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In Week 10, NFL bettors will have to weigh unknown factors in a few games. Three quarterbacks are slated to make their first career starts on Sunday. How will Fernando Mendoza, Carson Beck and Kyle McCord impact the complexion of their games?
Analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, weighed the variables and mostly sided with experience. Yet a few of our experts made a case for the new faces at quarterback to help their teams at least cover the spread this weekend.
Before we get into the breakdowns for the 14-game slate, check out the standings against the spread below.
ATS Standingsย
1. Moton: 74-60-2
T-2. Hanford: 64-70-2
T-2. Knox: 64-70-2
4. Davenport: 61-73-2
T-5. Gagnon: 59-75-2
T-5. Sobleski: 59-75-2
7. O'Donnell: 58-76-2
Lone Wolf Picks: 15-13
Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Nov. 11, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
WAS vs. NYG | NE vs. DET | MIN vs. GB | HOU vs. CLE | KC vs. ATL | MIA vs. IND | JAX vs. TEN | CAR vs. NO | BUF vs. NYJ | LAR vs. ARI | SEA vs. LV | SF vs. DAL | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. BAL
Washington Commanders (2-5-1) at New York Giants (5-2-1)
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Knox: Commanders (+1.5) ย
These teams tied the last time they faced one another, though the rematch will look a little different. New York will have home-field advantage in this one, and it will have J.J. McCarthy in at quarterback instead of Jameis Winston.
McCarthy has mostly played well since joining the Giants, and he and Cam Skattebo both appear to be healthy enough to go this week. On the other side of the ball, rookie Arvell Reese has become a legitimate game-wrecker. I totally understand why most of the panel is backing New York here.
However, I also get the feeling that we could see McCarthy stumble on a short week and against a defense that can largely corral the run. If the Commanders can contain Reese, they can steal one on the road.
O'Donnell: Giants (-1.5)ย
This game will ultimately define the Giants. The last time a matchup like this came up on the scheduleโhome vs. the Saints in Week 6โthey lost. This is a game they need to win to justify their NFC East lead and prove they're better than just wading through the NFL's weakest schedule to date.
Should they lose, they'll probably wind up losing the division. Former Giants coach Bill Parcells used to say, "You are what your record says you are," and at this point in the season, the Giants either prove they're for real (at least in a division-leading sense) or we buckle up for a brutal second half of the season.ย ย
Predictions
Commanders: Knox
Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Moton, Sobleski
New England Patriots (5-4) vs. Detroit Lions (6-2)
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Gagnon: Patriots (+2.5)ย
I'd buy up to a full field goal if you can, but this will be a very tight game at a neutral site.
Detroit's defense has certainly improved, but a still-vulnerable unit is due for a blip. New England leads the AFC with 41 20-plus-yard plays (33 passing and eight rushing), while the Lions have given up an NFL-high 40 (34 passing and six rushing).
This feels like a correction game for a Pats team that hasn't lostย back-to-back games since December 2024.ย
Moton: Lions (-2.5)
After watching Jordan Love throw for 372 yards and three touchdowns on the road against the New England Patriots, you have to wonder what the Detroit Lions' eighth-ranked passing attack can do offensively in Munich, Germany.ย
Coming off two modest outings against the Vikings' second-ranked pass defense and the Miami Dolphins in humidity, Jared Goff is due for a strong performance in a favorable matchup.ย
The Patriots have allowed multiple touchdown passes in three straight games, and they lack the offensive firepower to keep pace with high-scoring opponents, even if star wideout A.J. Brown plays at less than 100 percent with a knee injury. Goff will heavily target Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has dual citizenship in both the United States and Germany, allowing him to shine in a game thatย means a lot to him.
Predictions
Patriots: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)
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Davenport: Packers (-3)ย
This spread appears to indicate that Vegas views these teams as relative equals. They aren'tโat least not right now.
