Score Predictions for the 10 Most Pivotal NFL Matchups of 2026

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Even something as innocuous as the release of the 2026 NFL schedule is enough to generate a flood of attention and excitement. The release itself is a made-for-TV event. Afterward, all 32 teams put out fun little schedule release videos.

And then the fun really begins.

From the moment the schedule comes out, fans start mapping out wins and losses. Pundits start plotting out the biggest matchups of the year. It is not an exaggeration to say that while you are reading this, someone is planning a trip to see what they consider a "can't-miss" game in 2026.

There are such games every week of the season, from the season opener in Australia between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to a Week 18 matchup in Baltimore between the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, contests that will be pivotal in determining the path to Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium in L.A.

Here's a look at 10 of those pivotal games and early predictions on how each will pan out.

Week 1: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Scot Tucker/AP Content Services for the NFL

Seahawks PK Jason Myers

On some level, it seems a bit odd to call a Week 1 matchup "pivotal." Yes, this Thursday night rematch of Super Bowl LX is a big game, but it's not like the team that comes up short is doomed.

However, that doesn't mean this contest doesn't have big stakes. For the home team, it's a chance to reinforce their status as the NFL's best team—to show the champs mean business again. For the visiting Patriots, it's an opportunity for a measure of redemption—a chance to open the 2026 season by exorcising some of the demons of 2025.

In New England's 29-13 loss to the Seahawks in Santa Clara, the story was New England's miscues and Seattle's dominance of the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks will likely be opening the season with a rookie running back in Jadarian Price as Zach Charbonnet rehabs an ACL tear, while the Patriots have a revamped offensive line and are widely expected to have a new No. 1 receiver in veteran A.J. Brown.

Trite though it may sound, this game is going to come down to the same things the Super Bowl did: controlling the point of attack and avoiding turnovers and costly mistakes.

The Patriots will keep this one closer, but in front of a raucous Lumen Field crowd, the Seahawks will win a close one on a Jason Myers field goal.

Final Score: Seahawks 26, Patriots 24

Week 2: Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

AP Foto/Jack Dempsey

Bills QB Josh Allen

Again, "pivotal" is a relative term—the team that loses this Week 2 matchup still has plenty of time to assemble a playoff resume. But this is still a contest with high stakes for both teams.

For the visiting Lions, it is their first real opportunity this season to show that missing the postseason last year was a fluke. That last season's late swoon was a one-off. That the Lions remain a contender in the NFC North and a threat to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LXI.

For the Bills, it's the first-ever game that counts in the team's new home. It's also the second game for the new coaching staff in Buffalo and a second straight test to open the season after the Bills face the Texans in Houston in Week 1.

The Bills enter this season with a new No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore and multiple new starters on defense headlined by edge-rusher Bradley Chubb. The Lions have a new starter at tackle in rookie Blake Miller but a defense that is mostly unchanged after finishing last season in the middle of the pack.

It's that defense that will cost Detroit in front of a rowdy crowd that will have jumped through more than a few tables by kickoff.

Final Score: Bills 30, Lions 23

Week 5: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/John McCoy

Chargers OT Rashawn Slater

Let's move a little farther into the season and start looking at some of the intra-divisional games that will shape the 2026 campaign.

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are the top two contenders to win the AFC West this year. Both teams made the postseason last year, with the Broncos capturing the AFC's No. 1 seed. Both squads also fielded top-five defenses.

The Chargers were eventually undone by an offensive line that was ravaged by injuries in 2025, but the Bolts are hopeful that the return of a healthy Rashawn Slater and Jo Alt at tackle and the addition of center Tyler Biadasz will turn that weakness into a strength.

Denver's Super Bowl aspirations were cut short last year when quarterback Bo Nix got hurt in the playoffs, but his return and the addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle gives the Broncos one of the league's most-loaded rosters on paper.

However, games aren't played on paper, and Denver's opening stretch is about as tough as it gets. Of its first six games, five are against playoff teams from a year ago, and the one that isn't is a Week 1 trip to Kansas City.

This is the fifth of those contests, and the Chargers squeaked by Denver at home in Week 3 last year.

