That Dom Capers Packers defense is also getting after it to start the year more than it has in recent memory. If Green Bay keeps opponents off the scoreboard at a league-average rate, this team will run away with the NFC North title and perhaps the No. 1 playoff seed in the conference.

Again, through only two games those types of conclusions can't be jumped to. What is rather certain is Rodgers will light it up at Lambeau again, leaving limited counterpart Alex Smith tasked with playing from behind.

Smith isn't, hasn't been and never will be capable of doing such a thing on a consistent basis, much less opposite Rodgers and Co. It's going to be on Jamaal Charles to buck the odds, gash Green Bay on the ground and try to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands.

After getting gashed by Chicago's Matt Forte for 141 rushing yards in the regular-season opener, though, the Packers limited Seattle star Marshawn Lynch to 2.7 yards per carry in Week 2. The severely contrasting results make it hard to get a beat on Green Bay's ability to stop the run, but Smith's inability to stretch the field in the vertical passing game should allow the Packers to focus on Charles for the most part.

The home-field advantage Green Bay enjoys with Rodgers under center can't be overstated. In the past nine regular-season games at Lambeau, the Packers are 9-0, winning by an average of 18.3 points. Take the seven points for Green Bay to win.