Minnesota's ultra-aggressive defense could be a problem, especially for a Packers team that can't run the ball. But the Vikings offense remains a liability until we see differently, and Green Bay's defense is better than most realize.
Throw in Jordan Love shredding secondaries of late, and Green Bay covers at Lambeau.ย
Knox: Vikings (+3)
The Packers' passing attack is white-hot, and Jordan Love probably isn't getting enough attention as an MVP candidate.
However, I think Minnesota is primed to cool things off in a hurry. The Vikings have the best defense in the league right now, and I don't think it's particularly close.
Had Minnesota had any semblance of a competent offense on Monday night, it probably would have knocked off Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
The addition of Kirk Cousins should instantly give the Vikings the most functional offense they've had all season. He won't have a lot of time to prepare for this matchup, but he knows the offense and knows how to get Justin Jefferson involved.
I expect Cousins to start, and I expect to hear a lot of talk about how the Vikings "stole" him at the trade deadline.
Predictions
Vikings: Knox, Moton
Packers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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Houston Texans (3-5) at Cleveland Browns (5-4)
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Hanford: Browns (+4.5)
I'm the only one riding the Browns to cover here. It's easy to see Deshaun Watson getting sacked 10 times against a Texans defense leading the league in sacks, but the Browns are 3-0 at home this season for a reason. Cleveland is a difficult place to play.
The Texans probably see this as a revenge game as much as Watson does, but I think the Browns are able to muddy this one up for C.J. Stroud just enough to stay in the game, like we've seen them do multiple times this season.
Sobleski: Texans (-4.5)ย
The Browns defense should be able to slow Stroud and the Houston Texans offense, but it won't be enough when Cleveland fields an anemic offense that ranks among the bottom four in scoring.
It doesn't matter which quarterback is starting for the Browns, because the Texans defense should make their life miserable, even if that unit has been somewhat of a disappointment this season. ย
Predictions
Texans: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Browns: Hanford
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
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Gagnon: Falcons (+3.5)ย
There are some tempting hooks on home underdogs this week, and this is a good example. All things considered, the Chiefs are not playing great football. They're also just 2-2 with a negative scoring margin away from Arrowhead.
The Kansas City pass rush woke up last week, but that unit has struggled overall and runs into one of the league's top pass-protection units here.
I think this game will be decided by a field goal. ย
Sobleski: Chiefs (-3.5)
The Chiefs and Falcons made two of the most interesting deals prior to Tuesday's trade deadline for entirely opposite reasons. Atlanta traded safety Jessie Bates III to the Jacksonville Jaguars even though he was the team's best defensive player.
Conversely, the Chiefs added Josh Downs, who is one of the league's best slot receivers. Bates' absence in the Falcons' secondary coupled with Downs' potential impact for a Kansas City offense that has failed to create explosive plays shows the difference in the teams' philosophies and which squad should be considered a more serious threat. ย
Predictions
Chiefs: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Falcons: Gagnon
Miami Dolphins (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (2-7)
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Davenport: Dolphins (+2.5)
Neither offense inspires much confidence heading into this matchup. Miami will give Kyle McCord his first career start, while Indianapolis has limited options at wide receiver. Even with that uncertainty at quarterback for the Dolphins, I expect a close game. I'll take Miami and the points.
Sobleski: Colts (-2.5)ย
This matchup would have been the perfect time for some of the Dolphins' young players to experience a breakout game. Unfortunately, starting quarterback Malik Willis is now on injured reserve, and second-year signal-caller Kyle McCord will make his first career start.
