NFL Picks Week 2: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

Now we have a better idea of what's going on. With one week in the books, we have an understanding, or at least an inkling, of how teams are going to play, as well as what the strengths and weaknesses are around the NFL.

We will know more prior to the Week 3 games and still more prior to Week 4. By the time teams have played four games, we should know all we need to about talent level, philosophy and a team's ability to execute. That does not mean we will get them right at that point, but it means we will know a lot more than we do now.

We have learned that the San Diego Chargers are no longer intimidated by a huge deficit, especially when they play at home, and that the Buffalo Bills can play aggressive and effective defense.

The Chicago Bears are a much more professional operation under John Fox, and the Miami Dolphins have quite a bit of work to do even though they beat the Washington Redskins on the road.

In this piece, we will go into detail for three games on this week's schedule and give you a pick against the spread with a reason for all Week 2 games. All odds are courtesy of OddsShark.

Game	Spread	Selection	Rationale
Denver at Kansas City	KC -3	Kansas City	Manning simply not the same player and the Chiefs will exploit the weakness.
New England at Buffalo	Even	Buffalo	Rex Ryan's defense will have its way in this early-season game.
Houston at Carolina	Car. -3	Carolina	Houston coaching staff not getting the most out of talented team.
Arizona at Chicago	Ariz. -1	Arizona	Chicago QB Cutler will make crucial mistake when the game is on the line.
San Diego at Cincinnati	Cin. -3	San Diego	Bengals are like bullies. They will shrivel when QB Rivers fires a shot.
Tennessee at Cleveland	Cle. -1	Tennessee	Mariota's not a miracle worker, but he's good enough to beat Browns and Johnny Football.
Detroit at Minnesota	No line	Minnesota	Seeds of doubt have been planted with Lions after blowing huge Week 1 lead at San Diego
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO -11.5	New Orleans	What has happened to Lovie Smith's defense? No longer the guru he was in Chicago.
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants	No line	NYG	After embarrassing clock management in Dallas, Giants right the ship in home opener.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh	No line	Pitt.	Steelers have too many weapons on offense and Niners have too many problems.
St. Louis at Washington	St. L -3	St. Louis	The swift Rams are much too fast for the slowish Redskins.
Miami at Jacksonville	Mia. -7	Miami	Dolphins played poorly but won in opener; they will play much better here against limited opponent.
Baltimore at Oakland	No line	Baltimore	Ravens much too strong defensively for young Raiders.
Dallas at Philadelphia	No line	Philadelphia	Look for DeMarco Murray to punish his old team with signature performance.
Seattle at Green Bay	GB -3	Green Bay	Packers have been waiting for this game since blowing NFC title, and they won't miss.
N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis	Ind. -7.5	Indianapolis	Luck comes up with signature performance at home on Monday night.

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

The Chiefs are coming off a relatively easy road win over the Houston Texans, and that 27-20 victory was one of the more impressive Week 1 performances.

They come home for the first time this season before a national TV audience and the raucous home fans at Arrowhead Stadium against the Denver Broncos. This game could be similar to the early-season game the Chiefs had last year against the New England Patriots. The Chiefs jumped out ahead in that game and rolled over the eventual Super Bowl champions by a 41-14 margin.

The Broncos have a solid defense, but Peyton Manning is just a shell of his former self. He threw 40 passes Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens for 175 yards, and that meant his average was just 4.4 yards per throw.

That's an indication that he just doesn't have the zip in his arm any longer. Just two years ago, Manning was perhaps the most dangerous quarterback in football. Now he looks like an older man who doesn't want to give up the game.

The Kansas City defense features Justin Houston, the league's leading sacker last year with 22.0, and Tamba Hali. Manning can't get away from pressure the way he once did, and he will try to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid getting hit.

That's not a formula for winning games. Kansas City will roll.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Houston at Carolina (-3)

If we were handicapping games based strictly on individual talent, it would be hard to go against the Houston Texans in most games.

Especially when it comes to individual talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Texans have J.J. Watt, the NFL's reigning Defensive Player of the Year. He excels at rushing the quarterback and getting the sack, but he can also bat down passes and dominate against the run.

Watt does not have to be a one-man show. Jadeveon Clowney, the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft, is healthy this year, and he has remarkable speed and power. Additionally, Brian Cushing is one of the hardest-hitting linebackers in the league.

Many teams would be thrilled to have one player like that, but the Texans have three. 

However, Houston laid an egg in its home opener as the Texans gave up 27 points to the run-oriented Kansas City Chiefs in the first half. They didn't play at anything close to their talent level.

Now they go on the road against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. If Alex Smith could throw three TD passes against the Texans, what will a more dangerous quarterback like Newton do to them?

The Panthers may have won the NFC South last year, but they were an unimpressive 7-8-1. Head coach Ron Rivera needs his team to play well, or he could face some very difficult music in a meeting with owner Jerry Richardson.

Look for the Panthers to play exceptional football at home against a Houston team that will likely be doubting itself. The home team covers the spread.

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)

We believe the linemakers are inviting us to take the Jets in this game.

New York opened the season with a relatively easy win at home over the Cleveland Browns, while the highly regarded Colts got hammered hard on the road by the physical and nasty Buffalo Bills.

Andrew Luck struggled badly in the first half as the Bills built a sizable lead. While he was able to throw for 243 yards and two touchdowns, he also threw two interceptions, and the Colts were chasing the Bills throughout the game before falling 27-14.

The Jets are also a solid defensive team, so they should also be able to hold Luck in check, right?

Not likely. The Colts have a shot at coming out of the AFC this year, and they are not going to accept a season-opening defeat and just go on with their business. They will be pumped up to play their home opener on Monday night, and they will play their best game.

Look for the Colts to pull away in the second half.

So, the oddsmakers may have given us an invitation to take the Jets, but we will turn it down and go with the home team.