Who Could Be the Next Sam Darnold? Ranking QB Redemption Arcs Based on Potential Super Bowl Success

In 2025, Sam Darnold led the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl as a borderline journeyman who was on his fifth roster in a six-year span. 

It was an unprecedented development, as the 28-year-old was likely running out of chances to stick as a long-term franchise quarterback in the NFL. 

Darnold might not have been a mere bridge QB, but he easily could have turned into one had he struggled instead of excelling in the 2025 campaign. Regardless, he was a veteran who had never experienced prolonged success as a starter with one team. 

This season, six particular quarterbacks fit that profile to various degrees. They've been around, they've had their moments, but they're fighting now to essentially "pull a Darnold" and save their careers as No. 1 guys. 

Let's rank the six based on their odds of experiencing significant success in 2026.

6. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

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Deshaun Watson

The Browns might not be ready to give up on Watson, a now-healthy three-time Pro Bowler who is still only 30. But it's extremely difficult to imagine the 2017 first-round pick suddenly redeeming himself at this point. 

Since the end of the 2020 season, Watson has thrown 19 total touchdown passes in 19 starts over a span of half a decade. He's coming off a serious Achilles injury that cost him his entire 2025 campaign, but he struggled to stay on the field in the previous three seasons as well. 

And when he was out there, he just wasn't the quarterback we saw during a magnificent three-year run between 2018 and 2020 in Houston. 

Obviously, a lot has transpired since that tenure with the Texans. And the reality is there's a good chance the Browns would have already moved on if not for the fact that cutting him would result in a $45 million dead-cap charge. 

Watson may technically be operating as the team's No. 1 quarterback this offseason, but this coaching staff isn't tied to his acquisition, and I'm not convinced early reported good vibes between Watson and new head coach Todd Monken will ultimately amount to much. 

The front office would probably prefer the younger and cheaper Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel take the reins, and that pressure combined with the fact Cleveland quarterbacks will inevitably lack support during a rebuilding season is enough for me to write off Watson for 2026.

5. Geno Smith, New York Jets

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Geno Smith

Yes, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn stated earlier this offseason that Smith would lead the team "to the promised land," while offensive coordinator Frank Reich called the 35-year-old "a perfect fit" for New York's offense.

But actions speak louder than words—actions such as the team chasing free-agent veteran Russell Wilson, among other established options. 

Whatever they say, the Jets must be fully aware that Smith is a bridge to whatever is next.

This is a quarterback on his third team in as many years. He has thrown a league‑high 32 interceptions since the start of 2024, and no other quarterback has more than 27.

Smith was a bust during his first stint with the Jets. He later got a shot to replace Wilson in a bridge-type role with the Seahawks, ironically providing a buffer between Wilson and Darnold. It was during that stretch that he put up the only strong statistical season of his 12-year career when he threw 30 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions in a triple-digit-rated 2022 campaign. 

But that was four years ago.

Glenn and Reich are hoping Smith can do enough with a promising young offense to keep them employed beyond this campaign. In a perfect world, that future features a 2027 first-round pick quarterbacking Gang Green beyond this season.

4. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

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Jacoby Brissett

Brissett has sparked a contract dispute with a rebuilding Cardinals team, even though this is a franchise that lost 11 of his 12 starts in 2025 and hasn't put together a winning season since 2021. 

Did the 33-year-old perform better than that win-loss record indicated in 2025? Absolutely. He threw 23 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions to earn the starting job this offseason. 

But he'll almost certainly be challenged by free-agent addition Gardner Minshew II and/or rookie third-round pick Carson Beck, and there's little doubt in my mind the Cards would have already essentially replaced him with Fernando Mendoza had they been lucky enough to land the top pick in the 2026 draft. 

Brissett still posted the league's eighth-worst on-target rate in 2025, so let's cool our jets on that campaign. And while he flashed at times, his earlier starting stints with the Colts, Dolphins and Browns were largely underwhelming.

Given that track record, it's fair to wonder if he'll revert closer to that version of himself in 2026, much like Smith did at a similar age in Seattle in 2023 and 2024.

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons

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Tua Tagovailoa

Hear me out on Tagovailoa, who wore out his welcome in Miami and faces an uphill battle in Atlanta but could have a path to success in a welcoming new home. 

There's a chance he doesn't even earn the starting job in an offseason battle with Michael Penix Jr., but Penix has even more to prove in terms of both performance and durability.

And let's not lose sight of the fact that Tagovailoa has proved to be a highly efficient quarterback at many points in his career.

The still-only-28-year-old 2020 No. 5 overall pick ranks sixth in EPA per dropback over the past three seasons. He was the league's highest-rated qualified passer in 2022, and he led the NFL in passing yardage in 2023 and completion percentage in 2024. 

His 2025 campaign was ugly, but that was with extremely limited support as everything blew up for the Dolphins. Now, he joins a more stable and intriguing offense coached by Kevin Stefanski, and he'll have no shortage of weapons and support with talented young starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end, as well as a strong offensive line. 

In other words, this could be the right place and right time if Tagovailoa can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern considering his history with injuries and concussions. Hence the middle-of-the-pack ranking here. 

2. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Baker Mayfield

Some might argue that Mayfield doesn't belong here because he's a two-time Pro Bowler who has been a relatively steady starter the last three seasons for the Buccaneers. But he's entering a contract year at the age of 31, and he was the league's fifth-lowest-rated qualified passer from Week 11 onward in 2025. 

As an eight-year veteran, Mayfield faces going down the Geno/Jacoby path if he doesn't bounce back in 2026. 

The good news is that with Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. at receiver, a quality offensive line, and soft competition within the NFC South, a late-blooming Mayfield could certainly find another gear at this point in his career. 

The Bucs still aren't a frontline Super Bowl contender, but they have the talent and experience to make a surprise run if Mayfield delivers a career year. And that's entirely within the realm of possibility.

1. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

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Kyler Murray

I'm not remotely ready to give up on Murray—one of the most uniquely talented players in the sport but a quarterback who consistently fell short during a seven-year run with the Cardinals that was tainted by injuries, coaching turnover, and a distinct lack of institutional support. 

Like Watson, Murray made multiple Pro Bowls early in his career. Unlike Watson, he has enjoyed some success as recently as 2024 and has avoided off-field controversy. Plus, he now joins a Minnesota offense that features one of the most dominant receivers in football and a strong offensive line.

Murray just has to beat out 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, which shouldn't be a problem considering just how poorly McCarthy has performed when healthy. And another way to look at it is that McCarthy could push Murray without actually doing enough to overtake him on the depth chart.  

This Vikings squad was a legitimate contender with 14 wins in 2024, so if a 29-year-old Murray can become comfortable and experience a rejuvenation under Kevin O'Connell, the sky's the limit for both player and team.