The Colts didn't trade everyone, and plenty of talent can still be found in the Indianapolis secondary to confuse a first-time starter. Plus, Jonathan Taylor remains a Colt, so the Indianapolis offense can still feature a strong run game. ย
Predictions
Dolphins: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford
Colts: Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-7)
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Gagnon: Titans (+9.5)ย
It's not easy to back a team that just held a fire sale against a team that just completed a shopping spree, but a line in this range reflects that. Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare, and the Titans have lost by more than seven points just once since Week 2. The Jags still win this game, but I do expect some growing pains as the new personnel settles in. ย
O'Donnell: Jaguars (-9.5)ย
I am worried about a backdoor cover, but the Jaguars enter this divisional matchup on the heels of officially going "all-in" courtesy of big, splashy trade deadline moves. This team wants to make a statement on both sides of the ball. Expect Liam Coen's offense to roar from the opening kickoff and let the defense feast on a bad Titans offense as they genuinely put the league on notice.ย ย
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Titans: Gagnon
Carolina Panthers (3-5) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)
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Knox: Saints (+1.5)ย
Granted, New Orleans' latest victory came against a very inconsistent Browns team and easily could have been a lossโthe outcome ultimately hinged on an overtime two-point play. However, I thought the Saints looked like a much more complete team coming out of the bye than they were heading into it.
New Orleans' pass rush was legitimately good against Cleveland, and it should be a problem for a Panthers O-line that's been about as sturdy as a jack-o'-lantern in mid-November. Audric Estimรฉ provided some punch to the ground game, and Jordyn Tyson gave Tyler Shough another weapon.
I do have concerns about the Saints' ability to contain Chuba Hubbard and Carolina's rushing attack, but I still think we'll see the Panthers' losing streak extended to four games.
Moton: Panthers (-1.5)
Although the Carolina Panthers are on the road, it's a good bounce-back spot for a team on a three-game losing streak. The Panthers can get back to pounding the ball on the ground against the New Orleans Saints' 29th-ranked run defense. In doing so, they can avoid turnovers after giving the ball away eight times over the last three weeks and control this game.
Predictions
Panthers: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Saints: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills (7-1) at New York Jets (2-7)
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Davenport: Bills (-7.5)ย
After a big win in Minnesota, there's reason to worry about a letdown in another road game for a Bills team that has been inconsistent defensively this season. But Buffalo has an offense that can put up 30 against anyone, while the Jets look scrappy offensively one week and inept the next.
It's the same old Jets, but these Bills just might be different.
Gagnon: Jets (+7.5)ย
This is yet another tricky hook with an away team, and in this case the banged-up Bills are on short rest against an opponent that is quite familiar with them. The Jets may be 2-7, but they haven't been outscored by more than a handful of points in any of their four home games. I think they'll hang here against a tired opponent.ย
Predictions
Bills: Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Davenport
Jets: Gagnon, Knox, Sobleski
Los Angeles Rams (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
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Hanford: Rams (-7.5)
It's unlikely the Rams forget that the Cardinals upset them earlier this season. That doesn't bode well for a team that is winless at home and will start rookie QB Carson Beck, who is making his NFL debut.
The Rams have issues of their own with Puka Nacua set to miss extended time, but the Rams' defense will make life difficult for Beck in his first start, while Sean McVay leans on his run game against a defense that has struggled to stop the run all season.
Moton: Rams (-7.5)
Both teams will be missing key players, but the Rams still have quarterback Matthew Stafford and, arguably, the NFL's best running back duo in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Stafford won't throw for a ton of yards, but Williams and Corum could rush for 200-plus combined against a defense that's allowed 120-plus yards in five out of nine contests.
Meanwhile, rookie third-rounder Carson Beck will make his first career start. He's a third-string quarterback with little around him aside from All-Pro tight end Trey McBride.ย
Rams bracket McBride in coverage and physically wear down Arizona's defensive front to avenge their shocking Week 6 home loss to the Cardinals.
Predictions
Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
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Hanford: Raiders (+6.5)
I'm the only one backing the Raiders in Fernando Mendoza's first career start, and I'm OK with that. The Raiders defense has been leaking points, but with Drew Lock in line to start again for the Seahawks, I'm not banking on Seattle hanging 30 this week.
