Week 1 NFL Picks: Season-Opening Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections
The early bird gets the proverbial worm when it comes to early Week 1 NFL odds out of Las Vegas.
Such an early-week approach works wonders for bettors willing to put in the time and effort and capitalize on lines Las Vegas will adjust later in the week to better protect the house. This approach is especially potent this week, though, as Las Vegas has to account for coaching and personnel changes, injuries, rookies and much more.
Right now would be the best time to perfect this strategy and take advantage of the gracious early-week lines. It's clear Vegas will play its cards close to its chest with close lines, but there is still an avenue for bettors to build a padded bankroll to start the year if they look hard enough.
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NFL Week 1 Odds
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Top Early Odds to Bet
Tennessee vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5)
While the battle of rookie quarterbacks sounds like fun, it looks like it should be a pretty lopsided affair.
Barring an epic performance from rookie wideout Dorial Green-Beckham and a surprising outburst from back Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will have a tough time moving the ball on the road.
Not only are the Buccaneers at home and sporting a defense led by the elite Gerald McCoy, linebacker Lavonte David and corner Alterraun Verner, but No. 1 pick Jameis Winston figures to have an easy time.
It's not hard to see why:
Besides the elite receivers from one year ago, the offensive line sports two new starters to protect Winston, and Doug Martin has looked healthy and dominant this preseason, posting six rushes for 59 yards in one game and nine for 40 and a touchdown in another.
Tampa Bay stands as one of this year's best turnaround stories. The defensive talent never left, the offensive line needed an upgrade and got it and the offense got the most-hyped quarterback this side of Andrew Luck.
Look for Martin to gash the Titans and for Winston to make the necessary throws to pull away early and never look back.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Tennessee 14
Green Bay (-3.5) vs. Chicago
| Pittsburgh vs. New England | NE -7 | PIT 28-24 |
| Seattle vs. St. Louis | SEA -4 | SEA 17-10 |
| Green Bay vs. Chicago | GB -3.5 | GB 35-17 |
| Kansas City vs. Houston | HOU -2.5 | HOU 20-14 |
| Cleveland vs. NY Jets | NYJ -3 | CLE 13-6 |
| Miami vs. Washington | MIA -1.5 | MIA 28-13 |
| Carolina vs. Jacksonville | CAR -2.5 | CAR 14-13 |
| Indianapolis vs. Buffalo | IND -2.5 | IND 17-14 |
| Detroit vs. San Diego | SD -2 | DET 23-20 |
| New Orleans vs. Arizona | ARI -3 | ARI 24-23 |
| Cincinnati vs. Oakland | CIN -3 | CIN 27-24 |
| Baltimore vs. Denver | DEN -4 | DEN 20-10 |
| Tennessee vs. Tampa Bay | TB -2.5 | TB 24-14 |
| NY Giants vs. Dallas | DAL -5 | DAL 24-20 |
| Philadelphia vs. Atlanta | PHI -1 | PHI 30-27 |
| Minnesota vs. San Francisco | SF -4.5 | MIN 24-20 |
Betting over is always a brave endeavor, but it's easy to see why with this contest.
It's easy to freak out about the Green Bay Packers' losing Jordy Nelson. Losing someone who caught 98 balls for 1,519 yards and 13 scores a year ago isn't an easy pill to swallow, but it's important for bettors to remember that the Packers are a team led by Aaron Rodgers.
In other words, expect a big game from Davante Adams, who averaged almost 90 yards per game in the five contests in which he totaled a minimum of seven targets. This means the offense will move with or without Nelson, and it sounds like a slight injury issue won't hold Randall Cobb out of the contest, either.
"I don't plan on missing a game," Cobb said, via ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. "I'm doing everything in my power to get back before then."
All the above is bad news for the Chicago Bears, a team that just cut its second-best corner, Tim Jennings. To make matters worse, tackle Jay Ratliff is suspended, and prized rookie Eddie Goldman suffered a concussion in the preseason.
It appears the Bears will need to post a healthy amount of points to compete, but it's not as easy as it sounds: Another prized rookie, wideout Kevin White, starts the season on the PUP list.
This leaves a hodgepodge of names and Alshon Jeffery to burden the load. Incidentally, the Bears won't let Jeffery talk to the media as he battles his way back from a calf injury.
Long story short, the Bears look like an imploding team before the season even begins. This line is too generous and won't last long, so bettors might want to get clicking in a hurry.
Prediction: Packers 35, Bears 17
Minnesota vs. San Francisco (-4.5)
| Mike Evans | 68 | 124 | 1051 | 12 |
| Vincent Jackson | 70 | 143 | 1002 | 2 |
If the Bears are a hot pick to self-destruct, their divisional counterparts in Minnesota are one of the hot picks to blow up this season.
When it comes to the Vikings, it almost seems too easy. Adrian Peterson is back, and while he's had time away, he's Adrian Peterson. If anything, the time he used to rest his body means bad news for the first team he encounters.
Also encouraging is the team's progress on defense behind the guidance of coach Mike Zimmer, who specializes in that area. His unit only figures to get better led by young guns such as Sharrif Floyd, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith and Trae Waynes.
Offense might be the most encouraging of all, though, thanks to second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He completed 64.4 percent of his passes with 2,919 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. Things continue to get better around him thanks to Peterson, the addition of deep threat Mike Wallace, the health of Kyle Rudolph and the addition of starting right tackle T.J. Clemmings.
By the sound of it, Bridgewater's in for a huge sophomore campaign, as Britt McHenry of ESPN noted:
What about the 49ers? By now, everyone should know that they just had one of the worst offseasons in league history, losing big names such as Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Patrick Willis and Mike Iupati.
The 49ers have a lot of kinks to work out. They need to usher in a new era along the coaching staff, at running back and along the defense. Perhaps worst of all, Colin Kaepernick could never get going in the preseason, suffering three sacks and a safety with miserable passing totals.
Should the line struggle and the defense hiccup out of the gates against a promising young quarterback with more weapons than ever, the Vikings should be able to control the pace of the game on the road under the lights of Monday Night Football.
Prediction: Vikings 24, 49ers 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of September 6. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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