Latest 2027 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections

Many will say that updating projections for the men's NCAA tournament a mere week into the 2026-27 regular season is nothing short of lunacy.

We would counter that those people don't know how to have fun.

Because, yes, that's all bracketology is for at least the first month of the regular season: Fun.

We won't have NET rankings for another few weeks—last year's initial rankings were released on Dec. 1—which means "quads" won't be part of the discourse just yet. Even when those rankings arrive, there's little reason to expect them to resemble the final version some 100 days later.

For the diehards, though, bracketology is all about the season-long journey—the constant twists and turns that eventually bring us to the final product. And that journey began eight days ago.

Remember, results from the first half of November mean just as much to the selection committee as the results from the first half of March. In fact, one could easily argue these early results are even more important, because they establish the baseline for how teams will be judged for the rest of the season.

So, let's have some fun while recapping and (over)reacting to some of the biggest developments from the first week back on the hardwood.

Projected Bracket

Later in the season, automatic bids will be determined by conference record. For now, they are determined by KenPom ranking.

Also, please forgive any first-round pairings which are rematches of scheduled nonconference games. We won't start worrying about avoiding those until shortly after Feast Week.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

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1. Duke Blue Devils

2. Florida Gators

3. Illinois Fighting Illini

4. Connecticut Huskies

5. Houston Cougars

6. Michigan State Spartans

7. Kansas Jayhawks

If you don't love the ordering of these top seven teams, rest assured there will be plenty of head-to-head showdowns within this tier to help us sort everything out.

Between now and Dec. 1, Duke will face Michigan State in the Champions Classic on Nov. 10, host Illinois on Nov. 17, take on Connecticut in Las Vegas on Nov. 25 and travel to Florida for the headliner of the ACC-SEC Challenge on Dec. 1.

Throw in UConn facing Illinois in Chicago on Dec. 4 before hosting Kansas on Dec. 12, conference clashes between Illinois and Michigan State and between Houston and Kansas in early February, and the possibility of Florida facing Houston and Kansas on consecutive days in the Players Era 8, and you have a potential 10 games between No. 1 seed contenders.

In particular, circle Duke-Illinois and Duke-Florida on your calendar. Those matchups feature our top three teams in the country, and both will be played on campus—making them all the more fun to watch.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

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Fifth-to-Last In: Utah State Aggies—Head coach keeps changing, but this offense remains super efficient.

Fourth-to-Last In: VCU Rams—Heartbreaking loss at Memphis, but the Rams looked the part.

Third-to-Last In: Oklahoma State Cowboys—That 50-point shellacking of Queens was quite the early statement.

Second-to-Last In: Xavier Musketeers—Unremarkable competition, but this defense appears to be much improved.

Last Team In: Notre Dame Fighting Irish—Got to get 'em in after beating Villanova in Rome.

***Cut Line***

First Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies—Blew out Coppin State and Mercer; faces Iowa on Tuesday.

Second Team Out: Boise State Broncos—Dropped a hundo on Butler; big opportunity against Nebraska ahead.

Third Team Out: Nevada Wolf Pack—Overtime win over Saint Mary's could be one to remember.

Fourth Team Out: Florida State Seminoles—Freshman big man Marcis Ponder could help end tourney drought.

Fifth Team Out: Providence Friars—Couldn't buy a bucket in the neutral loss to Nebraska.

ACC Summary

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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Duke, 8. Virginia, 12. Louisville, 23. Miami (FL), 33. North Carolina, 48. Clemson, 53. Notre Dame

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Florida State

Biggest Development: Notre Dame Back?

For the most part, the ACC spent the opening week beating up on nobodies in buy games.

At any rate, through the end of play on Saturday, the league was 34-2 overall, but 1-2 against teams in the KenPom top 150.

The losses were Miami falling by 10 to No. 1-ranked Florida and Wake Forest getting smoked at No. 24 Vanderbilt, both of which were the expected outcomes.

Notre Dame beating Villanova in Rome, though?

That's arguably the Fighting Irish's most impressive win since hiring Micah Shrewsberry as their head coach shortly after the 2022-23 campaign ended.

If name confusion is commonplace in your life, best of luck with Notre Dame's big three of Braeden Smith, Braeden Shrewsberry and Brady Koehler. Each member of that trio went for at least 15 points against Villanova. And in their first game of the season on US soil, Shrewsberry and Koehler each scored 17 while Smith tallied 10 assists in a rout of Mercyhurst.

Give it a few more days and we'll find out in a big way just how legitimate this team is. They face Florida in the opening round of the Players Era 8 on Nov. 17, could draw Houston the following day and might even run into Kansas on the 19th.

Most likely, they'll lose to Florida, beat Rutgers on Wednesday and run into West Virginia or Auburn in the fifth-place game. But what a three-day stretch that could be for the Irish.

