NFL Predictions 2015: Record Projections for Top Super Bowl Contenders

In a league conducive to fast turnarounds and unpredictable results, several perennial NFL powerhouses have provided stability on top of the league's hierarchy.

Few certainties exist in sports, but the NFL's premier squads aren't going anywhere. As the New York Giants have twice proved in the past decade, anything can happen in the postseason. Yet the cream of the crop has represented each of the past two Super Bowl clashes. Will it happen a third time?

The postseason is ultimately too random to project this early, so let's instead predict regular-season records for three of the league's top title contenders.

Seattle Seahawks

Where else to start but the team that came one yard away from securing back-to-back championships? With all their stars returning, the Seattle Seahawks will look to earn the NFC's No. 1 seed for the third straight year. 

In both seasons, Seattle earned Football Outsiders' highest Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) thanks to a dominant defense. Last year, it led the NFL in yards and points allowed per game. The Legion of Boom stifled offenses and conceded the league's fewest passing yards, but the rushing defense needs to keep up after only yielding the second-fewest yards per carry.

All of the defensive studs are back, but Cary Williams now has the unenviable task of being targeted ad nauseam as other teams avoid testing Richard Sherman.

According to Pro Football Focus, opponents caught 56 of 99 targets directed at the former Philadelphia Eagles cornerback for 757 yards and five touchdowns last year. Yet Byron Maxwell yielded a higher catch rate (64.7) as Seattle's second starter, so let's not lose any sleep over the league's premier point-prevention unit.

If anything, the Seahawks can improve with some offensive progression. The NFL's least pass-reliant team added a major weapon in tight end Jimmy Graham, the best target Russell Wilson has received in his career. Although the starting offense has yet to score a preseason touchdown, the quarterback marveled over his new teammate, via NFLonCBS:

The scheduling gods, however, haven't done the Seahawks any favors, setting them up against the AFC North and NFC North along with a rematch against the Dallas Cowboys, who sullied CenturyLink Field's mystical luster. 

As a result, any improvements won't show on the ledger. After all, it's tough for a 12-4 squad to get much better. With Graham bolstering their one area for improvement, the Seahawks will again earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

2015 Prediction: 13-3 (First place in NFC West)

New England Patriots

This may be old news to everyone, but the New England Patriots will start the season without Tom Brady, barring a repeal of his four-game suspension. According to USA Today's Rachel Axon, litigation could drag out after a federal judge makes his ruling as soon as Monday (and yes, all of this is over footballs containing a little less air than usual):

"

Barring a last-minute settlement or delay by the court, Judge Richard M. Berman will either confirm or vacate the four-game suspension NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell upheld following Brady’s arbitration. That decision could come even as early as Monday, when all parties will be present in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Berman has said he will try to rule by Sept. 4, a date agreed upon by the union and the league that would allow the Patriots to adjust for Brady’s availability for the Sept. 10 season opener.

An appeal is expected regardless which side prevails.

"

Without Brady, New England must combat the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys. The former MVP then would return for a road game at the Indianapolis Colts, creating a trying stretch that will test its division supremacy with the Bills and the Miami Dolphins rising.

Speaking of the Dolphins, a study conducted by Kurt Bullard of the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (h/t Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm) labeled them AFC favorites. Adding Ndamukong Suh, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker makes them a serious threat.

New England also can't be happy to see Rex Ryan stay in the division with another stout defense at his disposal in Buffalo. And although the New York Jets aren't considerable threats, they poached star cornerback Darrelle Revis, taking away a major component of the Pats' No. 6-graded defense, according to Pro Football Focus.

They're not a slam dunk to win the AFC East, but betting against the Patriots isn't smart. They've won at least 12 games in each of the past five seasons, notching double-digit victories through 12 consecutive seasons. 

Despite a shaky start to 2014, they finished with the NFL's best point differential (plus-155) before seizing the Lombardi Trophy. Don't expect another perfect season presented with a revenge narrative, but they'll find a way to maintain the division crown.

2015 Prediction: 11-5 (First Place in AFC East)

Denver Broncos

After a record-setting 2013, the Denver Broncos still scored 30.1 points per game and won their fourth straight AFC West title. Yet as a result of their postseason dud against the Indianapolis Colts, they aren't entering the season with the usual grand expectations.

Instead, they're walking into 2015 with trepidation. After narrowly missing playoff bids, both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers are capable of dethroning Denver. Peyton Manning added to the concern with a startling admission to MMQB's Peter King:

"

I can’t feel anything in my fingertips. It’s crazy. I’ve talked to a doctor recently who said, Don’t count on the feeling coming back. It was hard for me for about two years, because one doctor told me I could wake up any morning and it might come back. So you wake up every day thinking, Today’s the day! Then it’s not.

"

Well, that's not ideal. Before freaking out, remember that Manning compiled 4,727 passing yards and 39 touchdowns and a 101.5 quarterback rating during what skeptics are considering a down year. Also, he has a quietly phenomenal defense on his side.

Rank	Team	Grade
1	Denver Broncos	135.3
2	Baltimore Ravens	116.8
3	Detroit Lions	87.7
4	Seattle Seahawks	83.8
5	New York Jets	83.5

Only the Seahawks and Detroit Lions yielded fewer yards than Denver (305.2) last season. Pro Football Focus views the group in even higher regard, awarding it NFL's highest defensive grade by a substantial margin:

DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller draw recognition as fierce pass-rushers, but Malik Jackson rated PFF's third-best defensive end due to his stout run-stuffing. In the secondary, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib still represent the league's top cornerback tandem.

Manning had a bad game against his old team to end Denver's title quest. It happens. One off day, however, isn't enough to assume the beginning of the end. 

2015 Prediction: 12-4 (First Place in AFC West)