Ranking the 10 Biggest NFL Draft Mistakes of the Past Decade

J.J. McCarthy's short-lived tenure with the Minnesota Vikings is officially over. Two years after the Vikings traded up to acquire him, they shipped the third-year signal-caller to the New York Giants for a fifth-round pick.

The fact that McCarthy was behind Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz on the Vikings' depth chart was the writing on the wall. But the Vikings trading him to the Giants for a middling Day 3 pick cemented his status as a historic draft mistake.

Was he the biggest gaffe of the past decade? That's what we're here to sort out.

It's especially damaging when teams whiff on top-10 picks, but that's not the only reason why McCarthy is a massive draft mistake. He played poorly, didn't earn a second contract with the Vikings, and great players were selected soon after him.

Luckily for the Vikings, he's hardly the only player who fits that mold over the past decade.

Although every player drafted since 2017 was eligible for these rankings, no one from the last two drafts made the cut because the sample size is still too small.

10. Cardinals Take Isaiah Simmons

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Drafted: No. 8 overall, 2020

We begin with the Arizona Cardinals, who had two players in consideration for this spot in Simmons and 2018 No. 10 overall pick Josh Rosen. Simmons earned the nod for being a slightly higher pick and getting less draft capital back in his eventual trade.

Simmons played three seasons with the Cardinals before being dealt for a seventh-round pick.

No player drafted immediately after Simmons emerged as a surefire Pro Bowler either, but the Cardinals could have gone with Tristan Wirfs (No. 13), CeeDee Lamb (No. 17) or Justin Jefferson (No. 22) at that same spot.

9. Colts Draft Anthony Richardson

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Drafted: No. 4 overall, 2023

Anthony Richardson showed tantalizing traits during his college career at Florida, albeit across only 13 starts. His career completion percentage was 54.7 percent, but hey, Josh Allen's was just 56.2 in college, and look how that worked out for the Buffalo Bills.

So, the Colts gambled that they could fix Richardson's accuracy issues in the NFL. However, it quickly became clear that they made a mistake when he completed only 47.7 percent of his pass attempts across 11 starts in his second season.

Richardson is still on the Colts, who would presumably trade him for a late-round pick if another team offered them one.

There wasn't a quarterback on the board whom the Colts should have taken instead, but they did pass on star cornerback Devon Witherspoon (No. 5 pick), running back Bijan Robinson (No. 8 pick) and defensive tackle Jalen Carter (No. 9 pick) for Richardson.

8. Lions Draft Jeff Okudah

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Drafted: No. 3 overall, 2020

Taking a cornerback in the top five of the draft is usually reserved for generational prospects. Among the success stories are Deion Sanders (1989), Charles Woodson (1998), Patrick Peterson (2011) and Jalen Ramsey (2016).

Okudah had a great college career at Ohio State, but he was never considered the type of athlete that those four were. The Lions took him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft anyway.

Three years later, they essentially admitted they made a mistake by trading him for a fifth-round pick before his fourth season began.

Okudah doesn't rank higher than this because no generational prospects came off the board within the next few picks. The closest is defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who was taken seventh overall.

7. Raiders Take Tyree Wilson

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Drafted: No. 7 overall, 2023

This one hurts more than a typical top-10 bust. Most analysts considered Jalen Carter a better defensive lineman prospect than Tyree Wilson, but the Raiders passed on Carter to take Wilson.

It's understandable why Carter might have been "crossed off" their draft board, but now it's easy to say they made the wrong pick.

The Raiders traded Wilson and a seventh-round pick for a fifth-round pick before his fourth season. Meanwhile, Carter is a two-time Pro Bowler.

If the Raiders wanted to go in a different direction, they could've selected running backs Bijan Robinson (No. 8 pick) or Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 pick), cornerback Christian Gonzalez (No. 17 pick) or wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (No. 20 pick).

6. Giants Take Evan Neal

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Drafted: No. 7 overall, 2022

Evan Neal was a disappointment in his four seasons with the New York Giants. They eventually released the offensive tackle during the 53-man roster cutdown ahead of the 2026 regular season.

The Giants used a 2026 first-round pick on tackle Francis Mauigoa, which gave Neal no shot at earning a starting role.

The Seattle Seahawks landed eventual Super Bowl-winning tackle Charles Cross two picks after the Giants took Neal, but that's not what makes this selection especially painful. It's that the next seven picks were all somewhere between good and excellent.

No. 8: WR Drake London
No. 9: OT Charles Cross
No. 10: WR Garrett Wilson
No. 11: WR Chris Olave
No. 12: WR Jameson Williams
No. 13: DT Jordan Davis
No. 14: S Kyle Hamilton

Ouch.