When that happens again, the Broncos could find themselves scrambling to dig out of an early hole—and the Chargers will be in the driver's seat in the division.

Final Score: Chargers 20, Broncos 17

Week 7: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals QB Joe Burrow

This is the first matchup in this piece featuring two teams that both missed the postseason a year ago. But make no mistake: While the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals were also-rans a year ago, they are arguably the top contenders in the AFC North.

Both teams feature elite quarterbacks in Cincinnati's Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens. Both have offensive firepower in the likes of running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase.

Both teams also had massive defensive deficiencies, though. The Bengals were the worst defense in the AFC last year, and the Ravens fielded a bottom-three pass defense for the second consecutive season.

Both teams took steps to address those deficiencies. The Ravens poached edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson from the Bengals. Cincinnati completely revamped their defensive front, trading for tackle Dexter Lawrence, drafting edge-rusher Cashius Howell and signing edge-rusher Boye Mafe and tackle Jonathan Allen.

The Ravens will no doubt be looking for some payback in this one—the Bengals shellacked Baltimore 32-14 on Thanksgiving last year. But while Hendrickson should add some pop to the pass rush, a secondary that's much more name than numbers remains a potential issue.

These teams have had their share of shootouts in recent years. This will be no different, with Burrow leading the team to a win on the road.

Final Score: Bengals 38, Ravens 35

Week 12: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

When you gather with family and friends to celebrate Thanksgiving this year, buckle up—because the holiday slate is the best in recent memory. Maybe ever.

That slate will begin—as it always does—with a game in Detroit. And this time around, that game carries major stakes in the NFC North.

That was the case a year ago as well, when the Lions and Green Bay Packers met. Detroit came up short 31-24, and that was the beginning of a 2-4 finish to the season that resulted in the Lions missing the postseason.

While the Lions were swooning, the Bears were having problems of their own, going 2-3 down the stretch. But their 11 regular-season wins were still enough to capture the NFC North.

That division title earned the Bears a first-place schedule. In fact, in terms of opponent winning percentage, no team in the NFL faces a more difficult schedule than Chicago. The team has the talent to be a contender once again, but there isn't going to be much margin for error.

The story of this game will be Chicago's ability to slow down a Detroit offense that was top-five in both yards and points per game in 2025. The last time the Bears visited Ford Field, the Lions scored 50 points on them. They also haven't beaten the Lions in Detroit since 2021—also on Thanksgiving.

The Lions win by double digits, and Chicago's chances of repeating as division champs take a major hit.

Final Score: Lions 37, Bears 23

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

What? We weren't kidding when we said this year's Turkey Day slate is loaded.

The Dallas Cowboys had no problems moving the ball or scoring points a year ago—the team was second in the NFL last year in total offense and seventh in scoring.

However, the Cowboys were just a seven-win team because of a defense that was legitimately awful. They allowed the third-most yards in the league, and no team surrendered more points per contest.

The Cowboys took a buzzsaw to that defense in the offseason, adding talent at all three levels in the likes of edge-rusher Malachi Lawrence, linebacker Dee Winters and safety Caleb Downs.

The question is whether that defense will be improved enough to legitimately challenge the Philadelphia Eagles, who are vying for their fourth division crown in five years.

For the Eagles, last year the issue was offense—despite having quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley and a solid cadre of pass-catchers, the Eagles were 24th in the league in total offense. If that offense struggles to find consistency again this year, the door will be opened for a team like the Cowboys to claim the division.

The Cowboys stunned the Eagles in Dallas last year, tying a franchise record for the team's largest-ever comeback. But that is Dallas' only win against Philly over the past two years.

The Eagles are just the better team. And this win will likely give them a stranglehold on the division entering December.

Final Score: Eagles 33, Cowboys 31

Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Even after a big Thanksgiving meal, NFL fans will want to stay locked in—because the nightcap is every bit as compelling as the two games that come before it.

By the time Week 12 rolls around, the Buffalo Bills will likely be in the thick of the chase in the AFC East. Whether the Kansas City Chiefs are in similar position in the AFC West depends largely on Patrick Mahomes' early-season availability and what kind of shape he's in when he does retake the field. But Mahomes should be close to 100 percent come Turkey Day.

