MLB MVP 2026 Head-to-Head Breakdown for Yordan Alvarez, Pete Crow-Armstrong

MLB award season will conclude with Thursday's announcement of the AL and ML MVPs.

Six finalists—three from each league—are technically in the wrong running, but oddsmakers have been ready to call these races for a while.

In fact, FanDuel has removed its MVP odds, so we'll have to review their end-of-season odds just to get a feel for how lopsided things appear in the favors of Yordan Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstong.

We'll also break down the cases for all six candidates to see if Alvarez and Crow-Armstrong are the shoe-ins that oddsmakers regard them to be.

MVP Finalists, End-of-Season Odds

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American League

Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros -20000 (bet $20,000 to win $100)

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals

National League

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs -1500

Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Dodgers +750

Brice Turang, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers

Finalists per MLB.com. Odds from FanDuel (h/t Fox Sports) as of September 19

AL Breakdown

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While Aaron Judge was crowned AL MVP each of the last two seasons and three of the past four, injuries knocked him out of the race this time around. And Yordan Alvarez did everything in his power to ensure there wouldn't be any race to speak of.

Alvarez hit an MLB-best .316 this season. His 42 homers tied for fourth overall and second in the AL. He ranked second in the AL in RBI (106) and tied for first in the AL in runs scored (106) and was one of two players (along with Crow-Armstong) to hold top-five MLB rankings in both categories. Alvarez also paced all players in on-base percentage (.432), slugging percentage (.601) and OPS (1.033).

No one in the AL had a resume this rich, though Junior Caminero and Bobby Witt Jr. at least kept things respectable. Caminero nearly matched that power production with 42 homers, 101 RBI and 100 runs, but his slash line didn't measure up. Witt, an MVP finalist for the second time in three seasons, paired elite defense with 18 homers, 45 stolen bases and 94 runs scored.

All three had strong seasons, but the numbers see it the same way as the oddsmakers: Only Alvarez can claim to have put forth an MVP campaign.

NL Breakdown

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The last two NL MVP awards went to Shohei Ohtani—as did the top AL honors in 2021 and 2023. Had he stayed healthy this season, perhaps the two-way star would need to be clearing more room in his trophy case right now.

But Ohtani wasn't healthy or himself for big chunks of this season. Perhaps of equal importance, Crow-Armstong was spectacular, ending this race long before the final buzzer sounded.

A Gold Glove winner in center field, PCA gained entry into the famed 40/40 club with career-highs of 45 homers (tied for best in the Majors) and 41 steals (tied for fourth overall, second-best in the NL). His 119 runs scored led all players, and his 107 RBI ranked fourth. His 9.8 WAR paced the league in dominant fashion; no one else cleared 7.3, and only seven other players reached 6.0.

As for the competition, Turang had the season's second-highest WAR (7.3), while pairing Gold Glove defense with 21 homers, 19 steals and 202 combined runs and RBI. Ohtani, who played just 135 games, tallied 30 homers, 11 steals and 170 combined runs and RBI while pitching to a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85.2 innings.

Ohtani's two-way talent is unrivaled, and Turang is good-to-great in all facets, but the numbers aren't lying. Crow-Armstrong is the NL MVP, and it shouldn't be close.