Predicting Playoffs or Bust for Each 2015 MLB 'Bubble' Team
Crunch time in the 2015 MLB season has arrived, as teams have just a couple more weeks to make a final push for a postseason spot.
The National League playoff picture looks to be set, at least as far as which five teams will earn a spot, but the NL Central standings are still far from decided.
Meanwhile, the American League picture is a bit more crowded with a tight race for the AL West crown and as many as five teams in the mix for the second wild-card spot.
So, as we like to do in situations like this, let's take a shot at predicting how things will play out for the teams currently on the bubble.
Note: All postseason probability numbers come courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and are accurate as of the morning of Sept. 17.
Zero National League Bubble Teams?
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Anything can happen in this crazy game, but at this point the five National League playoff spots look to be set.
The New York Mets (99.1 percent chance) and Los Angeles Dodgers (99.5 percent chance) both hold 7.5-game leads in their respective divisions. They look to be on a collision course for the National League Division Series.
The Dodgers are currently just 1.5 games up for the right to host that NLDS matchup, so those two teams still have something to play for down the stretch.
Meanwhile, the dogfight in the NL Central rages on as the St. Louis Cardinals (100 percent chance) lead the Pittsburgh Pirates (100 percent chance) by four games and the Chicago Cubs (99.5 percent chance) by seven games.
The Pirates actually have the second-best record in the National League at 87-58, while the Cubs currently have a 7.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants (0.9 percent chance) for the second wild-card spot.
To put that into perspective, even if the Giants somehow went undefeated the rest of the way, the Cubs could go no better than 9-8 for the Giants to have a chance at the postseason.
The same goes for the only other team with even a slim chance right now, the Washington Nationals (1.0 percent chance), as they trail the Mets by 7.5 games in the NL East.
If they were to go 17-0 the rest of the way, the Mets would have to go 9-7 for a one-game playoff to be in order.
Again, crazier things have certainly happened, but as of now it's hard to call anyone in the National League a bubble team.
Cleveland Indians
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Playoffs or Bust: Playoffs
2015 Record: 72-72 (-4.0 G in AL Wild Card)
Team Outlook
The Cleveland Indians have mounted an impressive late-season push to climb back into the playoff picture, going an AL-best 14-6 in their last 20 games to pull back to the .500 mark.
Manager Terry Francona credits a number of areas for the team's drastic turnaround, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com:
"When we started talking about things in the second half, I tried to be real careful in what I said. Because, regardless of who's playing, I never wanted to sacrifice winning. It just kind of goes to show you, if you give yourself a chance pitching, which we normally do, and our defense has drastically improved, and when players pay attention to detail, we've given ourselves a chance to win — a lot.
"
With ace Corey Kluber sidelined since Aug. 29 with a hamstring injury, the unlikely duo of Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson has given the rotation a boost. Now Kluber is set to return for the most important stretch of the year.
Offensively, Francisco Lindor is making a strong case to overtake Carlos Correa for AL Rookie of the Year honors.
He's led the Indians offense since the All-Star break with a .361/.402/.557 line that includes 16 doubles, seven home runs and 32 RBI in 56 games, and his WAR (3.8) is now higher than that of Correa (3.0).
It will come down to beating a pair of division rivals if the Indians are going to pull off the shocker, as they have seven games remaining against the Minnesota Twins and four games left against the Kansas City Royals.
They are 7-8 against the Royals and 5-7 against the Twins so far this season. The Indians also have losing records against their other two opponents in the White Sox (7-9) and Red Sox (1-2).
We're finally seeing the Indians team many picked to make a serious postseason run, but they will need to stay hot to pull off the shocker.
Remaining Games
(1) vs. KC
(3) vs. CWS
(3) @ MIN
(3) @ KC
(4) vs. MIN
(3) vs. BOS
(1) vs. DET (makeup if necessary)
Record Prediction: 13-5 (85-77)
Houston Astros
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Playoffs or Bust: Bust
Record: 77-69 (-1.5 G AL West, +1.5 G AL Wild Card)
Team Outlook
Much like the Oakland Athletics last season, the Houston Astros are in a free fall right now and clamoring just to make the playoffs after looking like the best team in the American League at times this year.
With an AL-worst 6-12 record in their last 18 games, they've seen their standing in the AL West go from a 5.5-game lead to a 1.5-game deficit, as they now trail the surging Texas Rangers.
George Springer has not provided the spark many expected him to in his return from the disabled list, while Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis have also slumped badly in September.
However, the biggest concern right now is the starting rotation, which has a 3-4 record and 4.88 ERA since the beginning of September, as even AL Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel has struggled of late.
Making matters worse, they have four games left against a Rangers team they've gone 4-11 against so far head-to-head, and their last six games are on the road where they've gone a dismal 29-45 overall on the year.
