Yordan Alvarez and PCA's Likely MVP Wins Mark the End of MLB's Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani Era

It feels weird, doesn't it? Heading into MVP announcement day, knowing that Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge won't have their names called.

If this is presumptuous, it's only because Pete Crow-Armstrong and Yordan Alvarez are not yet official winners of the National League and American League, respectively. They were overwhelming favorites at the end of 2026, with FanDuel putting PCA's odds at -1500 and Alvarez's at -20000.

Crow-Armstrong went off for 45 home runs while playing Platinum Glove defense in center field. Alvarez led the majors in average, on-base percentage and slugging, while also slamming 42 homers. You can't ask for more than that from two individual players. Hence the pending MVP honors.

Ohtani is at least an NL MVP finalist, but even that feels dated. The four-time MVP was doing his two-way superstar thing for the Los Angeles Dodgers through June, but then knee and biceps injuries crashed the party. He last pitched on July 3. He didn't hit another home run after collecting his 30th on August 18.

Judge? He was nowhere to be seen by then, sidelined by a shoulder injury that kept him out of action from May 31 to September 8. Even after he returned, he hit the IL again just a week later with a calf strain.

So, after one or both captured an MVP each year between 2021 and 2025, MLB's Ohtani-Judge era is at least temporarily over. In all likelihood, it's permanent.

Shohei Ohtani's Unicorn Act Is Under Threat

The thing about doubting Ohtani is that you do so at your own peril. His whole vibe is that even if you tell him not to jump, he'll still ask, "How high?" He jumps really damn high.

Yet, there is the problem that the Dodgers were always bound to run into and finally did this year: Shohei Ohtani is human.

Without relitigating what went wrong or who should have said what and when, it is unmistakable that 2026 is a turning point for Ohtani's career. Despite the injuries he had this year and his two elbow surgeries, he still wants to pitch. Even so, the Dodgers simply can't plan on having him pitch and hit for the entirety of a 162-game season.

"I think it's about us putting our heads together and talking about how to start and maintain the conversations as we go," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in October, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. "Whether we start a little bit late — I don't know the answer to how we're going to do this, and we'll spend some time and be as thoughtful as we can about it. What that is, exactly, I don't know right now."

Ohtani's 2.68 ERA since 2021 is the best of any pitcher with at least 100 starts. His 1.79 ERA over 14 outings this year shows he can still dominate when he pitches. But if this is to be the extent of his workload, the days of his hitting and pitching being equal partners in an MVP race (as in 2022 and 2023) are over.

If so, his bat will have to carry the freight as it did in 2024 and 2025. All that took was some, well, Ohtanian standards: an OPS over 1.000 and north of 50 homers both years, plus 79 stolen bases in total.

Yet with Ohtani staring down his age-32 season in 2027, the threat of his bat having entered its post-prime years is very real. His .949 OPS and 40-homer pace before he broke down this August may be telling. If that's a hint at his new normal, expectations must adjust accordingly.

What seems for sure is that we'll never again see a 50-50 season like the one Ohtani had in 2024. Of course, it had never been done before that year. Even if he were to figuratively hang up his pitching arm and go back to hitting full-time, it would still be hard to turn the clock back to that magical year. You're only 29 once.

Aaron Judge Has Entered Historical Post-MVP Territory

Though he perhaps should have, as a 25-year-old in 2017, Judge didn't win an MVP before turning 30 in 2022. Then he won three in four years.

Yet even if Judge has a case (i.e., career 176 OPS+) as the greatest right-handed hitter ever, time comes for everyone. This year's struggles made it two injury-marred seasons out of the last four. The New York Yankees are prepared to take precautions against further trouble.

Specifically, Yankees GM Brian Cashman made it clear during this week's GM Meetings that he foresees more time at designated hitter for Judge in the future. Here's a quote courtesy of Chris Kirschner of The Athletic:

"I'm sure he's going to need some DH time. I'm sure he doesn't want to hear that. He's an alpha. He wants to play every day… But I would think at times we'll see Judge playing DH because it's what's in his best interest, and what's in his best interest is going to be what's in our best interest, if we can just make sure that we can maintain health. He's one of the game's great players. We've got to keep those guys on the field as much as we can to get where we want to go."

In theory, more DH duty can only help keep Judge healthy and productive. But in reality, it would also make him less valuable. As an everyday outfielder, Judge has four seasons of 8+ WAR on his record. As an everyday DH, take it from Alvarez: even elite hitting from that spot only pushes WAR so far. Without any defensive value, he's twice topped out at 6.8 rWAR.

More to the point, next year will be Judge's age-35 season. The last time a hitter that age or older won an MVP award was Barry Bonds, who won annually in his age-36 and age-39 seasons from 2001 to 2004.

Before him, the only other older hitters to pull off an MVP win were Mike Schmidt (36) in 1986 and Willie Stargell (39) in 1979. And that's it. The whole list.

Who Else Could Arise in a Post-Ohtani, Post-Judge MVP Landscape?

What do they say about how when one door closes, another opens?

That's what baseball could be in for if the era of Ohtani and Judge hogging the MVP awards is indeed over. It could even be the start of a new era, like when the end of Bonds' historic 2001-04 run opened the door for Albert Pujols to win three NL MVPs between 2005 and 2009.

Because Crow-Armstrong (24) and Alvarez (29) are in their primes, they're sure to be heard from again in future MVP races. There are also contenders who have been in the running before and could be bound to luck out eventually, such as:

• Bobby Witt Jr.: He's 26 and has averaged 7.8 rWAR across the last three seasons
• Juan Soto: He's still just 28 and an annual lock for a .400 OBP and 30 homers
• Julio Rodríguez: He's 25 and he's a 30-30 hitter and lockdown center fielder when he's right
• Elly De La Cruz: He's not yet 25, and he has a 30-30 season and two 5-WAR seasons under him
• Corbin Carroll: He's 26 and MLB's foremost extra-base hit and stolen base machine

Among this year's Rookie of the Year contenders, Kevin McGonigle absolutely has MVP upside. That may be where JJ Wetherholt and Carson Benge are headed, too. If Sal Stewart can ride home runs and RBI to a major award win, maybe guys like Pete Alonso, Junior Caminero and Nick Kurtz can, too.

It's rare for full-time pitchers to prevail in an MVP race. Lower standards for modern arms don't figure to reverse that trend. But if Cam Schlittler could be touted as an MVP candidate, then Jacob Misiorowski might one day as well. Ditto for Paul Skenes if he can get his act together.

While we're dropping names, let's go full "Screw it!" and do a wild card round: Jackson Chourio, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jac Caglianone, Konnor Griffin, Roman Anthony.

Pick a name. Any name. Then go ahead and drop it. For the first time in a half-decade, any guess for a future MLB MVP is as good as Ohtani or Judge.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.