Predicting the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline's Most Active Teams
It is shaping up to be an exciting MLB trade deadline once again, with an abundance of teams hovering around the .500 mark and facing a tough decision on which direction to go the rest of the way.
A disappointing season by the Detroit Tigers could create a frenzy of activity in pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal if he is made available, with no shortage of contenders viewing him as the missing piece.
Meanwhile, clear buyers like the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees have roster holes that will need to be filled next month, and that could mean a bidding war for the few impact players on the market.
Ahead, we've predicted the seven teams that will be most active at this year's trade deadline, with four buyers and three sellers, and created a shopping list for each buyer and a trade chip inventory for each seller.
First, a few teams worth monitoring that could alter the landscape if they put together a prolonged winning or losing streak in the coming weeks.
One Big Winning Streak or Losing Streak Away
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Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are not good enough to go all-in on the 2026 season right now, but they're also not obvious sellers with a talented starting rotation and about two-thirds of a quality lineup. The next few weeks will be important.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox have arrived sooner than expected, so the question now is whether they start pushing chips in for short-term upgrades or continue to focus on building something sustainable for the long term.
Minnesota Twins: The front office continues to throw water on the idea of trading Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan, but if the Twins hit a major rough patch they might change their tune. At this point, a full-scale rebuild seems more likely than contention.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are too talented to sell, but not playing well enough right now to be aggressive buyers. More than anything, they need their in-house talent to start performing up to expectations, specifically at the plate.
Toronto Blue Jays: It's hard to see them blowing things up one year removed from Game 7 of the ALCS, but the Blue Jays will at least need to consider flipping rental pieces like Daulton Varsho and Kevin Gausman if things don't improve.
Buyer: Atlanta Braves
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Shopping List
1. Shortstop
2. No. 2 Starting Pitcher
3. Rotation Depth
With a 49-33 record and plus-88 run differential, the Atlanta Braves have been one of baseball's elite teams all season, but things are trending in the wrong direction entering July.
They are 4-12 in their last 16 games, and what was once a 10.5-game lead in the NL East standings has shrunk to a narrow 3.5-game margin over the rival Philadelphia Phillies.
Offensively, shortstop has been the glaring hole, with Ha-Seong Kim (82 PA, .068/.171/.068, 0 XBH) looking more like a candidate to be released than a viable starter. Mauricio Dubón did well filling in for him while he was injured, but he is most valuable in a super-utility role and has been pressed into action in the outfield.
Beyond that, the most obvious need is a co-ace to slot alongside Chris Sale and ahead of Bryce Elder, Martín Pérez and whoever else is rounding out the Atlanta rotation. A thin farm system will make a Tarik Skubal run difficult, but there will be other options.
Seller: San Francisco Giants
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Top Trade Chips
1. SP Robbie Ray
2. 2B Luis Arraez
3. SP Tyler Mahle
4. Expensive Stars
The San Francisco Giants have already indicated that they are willing to listen on high-priced veterans Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers and Willy Adames, though unloading any of those contracts might be easier said than done.
Even if that group stays put, and they steer away from shopping Jung Hoo Lee in the midst of a breakout season, they still have several intriguing rental chips that contenders will be lining up to acquire.
Veteran Robbie Ray has a 3.39 ERA over 95.2 innings in the final season of a five-year, $115 million deal, while fellow rental starter Tyler Mahle's 4.83 FIP paints a more encouraging picture than his 5.67 ERA on the year.
Luis Arraez is once again in the thick of the batting title race with a .326/.362/.450 line after signing a one-year, $12 million contract, and proving he can still play a competent second base (-2 DRS, 10 OAA) should open up his market.
Buyer: Chicago Cubs
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Shopping List
1. Impact Starting Pitcher
2. High-Leverage Reliever
3. Rotation Depth
The Chicago Cubs starting rotation has been hit hard by injuries this season, starting with the loss of rising ace Cade Horton for the year after just two starts, and the starting staff currently sits 25th in the majors with a 4.51 ERA.
A healthy Justin Steele will provide an in-house boost, but there is no guarantee he will immediately return to impact form considering his last MLB appearance was April 7, 2025.
Best-case scenario, the front office would add at least one starting pitcher capable of taking the ball in a playoff series, along with perhaps one other depth piece to help protect against further injury issues.
