Daily Fantasy Football Week 3: Predicting DraftKings DFS Studs and Duds

Daily fantasy owners can already begin separating the DraftKings DFS studs and duds as Week 3 begins. DraftKings posts the upcoming week’s player values each Sunday evening as the previous week unwinds.

Julian Edelman ($7,000), Jamaal Charles ($7,400) and Russell Wilson ($7,000) project as strong plays, while Alshon Jeffery ($6,900), C.J Anderson ($6,200) and Drew Brees ($7,500) should be ignored for better options at comparable or cheaper prices.

Because daily fantasy wipes the slate clean each week, the strongest lineups eliminate the most risk. Injured and emerging players should be avoided except for spot starts with high upside in tournament play.

The following studs present the best value—especially in cash games—while the duds are the biggest high-end risks heading into Week 3.

Honorable Mention

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Olsen makes for a good tight end option not named Gronkowski.

Stud: Atlanta Falcons D/ST

The Atlanta Falcons ($2,900) have been anything but a stud defense in recent years, but the emergence of a pass rush behind rookie defensive end Vic Beasley is changing perceptions for Dan Quinn’s defense.

Plus, Tony Romo ($6,400) broke his clavicle on Sunday, according to Jason La Canfora on Twitter, meaning Atlanta faces the Dallas Cowboys without its star quarterback or Dez Bryant ($8,300). Brandon Weeden ($5,200) will make life easy on the Falcons D/ST.

Stud: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Greg Olsen ($4,800) makes a good play for owners not willing to fork over $7,400 for Rob Gronkowski.

The New Orleans Saints defense is littered with injuries, and the Panthers offense is practically devoid of better receiving options.

Stud: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Associated Press

Edelman is a key piece of New England's league-leading passing offense.

Edelman ($7,000) is the most targeted player in the league through two games with 31. He’s converted those looks into 22 receptions for 198 yards and two touchdowns, adding two runs for 21 yards.

He and tight end Rob Gronkowski ($7,400) are the principal benefactors of Tom Brady’s ($7,700) passing barrage. Angry Tom leads the league in almost every passing category: attempts (91), completions (63), yards (754), touchdowns (7, tied), interceptions (0, tied) and passer rating (119.9).

In a PPR format like DraftKings, Edelman is a sneaky stud as the volume leader among wide receivers. He currently ranks third in points per game with 27.8 behind only Antonio Brown’s ($8,900) 35.4 PPG and Julio Jones’ ($9,000) 33.8, but costs $2,000 less to add to your roster.

The Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, looking to take advantage of its 20th-ranked passing defense. New England’s passing offense is far superior to the weaponless Carolina Panthers and sluggish Miami Dolphins Gus Bradley’s squad faced in its first two contests.

Edelman should maintain his league lead in targets and catches in Week 3.

Week 3 Projection: Nine receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Dud: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

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Jeffery is a poor daily play even if he returns fully healthy from his hamstring injury.

Jeffery ($6,900) and the Bears already faced a daunting task heading to Seattle to take on cornerback Richard Sherman and the Seahawks, then he suffered a hamstring injury which sidelined him in Week 2.

Hamstring injuries are particularly troubling for wide receivers because of the nature of the position. If Jeffery can go in Week 3, his speed and endurance will not likely be 100 percent.

Jay Cutler ($5,500) left the game against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday with an injured hamstring as well, according to Rotoworld. He was replaced by Jimmy Clausen ($5,000). Even if Jeffery returns completely healthy, entering one of the NFL’s most hostile environments against an opportunistic defense with a backup quarterback is not a recipe for success.

Jeffery can be a great daily fantasy weapon, but it won’t be in Week 3.

Week 3 Projection: Four receptions for 55 yards.

Stud: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Charles is already in All-Pro form heading into Week 3.

Charles ($7,400) looked rejuvenated through 2015’s first two weeks after nagging injuries dampened his 2014 campaign. He’s averaging 23.5 points per game in DraftKings’ PPR scoring format.

Charles ranks seventh in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating, dodging tacklers and manufacturing yards.

