2026 MLB Home Run Derby Preview and Predictions

As the celebration of America 250 continues, the MLB All-Star Game and accompanying festivities are returning to the cradle of liberty: Philadelphia.

Citizens Bank Park is set to host the All-Star Game and Home Run Derby this week for the first time since the stadium opened in 2004.

The last time the Phillies hosted the Midsummer Classic was in 1996 at Veterans Stadium. That year, Barry Bonds defeated Mark McGwire in the Home Run Derby, an epic matchup of two of the most prolific home run hitters of the 1990s.

What will Philadelphia have in store this time around? Let's hope for something similarly memorable.

2025 Home Run Derby Rules/Format

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Major League Baseball has made changes to the Home Run Derby format in 2026, reverting back to a more old-school format with some modern updates for the contest.

MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan outlined some of the notable rules for this season's event:

• No timer and no "outs"
• Round 1: 20 swings
• Round 2: 15 swings
• Finals: 15 swings
• Each swing counts toward a player's allotment, homer or not
• If you homer on your last swing in any round, you keep going until you do not homer
• There is no bonus round and there is no "bracket" for the first round
• Tiebreakers: HR Distance (Round 1); three-swing swing-offs (Rounds 2 and 3)

Hopefully, this format will keep Round 1—which features eight participants—from feeling endless. With the timer gone, there is more of an ability to admire each individual home run as well.

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

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2026 Home Run Count: 20

Career Home Run Total: 383

DraftKings Odds: +850

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred selected Bryce Harper as the "legend pick" to get him into the game at his home park.

Harper had said he would only compete in the Home Run Derby if he was an All-Star, and he earned his ninth selection to the Midsummer Classic with an .862 OPS.

This will be Harper's third career appearance in the Home Run Derby, but first since he won it as a member of the Washington Nationals in 2018. He won that derby at Nationals Park, which was his home park at the time. He'll be aiming to become the first player to ever win the event twice in his home park, this time competing in Phillies pinstripes.

Harper's nickname is "The Showman," and he's made clear he's not entering just to participate. He's all in on trying to become the first Phillie to win the Home Run Derby since Ryan Howard did it at PNC Park in 2006.

Ben Rice, New York Yankees

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2026 Home Run Count: 29

Career Home Run Total: 62

DraftKings Odds: +850

Ben Rice would have been a surprise participant at the beginning of the season, but if you've watched the 27-year-old this year, you know he belongs on this stage.

Rice's 29 home runs are second among AL hitters this season, and with Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz going on the injured list with a right thumb strain, he'll likely start for the Junior Circuit at first base in the All-Star Game.

Aaron Judge—Rice's current teammate—is the most recent Yankee to win the Home Run Derby, doing it in 2017 at Marlins Park.

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

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2026 Home Run Count: 28

Career Home Run Total: 80

DraftKings Odds: +425

If you need an idea of how powerful Junior Caminero is, he hit 11 home runs during an 11-game stretch for the Rays this season between June 23 and July 4.

Of course, if you watched last year's Home Run Derby, you saw the prodigious power that Caminero possesses. He finished runner-up in the 2025 Home Run Derby at Truist Park in Atlanta to Cal Raleigh.

Since the Rays entered the league in 1998, no player representing Tampa Bay has won the Home Run Derby. Whether it's in 2026 or the future, Caminero has a real shot to change that.

Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals

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2026 Home Run Count: 15

Career Home Run Total: 22

DraftKings Odds: +650

Jac Caglianone was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft after a decorated collegiate career as a two-way player at Florida. After blowing through the minors, Caglianone struggled in his first 62 MLB games, posting just a .532 OPS in 2025.

However, Caglianone has come on with a vengeance lately, hitting nine home runs in June and looking like a long-term building block for the Kansas City Royals. The 23-year-old wasn't selected to the All-Star Game, but will no doubt fit in during Monday's competition.

While there were other iterations of home run hitting contests, MLB's first sanctioned one was held in 1985. A Royal has never won the Home Run Derby.

Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox

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2026 Home Run Count: 20

Career Home Run Total: 192

DraftKings Odds: +1200

It's been a disappointing season for the Boston Red Sox as a team, but Willson Contreras has been a tremendous pickup, earning him a fourth career trip to the Midsummer Classic.

While Contreras has prior experience in the All-Star Game, the veteran right-handed hitter hasn't ever competed in the Home Run Derby before.

The last player representing the Red Sox to win the Home Run Derby was Hall of Famer David Ortiz, who took home the crown in 2010 at Angel Stadium.

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

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2026 Home Run Count: 32

Career Home Run Total: 372

DraftKings Odds: +330

Kyle Schwarber leads baseball with 32 homers, putting him on pace to eclipse the NL-best 56 home runs he hit in 2025.

Schwarber last competed in the Home Run Derby in 2022, his first season with the Phillies. That year, he was eliminated in the first round under the bracket format, losing to Albert Pujols. He also competed in 2018 as a member of the Chicago Cubs, losing in the final round to ... Harper.

Harper and Schwarber are the first set of teammates to compete in the event together since Judge and Gary Sánchez represented the Yankees in 2017.

As we said previously, Howard is the last Phillie to win the Home Run Derby, with that coming 20 years ago. Howard was the second Phillie in a row to win it, as Bobby Abreu won the 2005 Home Run Derby at Comerica Park in Detroit.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

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2026 Home Run Count: 22

Career Home Run Total: 49

DraftKings Odds: +700

Jordan Walker was one of MLB's worst-graded players between 2024 and 2025, but he has recaptured the star potential he showed as a rookie in 2023 and then some in 2026.

A first-time All-Star, Walker has 22 home runs. He seems like a natural fit for this event, and given the question-answering season Walker has had, it would hardly be surprising if the 24-year-old makes a run at winning the whole thing.

Despite having employed players like McGwire, Pujols, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday and Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals have never had a Home Run Derby winner.

Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox

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2026 Home Run Count: 20

Career Home Run Total: 20

DraftKings Odds: +500

How good has Munetaka Murakami been as a rookie for the Chicago White Sox? Despite missing more than five weeks with a right hamstring strain, Murakami was added as an AL All-Star and will compete in the Home Run Derby, and you're likely not going to hear many complaints.

After concerns over how his game would translate to the majors, Murakami had to settle for a two-year, $34 million contract coming over from Japan this past offseason. He quickly quieted any questions about his ability to handle MLB pitching, as he's clubbed 20 home runs and posted a .911 OPS in his first 60 games.

The last time someone from the White Sox won the Home Run Derby was in 1995, with Hall of Famer Frank Thomas taking home the title at the Ballpark in Arlington.

Prediction

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Harper doesn't do anything halfway. The two-time NL MVP may have had some hesitancy to compete in the event, but now that he's here, he'll be all-in on trying to join Ken Griffey Jr., Pete Alonso, Yoenis Céspedes and Prince Fielder as the only players to win the Home Run Derby multiple times.

Phillies fans will be dreaming of the possibility of Harper and Schwarber going blow-for-blow in the final round, and it's not that far-fetched of a scenario considering the latter is the betting favorite.

However, the prediction here is that the 6'4", 250-pound Caglianone will burst onto the national stage with a strong showing in the event, emerging as the top challenger to Harper.

Since Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, Ryan Howard (two times) is the only player to hit the ball into the third deck in right field during a game, with both Harper and Barry Bonds among those to hit it off the facing but not actually into it. Caglianone has the type of power to reach the third deck in the Home Run Derby.

Still, we're going to take Harper and say that "The Showman" becomes the first player to win the Home Run Derby twice at his home park, then walks off into the sunset, never to compete in the event again.