Elsewhere, goodness gracious did Virginia ever put a thumping on Arkansas on Sunday afternoon. We had the Cavaliers as a No. 4 seed in the preseason, but they have to vault to the back of the No. 2 seed line for that statement victory.

Big 12 Summary

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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 5. Houston, 7. Kansas, 10. Arizona, 19. Texas Tech, 20. BYU, 21. Iowa State, 25. Baylor, 41. West Virginia, 44. TCU, 51. Oklahoma State

Also Considered: UCF, Cincinnati, Arizona State

Biggest Development: Iowa State upended by Memphis

It was a rocky first 48 hours for the Big 12.

Despite 38 points from Ivan Kharchenkov, preseason No. 1 seed Arizona lost an old Pac-12 rivalry game with UCLA. Kansas State cemented itself as the likely worst team in the conference with an immediate home loss to South Dakota State. And though UCF (vs. Florida Gulf Coast) and Utah (vs. Long Beach State) ultimately prevailed, they both threatened to suffer what would have been brutal losses.

BYU did score a statement win over Ohio State behind 35 points from Rob Wright III. But perhaps the most impactful result was Iowa State (preseason KenPom No. 6) losing to Memphis (preseason KenPom No. 86) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

It was a tight one throughout, played entirely within a 12-point window and tied at 69-69 with a little over three minutes to go. That's when Tigers lead guard Jayden Reid took over, single-handedly outscoring the Cyclones 11-7 down the stretch on his way to 26 points.

One major asterisk is that Iowa State didn't have Killyan Toure, but that's going to be the case for the first half of the season as he works his way back from shoulder surgery.

The Cyclones did have Tamin Lipsey available, though, after his summer with the Indiana Pacers. But even that fifth-year point guard was no answer for Reid.

Iowa State was a No. 3 seed in our preseason projection, but they take an early tumble to the No. 6 seed line. We shall see if they can bounce back with a strong run through the Players Era 16 during Feast Week.

Big East Summary

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6 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 16. St. John's, 28. Marquette, 39. Villanova, 47. Creighton, 52. Xavier

Also Considered: Providence, Georgetown, DePaul

Biggest Development: UConn returns to the No. 1 seed line

The final score (85-77) doesn't scream "beat down," but Connecticut put a hurtin' on reigning national champion Michigan on Friday night in Boston.

Top returnees Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. went for 23 and 21 points, respectively, while freshman phenom Colben Landrew pitched in 14 points and eight rebounds. That backcourt trio is going to be one of the best in the country.

And it sounds like the trio might be a quartet sooner than expected? CBS Sports' Matt Norlander casually mentioned after the win that Solo Ball (wrist) looked good in warmups and could be back in action "in the next month or so." Considering we entered the season unsure if Ball would be able to play at all, that's quite the early development.

Regardless of whether Ball does return before the start of Big East play, the Huskies have a preposterously difficult row to hoe, facing Ohio State (Nov. 13), Arizona (Nov. 18), Duke (Nov. 25), Illinois (Dec. 4), Kansas (Dec. 12) and Virginia (Dec. 20) between now and Christmas.

It's the toughest nonconference schedule in the country, but they've started it out with a bang.

Someone had to replace Arizona on the No. 1 seed line, and it is now Connecticut's spot to lose.

Big Ten Summary

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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Illinois, 6. Michigan State, 15. UCLA, 18. Nebraska, 26. Michigan, 31. USC, 32. Indiana, 34. Ohio State, 35. Iowa, 37. Minnesota, 38. Wisconsin

Also Considered: Oregon, Purdue

Biggest Development: Purdue's Tournament Streak in Early Jeopardy

Though a far cry from Kansas, Michigan State and Gonzaga with at least 27 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances apiece, Purdue has the fourth-longest active dancing streak, partaking in each of the last 11 tournaments.

Can the Boilermakers bounce back from a disastrous start to this season, though?

The opener against Gonzaga in Las Vegas was always likely to result in a loss, considering the Zags were ranked No. 15 in the preseason poll while Purdue is adjusting to life after Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. And though it was a competitive game, Purdue did start out 0-1 for the first time since 2012-13.

What definitely was not supposed to be a loss, however, was the subsequent home game against Valparaiso. But after the Beacons hit buzzer-beating three-pointers to both extend the game at the end of the first overtime and win the game at the end of the second overtime, Purdue fell to 0-2 for the first time since 1976-77.

On the plus side, that squad 50 years ago recovered to finish 19–9 and reach a 32-team NCAA tournament. Maybe this year's bunch can turn things around to secure one of the 76 spots up for grabs.

But Purdue is in previously uncharted waters under Matt Painter.

SEC Summary

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13 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Florida, 11. Texas, 13. Alabama, 14. Tennessee, 17. Vanderbilt, 22. Kentucky, 24. Auburn, 27. Texas A&M, 30. Arkansas, 36. Georgia, 42. LSU, 43. Ole Miss, 45. Missouri

Also Considered: Mississippi State

Biggest Development: Oklahoma Lost to Whom?!

