NHL Trade Grades: Senators Send Brady Tkachuk to Panthers in Exchange for 3 1st-Round Picks

Call it Schrodinger's trade, as this is simultaneously the least surprising outcome ever as well as an absolute stunner. 

Nobody is, conceptually, taken aback by the concept of Brady Tkachuk as a Florida Panther. At times, it seemed like the worst-kept secret in hockey, even despite Brady's insistence to the contrary. But while the idea seemed amorphously inevitable, there was no public indication that the Senators were actively discussing a trade, let alone on the precipice of pulling one off.

For Florida, this is a rejuvenating move as they attempt to get back to Cup contention. For Ottawa, it completely alters the franchise's identity and trajectory. 

Let's grade the move for the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators. 

Florida Panthers

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Call in Mike Breen. This one deserves a "BANG!"

The Mackie Samoskevich trade was the canary in the coal mine. It was obvious the Panthers were building up to something big, but the addition of a high-end winger like Brady Tkachuk makes his departure all the more obvious.

Look, I've made my critiques of Brady known. I labeled him the "most overrated player in the NHL" a few months ago. By that, I meant that I did not think he could be the best forward on a contending team. He will not have to live up to that in Florida, where he is now arguably not even a top-three forward on the roster. 

A point-per-game winger capable of hitting 30 goals and who may end up on the second line? A ridiculous luxury. That's before getting into all the other things Brady does. He drives offense. He's big and plays a brash style, but he also has the skill to make plays with his hands and feet. He's an awesome fit for Florida's cycle offense. He brings a bit of soft skill carrying the puck up ice that Carter Verhaeghe and even his brother Matthew don't necessarily possess. A strong playmaker to go with the real scoring threats on the PP, like Sam Reinhart.

The pick cost is high, but forget about it.

Even a ninth-overall pick who proves worthy of the slot won't make a serious impact for four or five seasons. The Panthers don't have time to waste. The contention window is now. Brady turns just 27 in September. He's more than worth the $8.2M cap hit this season and next, and one has to expect he'll not only re-sign in Florida before July 2028 to stay with his brother, but also buy in to the collective sacrifice shown by other players and take a bit of a pay cut to facilitate a strong Panthers roster for the long run. If the Panthers can convince Brady to re-sign on a contract with a cap hit similar to Matthew's $ 9.5 million over eight seasons, it's a favorable deal.

I do not think Brady is as good as some advertise, and there are many teams for whom I'd view this type of trade as a disaster. Florida is not one of them. It's a big-time addition for a team that has restated its place as a favorite to win the Stanley Cup for the third time in four seasons, to say nothing of a long contention window to follow.

Grade: A

Ottawa Senators

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Steve Staios

It's a step back for the Senators. A playoff team in 2025-26 with hopes to find another level, they are trading their captain, in his prime years, for draft picks. That's not how you draw this up.

In spite of that, I see a path for this to become a blessing in disguise.

Brady Tkachuk is a good player. A really good player, in fact. All-Star, high-level, Olympian, etc. I also think name branding and collective obsession with players who play an aggressive style led to his overrating. He's an 80-point winger who drives offense well and plays average defense. You can throw in some bonus points for leadership qualities (though maybe Ottawa fans now beg to differ). Even still, we're talking about a first-line winger but not one of the 10 best in the NHL. Over the last five seasons, Tkachuk ranks 53rd among NHL forwards by Goals Above Replacement. Even in the best of times, he is not a franchise player.

The Senators are a good team but seem to have hit a ceiling as an organization. They finished fifth in the Atlantic Division last season. Three consecutive awful draft classes between 2021 and 2023 harmed their internal options for improvement. They have a lot of holes on the roster, including in goal.

Ripping off the band-aid with Tkachuk, whose departure was inevitable, is the best move for the franchise. Even for top players, it's not often that top-10 picks get traded. A ninth-overall pick plus a later first-rounder in 2026 are not only strong assets but ones that can be realized pretty quickly. On top of that, they get another first-round pick and a second. Yeah, it sucks to not receive an actual NHL talent back, but hold that thought.

The Sens are a weaker team today than they were yesterday, but they suddenly look poised to be a big hunter in the marketplace the next couple of seasons. They have over $25 million in cap space this summer and three first-round picks with which to play. If Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson hits the trade market, could Ottawa be positioned to make the big splash for a clear upgrade on Tkachuk? The Senators could acquire a similarly talented player in Jordan Kyrou at a lower cost than they received in return for Tkachuk. They could justify cutting pending UFA winger Alex Tuch a big check to play a similar style game. In those cases, that leaves them with a lot of assets remaining to round out the roster and fill some needs down the wings and in net.

These types of moments often portend a rebuild. This is the end of an era in Ottawa, but the Sens could still be on track for something exciting. They lose what was building up to be a major distraction involving a great but, frankly, overrated player.

Now Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson are the faces of the franchise. Stützle, with Dylan Cozens and Shane Pinto down the middle, still leads one of the best center groups in the NHL. Sanderson and Thomas Chabot will lead the blue line for one of the top stingiest defenses in the league.

GM Steve Staios has to play his cards right here, but I think that in a few years we could look back on this moment as a catalyst for the Senators reaching heights they never would have with the status quo.

Grade: A-