5. Jets Take Zach Wilson

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Drafted: No. 2 overall, 2021

After giving up on Sam Darnold (more on him later), the New York Jets were in the market for another quarterback heading into the 2021 draft. Everyone expected them to take whichever of Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson fell to them at No. 2.

That's exactly what they did. They passed on Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones to stand pat and take Wilson at No. 2.

As it turns out, all four QBs didn't pan out. So in that sense, it's hard to fault the Jets too much.

What the Jets needed to do was pivot to a player at any other position. Here are the non-QBs taken right after Wilson:

No. 4: TE Kyle Pitts
No. 5: WR Ja'Marr Chase
No. 6: WR Jaylen Waddle
No. 7: OT Penei Sewell
No. 8: CB Jaycee Horn
No. 9: CB Patrick Surtain II
No. 10: WR DeVonta Smith
No. 12: OLB Micah Parsons
No. 13: OT Rashawn Slater

At least they have... *checks notes*... Geno Smith back now?

4. Vikings Take J.J. McCarthy

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Drafted: 10th overall, 2024 (after not-too-costly trade-up with Jets)

J.J. McCarthy lands at No. 4 in these rankings for two reasons.

First, the Minnesota Vikings passed on quarterback Bo Nix (No. 12 pick) as well as tight end Brock Bowers (No. 13 pick). It wasn't like McCarthy was a can't-miss prospect at Michigan, so it's fair to question why they didn't either a) go with the more experienced Nix or b) solve their quarterback problem a different way and take the generational tight end in Bowers.

Second, the Vikings are actually built perfectly for a QB to thrive with offensive mastermind Kevin O'Connell and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. This mistake has nothing to do with McCarthy's supporting cast.

In fact, Kirk Cousins went 13-4 and posted huge numbers in 2022 under this Minnesota regime, and Sam Darnold went 14-3 and posted huge numbers in 2024 while McCarthy was injured.

If the Vikings can hit on a quarterback in the draft, they should be a perennial Super Bowl contender. Their best shot at one was this pick, and they missed.

3. Bears Trade Up for Mitchell Trubisky

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Drafted: No. 2 overall, 2017

The Bears moved up from the third overall pick to the second overall pick by trading two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder to take Trubisky.

In four seasons in the Windy City, Trubisky wasn't awful. He even made one Pro Bowl and guided the Bears to two postseason appearances. But it's telling that Chicago let him walk in 2021 free agency before drafting Justin Fields.

Of course, we're burying the lead here. Trubisky ranks this high because the next quarterback taken in the 2017 draft was Patrick Mahomes at No. 10 overall.

In theory, every team that had a chance at Mahomes could be featured here. But the Bears deserve the most criticism for choosing a different quarterback over him.

2. Jets Trade Up for Sam Darnold

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Drafted: No. 3 overall, 2018

The Jets paid a steep price to move up from No. 6 to No. 3 a month before the 2018 draft, giving up three second-round picks. It all ended up being up for a quarterback who didn't make it to a fourth season in New York.

Though the Jets got a second-round pick when they traded Darnold to the Carolina Panthers in 2021, it didn't make the wound feel much better.

What makes this mistake even more painful is that the Buffalo Bills took Josh Allen with the No. 7 pick of the 2018 draft.

Imagine how different the AFC East would have looked over the past decade had the Jets taken Allen instead of Darnold.

1. 49ers Trade Up for Trey Lance

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Drafted: No. 3 overall, 2021

This was the clear-cut answer for the No. 1 spot in these rankings. It has as much to do with the San Francisco 49ers' process as the pick itself.

The Niners wanted to move up from the 12th pick to take a quarterback, but they weren't sure which one they wanted. Despite not knowing, they gave up first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and a 2022 third-round pick to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 a month before the draft.

The player whom they reportedly originally wanted, Mac Jones, ended up being available at No. 12. But at some point, head coach Kyle Shanahan decided he wanted Trey Lance instead of Jones.

Lance had been getting first-round hype, but it's possible he would've been available at No. 12 as well. After all, he started only one season at North Dakota State and had plenty of questions about the caliber of competition he faced in college.

Lance started just four games in his two years with the Niners before they traded him to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick.

A whiff like that can lead to the firing of a head coach and GM, but Shanahan and John Lynch avoided the hot seat by drafting Brock Purdy with the last pick of 2022 draft. He went from Mr. Irrelevant to an MVP candidate.

Still, you have to wonder whether the 49ers would have won a Super Bowl in the last few years had they stayed put in the 2021 draft. They could have used those first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to address their weaknesses.