The All-Pro will seek continued success against a Green Bay Packers defense which allowed Matt Forte ($7,300) 141 rushing yards and a touchdown plus five receptions for 25 yards in Week 1. The Packers held Marshawn Lynch ($7,400) in check Sunday night—41 rushing yards, plus three receptions for 21—but Lynch’s bruising running style is the antithesis of Charles’ shiftiness.

Forte and Charles are far more comparable running backs, which projects well for Charles owners.

Charles will also be coming off an extended rest, hungry to redeem himself after fumbling away a shot at overtime on Thursday night.

Week 3 Projection: 130 rushing yards and one touchdown, plus five receptions for 35 yards.

Dud: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Anderson and the Broncos running game failed to find a rhythm through two games.

The Broncos running game in 2015 is hardly a shadow of the one which averaged 4.0 yards per attempt in 2014, rendering Anderson ($6,200) untouchable until Gary Kubiak’s new offense gets sorted out.

Not only has Anderson fallen dramatically behind his 4.7 YPA in 2014 at just 2.3 so far this season, but Ronnie Hillman ($5,300) is nearly splitting carries, and rushing more effectively as well. Hillman ran 21 times to Anderson’s 24 through two weeks, posting a 3.6 YPA.

Neither have separated themselves from a fantasy perspective, but Hillman’s participation alone devalues Anderson at this early stage of the season.

The Detroit Lions might appear to be an attractive matchup given its fourth-worst 147.0-rushing-yards-allowed-per-game average, according to NFL.com. But 199 of those came against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, including 134 yards for Adrian Peterson ($7,500).

The San Diego Chargers offense is more representative of Denver’s players and scheme, which Detroit held to just 69 rushing yards in Week 1.

Avoid Anderson in daily formats until the Broncos offensive philosophy is better defined.

Week 3 Projection: 50 yards rushing and three receptions for 25 yards.

Stud: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Wilson will end Seattle's two-game losing streak with a complete performance in Week 3.

Wilson ($7,000) enters Week 3 tied for the eighth-most expensive quarterback alongside Eli Manning. Wilson is a full $1,000 cheaper than the most expensive quarterback in Week 3—Aaron Rodgers ($8,000).

It’s a great discount for a player who should finish among the top QBs.

Wilson and the Seahawks host the Chicago Bears, bringing to town the league’s most generous scoring defense. The Bears already surrendered 10 touchdowns in the first two games—seven passing, two rushing and one returning, according to NFL.com.

Keep in mind that Seattle desperately needs a win after starting its quest for Super Bowl redemption 0-2. CenturyLink Field will be absolutely electrified for the Seahawks 2015 home opener, yet another factor favoring Wilson and the offense.

Look for Wilson to improve upon the 19.57 points per game posted in the first two weeks as he runs the offense roughshod over the Bears.

Week 3 Projection: 275 passing yards and two touchdowns, plus 75 rushing yards and one touchdown.

Dud: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

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Brees was already struggling before he injured his arm early against the Buccaneers.

Brees ($7,500) sputtered out of the gates, matching two touchdowns with two interceptions after two games. His uncharacteristic 62.8 completion percentage would rank as his worst in a Saints uniform if it does not improve.

Brees injured his throwing arm early in New Orleans’ Week 2 contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Evan Woodberry of the Times Picayune tweeted the quarterback admitted a few of his “downfield [throws] didn’t come out very well” as a result.

The Saints will travel to face a stout Carolina Panthers defense in Week 3. Carolina ranks ninth in passing yards against, surrendering just 204.0 per game, according to NFL.com. Granted Blake Bortles ($5,100) and Ryan Mallett ($5,000) aren’t close to Brees' caliber, but it’s an impressive total nonetheless especially while missing inside linebacker Luke Kuechly in Week 2.

Kuechly missed a start for the first time in his four-year, All-Pro career due to a concussion. His status for Week 3 is not yet known.

Now is not the time to pay top dollar for a dinged-up 36-year-old quarterback in a slump, even if the opponent were favorable. If you’re seeking a high-end QB for Week 3, there are far safer options than Brees available.

Week 3 Projection: 250 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats, unless otherwise noted. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted.

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