Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions are 6-3 in their last nine Black and Blue Division bouts with the Minnesota Vikings, including a sweep of last season's two games. But the Vikings are 5-2 against the spread over the last seven meetings in the series. A pair of Midwestern teams that both lost on the West Coast last week meet when the Lions visit Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.6-21.6 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit opened this season last week with a 33-28 loss against the San Diego Chargers, just missing the cover as a 3.5-point road dog. The Lions jumped out to a 21-3 second-quarter lead but let it slip away as the Chargers scored 30 straight points. Detroit got back within one score with just over a minute to go, but an onside kick failed.

The Lions got 50 yards rushing on just seven carries Sunday from rookie running back Ameer Abdullah, 24 on a first-quarter scoring jaunt, and the defense held San Diego to 95 yards rushing on 30 carries. But they just couldn't stop Philip Rivers.

Detroit is coming off an 11-5 campaign with a playoff appearance, and although the Lions lost defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh, they are hoping for an improved running game, which would help get them back to the playoffs.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikes opened this season Monday night with a disappointing performance, losing to the San Francisco 49ers 20-3. Apparently, reports of the 49ers' demise might be exaggerated. Minnesota played the Niners to a 0-0 tie late into the second quarter, but with little help from what looked like a rusty offensive outfit, the Vikings defense tired, eventually allowing 230 yards on the ground.

After going 7-9 in its first season under head coach Mike Zimmer last year, Minnesota is hoping the return of running back Adrian Peterson, with a more experienced Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, will propel the team up the standings this season. Monday night didn't go well, but it's only one game, and the Vikings are better than that. Also, while Minnesota got swept by Detroit last season, its defense gave up a total of just 33 points in the two games.

Smart pick

Teams that outrushed their opponents in Week 1 compiled a 10-5-1 mark ATS. For this game, the team most likely to do so, despite Monday night's performance, looks like Minnesota. So the smart money here resides with the Vikings.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in 10 of the Lions' last 14 games against the Vikings.
• The Lions are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road in September.
• The Vikings are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.