And any time the Bills and Chiefs mix it up, it's a pivotal game.

Regardless of their records, both teams are going to view this as a must-win. A chance to show they remain among the NFL's elite.

The series between these teams of late has depended largely on the stakes. In the regular season, it has been all Bills all the time—Buffalo has won five straight against Kansas City. But the script has been flipped in the postseason, with the Chiefs winning four in a row.

Given that, the Bills would appear to be the pick here. But streaks were made to be broken, and the Chiefs may well have more on the line than Buffalo at this point in the season.

Final Score: Chiefs 31, Bills 28

Week 15: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski

Steelers edge T.J. Watt

This writer will readily admit to doubts about the viability of the Pittsburgh Steelers as legitimate contenders in the AFC.

Yes, they added weapons on offense in wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Rico Dowdle. With veteran cornerback Jamel Dean in town, the Pittsburgh secondary could be formidable.

However, Pittsburgh's season rests on the shoulders of a quarterback who turns 43 in December and clearly isn't the player he once was.

But those same Steelers won the AFC North last year, and any time Pittsburgh and the Baltimore Ravens get together, it's as physical and nasty as any rivalry in football.

However, it's also a rivalry that has been dominated by the Steelers in recent years. Since 2020, Pittsburgh has won 10 of 12 meetings, including two wins in 2025 by a combined seven points. The Ravens are an equally depressing 1-5 in Pittsburgh over that span.

The Steelers have the depth on the edge and on the back end to make Jackson uncomfortable. If the Ravens can match that defensive intensity, though, they should be able to put the clamps on a so-so Steelers offense.

As they usually are, this is going to be a close one. But Pittsburgh's dominance of the Ravens of late can't be ignored, and the Steelers are at home here.

Final Score: Steelers 23, Ravens 21

Week 15: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

Texans edge Will Anderson Jr.

When you think of pivotal games, the AFC South isn't generally the first division that comes to mind. But when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans in Week 15, it could be the game that decides the division.

The Jaguars were one of the bigger surprises of the 2025 campaign, winning nine of their last 10 games a year ago to finish 13-4 and win the AFC South. The Texans weren't far behind—they won 10 of 11 down the stretch last year to finish 12-5 and both make the playoffs and win a postseason game for the third time in as many years with C.J. Stroud under center.

Of course, Stroud then completely imploded in the playoffs, and that turnover-filled fiasco has left his career at a crossroads. The offensive line has seemingly been a question mark for years. But the offensive weapons are there in the likes of wide receiver Nico Collins and David Montgomery. Houston's defense might be the NFL's best.

The Texans have also been successful against Jacksonville in recent years. That one loss the Jaguars had after their bye last season? A trip to Houston to face the Texans in Week 10. Houston has swept the season series three times over the past six years, and the Texans are 9-3 against the Jaguars since 2020.

In a game where touchdowns will be at a premium, the Texans defense will find the end zone in a win Houston needs given how much harder their last month is than the Jags.

Final Score: Texans 23, Jaguars 19

Week 16: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/John Froschauer

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

You didn't think we'd forget the Los Angeles Rams—the NFL saved them for Christmas.

There are three Christmas Day games this year, and the Rams visiting the reigning Super Bowl champions is the nightcap. It's the first of two meetings between the teams over the final three weeks of the season, games that will have enormous ramifications for both the NFC West and the conference as a whole.

Last year the Rams and Seahawks split their matchups, each winning at home. Both games were nail-biters. One went to overtime, and they were decided by a combined three points.

When last we saw the Seahawks, they were throttling the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX. There were personnel losses in the offseason (chief among them Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III), but Seattle has all the tools necessary for a repeat.

The Rams might be the league's best team on paper—an already-loaded roster addressed its biggest need in the offseason with the acquisitions of cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. If the Rams play to their potential in 2026, Los Angeles is going to be the toughest of outs.

Those improvements by the Rams are going to be the difference in Week 16—setting up what could be an even bigger showdown at SoFi Stadium two weeks later.

Final Score: Rams 31, Seahawks 30