The Astros have been a great story all season, and the baseball fan in me genuinely wants to see the fruits of their rebuilding efforts pay off, but their current slide may leave them just short of the postseason.
"That's why we play baseball: to make the playoffs. Guys are cherishing this moment, and guys who have been there before are going to need to step up and be more vocal or show us exactly what it needs to take to get there," Keuchel told Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle.
Remaining Games
(1) @ TEX
(3) vs. OAK
(3) vs. LAA
(3) vs. TEX
(3) @ SEA
(3) @ ARI
Record Prediction: 7-9 (84-78)
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Los Angeles Angels
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Playoffs or Bust: Bust
Record: 73-72 (-5.0 G in AL West, -3.5 G in AL Wild Card)
Team Outlook
Despite what has been an anemic offense for much of the season, the Los Angeles Angels still find themselves in the hunt for an AL wild-card spot.
After leading the majors with 4.77 runs per game last year, they've averaged only 3.97 this year, good for 26th in the majors and 14th in the American League.
You would think, then, that their pitching staff has stepped up in a significant way to help bridge that gap, but it's actually gone in the wrong direction in that department as well:
- Starters ERA: 3.62 in 2014, 3.98 in 2015
- Bullpen ERA: 3.52 in 2014, 3.82 in 2015
- Team ERA: 3.58 in 2014, 3.92 in 2015
A 10-19 month of August saw the Angels slip from two games back in the division at the end of July to 7.5 back heading into September, but they've gone 8-6 this month to hang around in the wild-card chase.
With 11 games left against teams also battling for a playoff spot and 11 games left on the road, where they've gone 29-41 on the year, the Angels have a tough road ahead to salvage what has been a disappointing season.
Remaining Games
(4) @ MIN
(3) @ HOU
(3) vs. SEA
(3) vs. OAK
(4) @ TEX
Record Prediction: 8-9 (81-81)
Minnesota Twins
5 of 6
Playoffs or Bust: Bust
Record: 75-70 (-1.5 G in AL Wild Card)
Team Outlook
With all due respect to a Houston Astros team that is contending well ahead of schedule, there is little question the Minnesota Twins have been the biggest surprise of the 2015 season.
"The Minnesota Twins figure to bring up the rear once again," I wrote back in March while predicting the AL Central would be a four-team dogfight and the Twins would finish in the cellar at 65-97.
Instead, they exploded for a 20-7 month of May to establish themselves as a team to watch, and they have managed to stay right in the middle of everything since.
Now, that one huge month is great, but it can also make a team's overall record a bit deceiving.
The Milwaukee Brewers went 20-7 to open the 2014 season and held onto their lead in the NL Central for much of the year simply by playing .500 baseball. They were eventually passed by the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates down the stretch, though, and wound up missing the playoffs.
To that point, the Twins have actually played below .500 since June 1 at 45-51.
Only the Oakland Athletics (42-51) and Detroit Tigers (39-54) have a worse record over the last 3.5 months, so it's hard to be overly confident in the Twins' chances of making the playoffs or of succeeding should they manage to get there.
Remaining Games
(4) vs. LAA
(3) vs. CLE
(3) @ DET
(4) @ CLE
(3) vs. KC
Record Prediction: 7-10 (82-80)
Texas Rangers
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Playoffs or Bust: Playoffs
Record: 78-67 (+1.5 G in AL West, +3.0 G in AL Wild Card)
Postseason Probability: 84.0 percent
Team Outlook
Oftentimes, one game or one specific moment can be pointed to as the turning point in a team's season.
For the Texas Rangers, that turning point came in the form of a 21-5 thumping at the hands of the New York Yankees back on July 28.
That loss dropped the Rangers to 47-52 overall, putting them eight games back in the AL West standings and five games back with six teams to pass for the second wild-card spot.
Since then, however, the team has gone 31-15 and overtaken the slumping Houston Astros for the AL West lead.
"It’s a focused ball club,” manager Jeff Banister told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Don't be surprised if Banister claims AL Manager of the Year honors when award season rolls around.
The trade for Cole Hamels certainly helped, but a healthy Derek Holland has been equally important to what now looks to be a dangerous starting rotation.
The offense continues to chug along behind resurgent seasons from Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, though contributions have also come in the unlikely form of the once-demoted Rougned Odor and Rule 5 pick Delino DeShields Jr.
Everything is falling into place for the Rangers right now, and they not only look like the favorites in the AL West heading into the final weeks, but they also look like a team destined to make noise in October.
Remaining Games
(1) vs. HOU
(3) vs. SEA
(3) @ OAK
(3) @ HOU
(3) vs. DET
(4) vs. LAA
Record Prediction: 11-6 (89-73)
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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