NFL Betting Props: Win Total Odds Analysis for Vikings, Chiefs

The NFL is known for annual parity, and the start of the season brings out armchair experts who think they know how the final standings will look and what teams will be in and out of the playoffs.

Of course, if they were all right, Las Vegas sportsbooks would no longer be in business, and new casinos would not be going up on the Strip.

NFL win totals are a popular way for bettors to back up their words with their wallets and try to beat the book, but each year the media build up a number of trendy teams, while others fly under the radar.

With that said, this year’s overhyped team is the Minnesota Vikings, and the most underrated team is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Vikings are the preseason darlings of the NFC North and widely expected to at least finish .500 in 2015 with an 8-8 record. Last year, Minnesota went 7-9 without All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson because of a suspension, so the assumption is the team will be at least one win better with him on the field.

Plus, second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater should be much improved.

However, the rest of the division will be tough except for maybe the Chicago Bears, who will have a new head coach on the sidelines in John Fox. Vikings second-year head coach Mike Zimmer has a good defense but does not have elite offensive talent besides Peterson, who at 30 years old will only start slowing down as well.

For that reason, a wager on under 7.5 wins at plus-195 at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark screams value because everyone loves the over.

A team that is undervalued this year is the Chiefs, who have gone over 8.5 wins in each of head coach Andy Reid’s first two seasons in Kansas City. That is their win total number for 2015, and bettors need to lay a small price of minus-130 to take the over.

Say what you want about Reid in the postseason, but he is an excellent regular-season coach with only three losing years among his 16 overall in the league. His Philadelphia Eagles teams also ended up 8-8 twice, so the chances of the Chiefs finishing above the number seem strong.

Keep in mind that this is partially based on Gary Kubiak taking over for Fox with the Denver Broncos, who should not be as good as in years past.