For the most part, things are proceeding as expected for the SEC.

The league entered the season projected for 13 bids, and that still appears to be the case. They've already made some strong early impressions at the expense of the ACC, with Florida beating Miami and Vanderbilt trouncing Wake Forest—though Virginia leveled the scales a bit with its pulverization of Arkansas.

But amid what has otherwise been a strong start, Oklahoma already suffered what might be the worst loss of the entire season.

Hosting preseason KenPom No. 299 East Texas A&M, the Sooners were projected to win 90-62, given a 99 percent chance of victory. Instead, they completely no-showed on offense for a 68-64 loss.

At least a few times per month, we'll see a team lose when KenPom has its victory probability in the 90-97 percent range.

But 99 percent is virtually unheard of.

Even Virginia was only at 97 percent for its loss to UMBC in 2018, while Purdue was at 98 percent when it lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023.

I clicked day-by-day through the past three seasons on KenPom and only found one other case of a team losing in spite of a win probability of at least 99 percent. Coincidentally, it was also a disastrous SEC result, when Mississippi State lost to Southern on Dec. 3, 2023.

Notably, that flub didn't end the Bulldogs' season. They still made the Dance as a No. 8 seed, thanks to a few marquee wins in league play. Perhaps Oklahoma, too, can recover from this early embarrassment.

However, after entering the year as a No. 9 seed, the Sooners will have to play their way back into the conversation with a strong run through the rest of what isn't a great nonconference schedule.

Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, P12, WCC)

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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 9. Gonzaga, 29. Saint Louis, 40. Memphis, 46. Grand Canyon, 49. Utah State, 50. VCU, 54. Saint Mary's, 57. Murray State

Also Considered: Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State

Biggest Development: Memphis Is a Problem Again

Memphis had a brutal season last year, going 13-19 overall. It was the Tigers' first losing record since going 15-16 in 1999-2000 and their worst winning percentage since going 6-20 in 1969-70.

But after months of Penny Hardaway sitting prominently on any "hot seat rankings" type of list, Memphis stuck with him for at least one more year, and the early returns have been fantastic.

In the Big 12 section, we discussed the Tigers' win over Iowa State, in which Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid led the way with 26 points.

He was even bigger in the 89-88 victory over VCU on Saturday, though. Reid finished with 32 points, seven assists and three steals. He hit a massive game-tying three-pointer with a little over a minute remaining and followed it up with the game-tying and game-winning free throws with 5.7 seconds left on the clock.

He scored their final 11 points against the Cyclones and had 12 of their final 17 points against the Rams.

That's two big wins, but their journey has only just begun.

Memphis plays at Vanderbilt on Tuesday and hosts Louisville on Sunday for two more massive opportunities before our next projection. The Tigers will also play road games at Baylor and Texas, face Grand Canyon and Utah State, and play neutral-site games against Dayton, Penn State and either Wake Forest or Mississippi State.

That's nothing new, of course. They've been scheduling aggressively for six years now, and faring well against that gauntlet two seasons ago is what got them a No. 5 seed in the Dance. They might be gearing up to do it again.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 55. High Point, 56. UC San Diego, 58. Akron, 59. McNeese, 60. UNC Wilmington, 61. Wright State, 62. Western Kentucky, 63. Furman, 64. Montana State, 65. Yale, 66. Central Arkansas, 67. Old Dominion, 68. Vermont, 69. Howard, 70. Queens, 71. South Dakota State, 72. American, 73. Bethune-Cookman, 74. Iona, 75. Tennessee State, 76. Long Island

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Development: Wright State's Hottest Start Ever?

The Wright State Raiders won their season opener against Air Force in blowout fashion, 102-71. Dominic Pangonis almost could not miss en route to his 30 points, needing just 10 field-goal attempts and seven free-throw attempts to get there.

They followed it up with a similarly sized 97-71 beatdown of Florida Atlantic on Friday. The starting five shot a combined 24-for-30 (80.0 percent) from inside the arc in a game that was over in a hurry.

Neither result was much of a needle-mover. The home win over AFA will certainly be a Quad 4 result when NET rankings come out. The home win over FAU figures to land somewhere near the border between Quad 3 and Quad 4.

But after two games against D-I competition, Wright State is 2-0 with a plus-57 point differential—which is the furthest thing from par for the course.

In their previous 39 seasons as a D-I program, they started out 0-2 against D-I foes twice as many times (14) as they started 2-0 (seven). And prior to this, Wright State never had a point differential north of 30 through two games.

Could this be a breakthrough year for a team that, as a No. 14 seed, gave Virginia a run for its money in the first round of the 2026 NCAA tournament?

The Raiders certainly look like the cream of the Horizon League crop thus far.