Making the Case for NFL Stars to Be No. 1 Pick in Fantasy Football Drafts

Drawing the No. 1 overall pick in a fantasy draft can be both a blessing and a curse.

While the manager who holds that selection is guaranteed to secure one of the small handful of blue-chip fantasy superstars up for grabs, they also face immense pressure to nail the selection.

Whiffing on the No. 1 pick can be devastating to a fantasy team. In the standard snake format that most redraft leagues utilize, the manager picking at the very top of the order has to wait until the end of Round 2 before making their next selection. The drop-off in production from the No. 1 candidates to those available in the Nos. 20-30 range (depending on league size) can be significant.

Unfortunately for managers in 2026, there isn't a glaringly obvious candidate to take atop their draft.

There are several viable choices, however, and each can make a legitimate case to be picked No. 1. With that in mind, let's highlight five of the best options, review their production from last season and then state an argument for them to become the first pick in 2026 fantasy football drafts.

Stats, rankings, average draft position and other fantasy metrics courtesy of FantasyPros using PPR data.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

2025 Stats: 416.6 points (24.5 per game)

2025 Finish: No. 1 Overall (RB1)

2026 Rank: No. 7 Overall (RB3)

2026 ADP: No. 6

Despite pacing the field by a wide margin in 2025 fantasy points, Christian McCaffrey isn't going No. 1 overall in most fantasy drafts. He's not even coming off the board within the first five picks in many leagues, showing just how fearful managers are that the San Francisco 49ers star will suffer another major injury.

Because the four-time Pro Bowler logged a personal-high of 413 touches in 2025, it seems almost inevitable that some sort of ailment will crop up. While there is a concerning history—McCaffrey missed significant time in the two subsequent seasons that followed league-leading touch counts—it's also far from guaranteed that the 30-year-old will miss multiple contests.

McCaffrey played in all 17 games last year and in 2023 only missed a meaningless regular season finale. The 49ers have also indicated that they plan to reduce McCaffrey's workload in an effort to keep him healthy.

Back in March, head coach Kyle Shanahan stated, "In order for us to be the running team we want to be, in order to have Christian be as good as he can be throughout the whole year, we've got to get someone to help him."

San Francisco drafted Kaelon Black in the third round of this year's draft and has a pair of incumbents in Jordan James and Isaac Guerendo ready to compete for snaps. Regardless of how this pecking order ultimately materializes, McCaffrey will remain the lead option even with his playing time set to trend downward.

A more platoon-oriented approach might hinder McCaffrey's chances of repeating as the No. 1 scorer, but it also greatly boosts his chances of stringing together a pair of healthy seasons for just the second since 2018-19.

If McCaffrey can stay healthy and well-rested, the sky remains the limit for one of the all-time fantasy football greats. He's still as dangerous as anyone in the league with the ball in his hands and Shanahan will find ways to get him in space. If McCaffrey can play in at least 15 games this year, he's close to a lock for a top-five finish and has a real shot at becoming the first back-to-back No. 1 fantasy scorer since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006-07.

WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

2025 Stats: 375 points (23.4 per game)

2025 Finish: No. 2 Overall (WR1)

2026 Rank: No. 3 Overall (WR2)

2026 ADP: No. 4

Puka Nacua firmly established himself as one of the league's truly elite talents last year. Despite suffering an ankle injury that led to him missing a game and limiting him in at least one other contest, the Los Angeles Rams wideout still finished as fantasy's top-scoring wideout and No. 2 overall player.

Nacua has become a force to be reckoned with in head coach Sean McVay's explosive system. The receiver's uncanny ability to create separation and an easy chemistry with quarterback Matthew Stafford became the beating heart of a relentless L.A. offense that ranked No. 1 in total offense, passing offense and scoring in 2025. Nacua's contributions were the most important factor in Stafford finally breaking through and winning his first career NFL MVP award at the age of 38.

While the Rams were lauded for their success with jumbo packages and 13 personnel during their 12-win campaign and subsequent NFC Championship Game run, Nacua was still the focal point in every game he suited up for. He even added new layers to his game, including becoming a prolific touchdown scorer in 2026.

Nacua hadn't been putting up big scoring numbers during his first two NFL seasons before coming down with a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns in 2025. The 25-year-old managed this despite teammate Davante Adams reeling in a league-high 14 scores through the air—a testament to Stafford's ability to keep two high-volume receivers fed.

Nacua offers an unmatched blend of target volume, yardage after the catch and scoring, so it wouldn't be a stretch to take L.A.'s bright young star at No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts. He's a matchup-proof weapon who checks every box a manager could want from a receiver and he should only get better in 2026.

WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/David Dermer

2025 Stats: 313.6 points (19.6 per game)

2025 Finish: No. 17 Overall (WR4)

2026 Rank: No. 1 Overall (WR1)

2026 ADP: No. 3

Ja'Marr Chase was as close to a consensus No. 1 overall pick as you could find in 2025. The Cincinnati Bengals wideout remains in the hunt for that distinction again this season, even after letting his managers down last year with a finish outside the top-15.