The Vegas home crowd will be energized to see their No. 1 pick take the field, and I believe in Mendoza's ability to answer the call. Look for the rookie to keep this game close. Seattle wins a must-win game for its playoff hopes, but the Indiana product reminds everyone he was worth the wait.
Moton: Seahawks (-6.5)
Las Vegas pulled off a blockbuster trade deadline move, sending Kirk Cousins to the Minnesota Vikings, which means No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is slated to make his first career start. Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak will compete against the team he helped lead to a Super Bowl victory last season.
Despite the familiarity with some of the Seahawks players, Kubiak is working with an inexperienced starting quarterback against an elite-level defense, and his team has tied an NFL record for allowing 30-plus points in six straight games.
Raiders take a step back in a loss by more than a touchdown before they start to see Mendoza make strides.
Predictions
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Raiders: Hanford
San Francisco 49ers (7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
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Sobleski: Cowboys (+4.5)ย
While no one outside of the Cowboys should have any confidence whatsoever that the Dallas defense can slow the 49ers offense, an opposite viewpoint can be taken when Dak Prescott and his offense are on the field.
The Cowboys have scored 27 or more points in three straight games. They'll be able to move the ball, even against the Niners' talented defense, which could turn this game into a shootout and potentially keep it close.
O'Donnell: 49ers (-4.5)ย
This classic rivalry is always good for a surprise. The Cowboys keep disappointing while the 49ers keep persisting despite never seeming fully healthy, and I heavily debated taking the points because this feels like a trap.
I'm going to ignore that and believe that the Niners are the NFL's best team and that Dallas cannot get out of its own way.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Cowboys: Moton, Sobleski
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
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Hanford: Steelers (+3.5)
Joe Burrow is the NFL MVP as of today, but the Bengals won't coast to a win here (if they win at all). The Steelers come into this one off their bye and rested, while the Bengals played in Spain last week. Being at home will help, but I don't expect that to do a Bengals defense that's struggled mightily this season any favors.
I expect a heavy dose of Jaylen Warren in this one, and I think the Bengals struggle to get consistent stops. This feels like a game that turns into a shootout, but three of these teams' last four meetings have been decided by a field goal or less and this one won't be any different.ย
Knox: Bengals (-3.5)
Cincinnati's offense seemingly flipped a switch during the bye week, and I'm not sure there's a better unit in the league right now. The Bengals lack the balance that comes with a quality ground game, but Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins have looked borderline unstoppable.
The Steelers can limit the Bengals by attacking an offensive line that still isn't good enough. However, I don't think they can shut down Cincinnati for a full four quarters.
Pittsburgh's best bet will be to lean on the run and keep Cincinnati's offense off the field entirely. It's a strategy that could be successful, as the Bengals have struggled badly against the run. I just don't think it'll be enough to counter Cincy's offense and a hyped-up home crowd on Sunday night.ย
Predictions
Steelers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Bengals: Knox, Sobleski
Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
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Davenport: Ravens (-5.5)
This is where we are with the Chargers this seasonโI'm laying a sizable number with a Ravens team starting Jacoby Brissett, who has been with Baltimore all of a week.
The Bolts went 34 drives without scoring a touchdown before finally ending the drought in garbage time of last week's blowout loss. That defeat dropped them to 0-8, and a battered Justin Herbert was sacked eight times.
This is a broken team fixing to get blown out by a desperate one.
O'Donnell: Chargers (+5.5)ย
I'm not asking for the Chargers to win here. When you watch Justin Herbert and find yourself painfully squinting to discern whether it's really him in that helmet, it's evident that this team is trying so hard to figure things out that they aren't even one of those terrible teams that can luck into a win or surprisingly play better football than expected.
The Chargers are, simply, discombobulated. So, there's no better time to take the points than a road tilt on Monday Night Football against a Baltimore team that is 2-7 ATS this season and 0-4 ATS in home games.
Predictions
Chargers: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Ravens: Davenport, Knox, Moton
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