The bullpen should also be a deadline focal point, as they have been much less successful piecing together a viable relief corps this year than they were in 2025. They have 14 blown saves in 27 chances, and closer Daniel Palencia is currently on the injured list, along with high-volume veterans Phil Maton and Hoby Milner.
Seller: New York Mets
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Top Trade Chips
1. SP Freddy Peralta
2. 3B Bo Bichette
3. RP Huascar Brazobán
4. RP Luke Weaver
5. RPs Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter
The New York Mets fell to a season-low 15 games below .500 with Monday's loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, less than a week after firing manager Carlos Mendoza following a four-game sweep by the Chicago Cubs.
Barring an all-time heater in the coming weeks, they will be sellers at the deadline, and the biggest chips they can dangle were prized offseason acquisitions Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette.
Despite a lackluster start to the year, Peralta will likely be the top arm on the market outside of Tarik Skubal, potentially netting a Top 100 prospect even as a two-month rental. Bichette is in the first season of a three-year, $126 million deal, but the expectation is that he will opt-out of the final two years and re-enter free agency.
Beyond those two stars, they have a handful of quality relievers that would be of interest to any contender with bullpen issues. Huascar Brazobán looks like the most valuable of the bunch with a 1.94 ERA in 35 appearances and club control through 2029, though he turns 37 in October.
Buyer: New York Yankees
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Shopping List
1. Third Baseman
2. High-Leverage Reliever
3. Platoon Catcher
The New York Yankees have looked like the best team in the American League throughout the 2026 season, and that alone should be reason enough for them to be aggressive in hunting upgrades at the trade deadline.
Third base looks like the most glaring hole, with Ryan McMahon (202 PA, 74 OPS+) providing little impact and utility guys Amed Rosario and José Caballero holding things down now that he is injured.
The trio of David Bednar, Fernando Cruz and Brent Headrick has been solid at the back of the bullpen, but the rest of the relief corps has been an adventure, and adding at least one more reliable veteran arm could go a long way.
The catching market is generally thin at the deadline, but with Austin Wells (192 PA, 39 OPS+) providing nothing offensively, they need to at least explore alternatives. Ideally, someone who can hit left-handed pitching, as Wells is even worse against southpaws.
Seller: Detroit Tigers
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Top Trade Chips
1. SP Tarik Skubal
2. SP Casey Mize
3. 2B Gleyber Torres
4. SP Jack Flaherty
5. RP Kenley Jansen
After adding Framber Valdez in free agency and with top prospect Kevin McGonigle knocking on the door, the Detroit Tigers looked like the best team in the AL Central by a wide margin heading into the 2026 season.
Instead, they have struggled to a 36-49 record, and sit just one game away from the bottom of the division standings. Unless things change drastically in the coming weeks, all eyes will be on Detroit leading up to the trade deadline.
Tarik Skubal is one of baseball's true aces, coming off back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards, and with a potential record-setting payday coming his way in free agency this offseason the Tigers have to explore all options to maximize his value.
Beyond him, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty are also rental candidates that should draw widespread interest. Mize is having an excellent season with a 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts, while Flaherty just tossed five scoreless innings with nine strikeouts on Sunday.
Buyer: Philadelphia Phillies
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Shopping List
1. Corner Outfielder
2. Mid-Rotation Starting Pitcher
3. High-Leverage Reliever
It's easy to forget that the Philadelphia Phillies struggled to the point of firing manager Rob Thomson earlier this year, but they have righted the ship in a major way, going 38-19 under interim manager Don Mattingly.
That includes a 17-9 record in June that has them all the way up to No. 2 in Bleacher Report's latest weekly power rankings. With an aging veteran core and the fifth-highest payroll in baseball, there might be no team with a greater sense of urgency to solidify its status as a title contender than the Phillies.
A season-ending injury to Adolis García and the demotion of rookie Andrew Painter has created two glaring roster holes in right field and at the back of the rotation, and both will likely require outside additions.
The relief corps is not the same glaring issue it was the last few seasons, especially at the back end with Jhoan Durán slamming the door, but they still sit 15th with a 4.06 bullpen ERA and could use more help bridging the gap to Durán.
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