Chase's 2025 production was diminished by a slow start, with inconsistent play and a Joe Burrow injury limiting the wideout to three WR43 or worse finishes during the first month. The superstar eventually turned a corner, especially after establishing a quick rapport with Joe Flacco following the veteran signal-caller's trade to Cincinnati.

Chase went on to finish as the WR4, a rather stunning showing given the abysmal start. Managers who held onto the receiver—or had the foresight to buy low in trades—were rewarded with the third-best per-game production of any player over the last 14 weeks of the campaign.  

As long as Burrow can stay healthy, there is no fantasy wideout with more upside out there. Health hasn't been a guarantee for Burrow in recent years, but the Cincinnati QB at least revealed that he's "in a really good place" and "the best I've felt in a long time" during OTAs.

Little else needs to be said about the Burrow-Chase battery. It has the highest ceiling of any in the NFL, with the pairing creating an eye-popping 5,758 receiving yards and 49 touchdowns across the 63 games they've both appeared in together. Their connection will be as imperative as ever to Cincinnati's success, with the team largely running back the same offense in 2026.

Injuries could muck things up for fantasy managers, but that isn't a reason to avoid Chase this year—even at No. 1 overall. If you aren't confident in the running back choices and want to swing for the fences with a wideout who has 400-plus point potential, look no further than Chase.

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Meagan Leverone

2025 Stats: 370.8 points (21.8 per game)

2025 Finish: No. 4 Overall (RB2)

2026 Rank: No. 2 Overall (RB1)

2026 ADP: No. 2

Bijan Robinson emerged as the NFL's top up-and-coming running back last season, putting together a massive year that helped many fantasy managers win their leagues.

Although his 370.8-point campaign wasn't enough to overtake Christian McCaffrey as the top scorer, Robinson's performance highlighted his incredible talents and has him in position to become the league's No. 1 back in 2026.

Robinson tallied nearly 2,300 yards from scrimmage and scored 11 touchdowns in 2025, marking the second consecutive year in which he finished in the top-10 of all fantasy scorers.

While he couldn't match his career-best of 15 total touchdowns, the Atlanta Falcons' lead back generated over 400 more yards than he did in 2024 while only logging a single touch more than the 365 he earned a year prior.

Despite having some tremendous teammates surrounding him—including a pair of fellow early-Day 1 draft picks in Drake London and Kyle Pitts—Robinson is the unquestioned centerpiece of Atlanta's offense. He was on the field for approximately four-fifths of his squad's offensive snaps, a snap share that could increase after talented backup Tyler Allgeier exited this offseason.

Robinson also stands to benefit heavily from new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who is installing a system that will heavily feature his star back.

Numerous running backs have thrived in Stefanski's scheme, with players like Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb enjoying monster fantasy seasons under the coach during his time as Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator and Cleveland Browns head coach. Robinson could become the next to take a leap, even if there's little place left to go at this point but the very top.

Robinson is arguably the best pick possible at No. 1 overall. He possesses elite talent, the ability to handle an enormous workload and an important role in the passing attack—all within a system designed to maximize his strengths. This unique blend makes Robinson the safest candidate to take atop a fantasy draft.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

2025 Stats: 366.9 points (21.6 per game)

2025 Finish: No. 5 Overall (RB3)

2026 Rank: No. 4 Overall (RB2)

2026 ADP: No. 1

Jahmyr Gibbs is the most popular No. 1 pick for fantasy managers right now. That could change in the coming months, but the Detroit Lions running back could cement his status as the top choice during that span as well.

There isn't much not to like about Gibbs and his outlook for 2026. He's quickly ascended from promising prospect to bona fide superstar, putting up two consecutive incredible seasons in wake of an immensely promising debut in 2023.

While the Lions suffered through a down year collectively, Gibbs remained a bright spot for the offense. He couldn't match the career-best marks of 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns from 2024, but still mustered a whopping 1,839 yards and 18 touchdowns on a career-most 320 touches.

Despite a slight downtick in overall production, Gibbs authored the finest fantasy line yet last year thanks to a heavy increase in passing game usage. He went from posting a 52/517/4 line on 63 targets in 2024 to slashing 77/616/5 on an immense 94 targets. Only Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey saw more receiving looks last year.

There's no reason to expect Gibbs to see a reduction in volume in any facet of the offense in 2026. The team brought in Isiah Pacheco to take over RB2 duties, but the former Kansas City Chiefs standout will primarily be used in a rushing role and shouldn't cut into the 67 percent snap share Gibbs logged last year.

With Drew Petzing taking over offensive play-calling duties in the Motor City, there is real potential for the Lions to have a bounce-back season. If they can fire on all cylinders and return to the league's upper echelon of offenses, Gibbs will lead the way and easily post another top-five campaign with a good shot at being No. 1.