Predicting Sophomore Slumps or Stardom for NFL Players Entering Second Season in 2026

Much of the focus this offseason has been on the incoming prospects from the 2026 NFL draft, but last year's rookie class is poised to have a much larger impact on the league this season.

While several 2025 draftees had terrific Year 1 performances, the vast majority performed at an average level or below. These players are now heading into a pivotal campaign, one that could make or break their careers.

Some second-year players appear poised for superstardom, while others will suffer a dreaded sophomore slump.

With that in mind, let's highlight some of the bigger names from the 2025 class and predict how their 2026 season will shake out.

Stardom: QB Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

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After the previous regime struggled to unlock the potential of Cam Ward, the Tennessee Titans elected to make sweeping regime changes this offseason.

The team now has hopes of contending with a new front office and coaching staff that has built a promising roster around the 2025 No. 1 overall pick.

Ward took his lumps as a rookie on a bad team last year. He finished the season with a lowly 59.8 percent completion rate and led the league with 55 sacks, but there were plenty of bright spots as well.

The Miami product had more than double the number of touchdown throws (15) as he did interceptions (7) and he racked up a respectable 3,169 yards through the air despite having one of the NFL's worst supporting casts and losing his head coach six games in.

The Tennessee offense should be far more creative in 2026 thanks to the arrival of OC Brian Daboll, a renowned quarterback whisperer who helped develop Josh Allen into a bona fide superstar during his time with the Buffalo Bills.

A lack of playmakers to throw to won't be a problem this year, either, as the Titans utilized the No. 4 overall pick to make a game-changing addition in Carnell Tate.

The Ohio State product rated as the No. 2 receiver on B/R's board, with scout Dame Parson describing Tate as a "route-running technician who specializes in manipulating defensive backs."

With his ability to create separation, cover ground quickly, win at the catch point and even run block at a high level, Tate immediately becomes the No. 1 WR this offense was sorely missing at the onset of the Ward era.

It's hard enough for a young signal-caller to thrive in their initial seasons and almost impossible to do so without a star-caliber receiver to lean on, so the Titans deserve praise for addressing this deficiency.

Once you factor in a shrewd Wan'Dale Robinson pickup—a short-yardage ace who will keep the chains moving in Tennessee—and several offensive-line improvements, it's easy to envision Ward having a highly successful sophomore season.

Slump: QB Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

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The Cleveland Browns are going into the 2026 season with a little more certainty under center than they've had in recent years, with Shedeur Sanders a clear front-runner to remain the starter after a decent finish to his rookie campaign.

Despite the promise Sanders showed in Year 1, it remains to be seen if he'll go on to have a successful NFL career. The QB finished 2026 having completed an unsightly 56.6 percent of his throws while getting picked off 10 times and taking 23 sacks. His QBR was a concerning 18.8—the lowest of any rookie passer in Cleveland history who made at least six starts—and the team averaged just 14.6 points from Week 12 on when he became the starter.

Some of these shortcomings can be blamed on a lack of talent on the roster, but Sanders did have decent weapons like breakout rookie Harold Fannin Jr. and veteran wideout Jerry Jeudy Jr. to leverage.

Cleveland selected a pair of wideouts in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston early in the draft to improve the supporting cast, although it isn't a great sign that Sanders couldn't do much with the tools he had at his disposal last year.

The team also upgraded a patchwork offensive line this offseason by trading for Tytus Howard, drafting Spencer Fano at No. 9 overall and signing Elgton Jenkins and Zion Johnson in free agency, but it's too early to tell if these sweeping changes will have the desired effect on a unit that ranked dead-last in PFSN's rankings.

It's also worth noting that new head coach Todd Monken was at his best working with a far more accurate and mobile signal-caller in Lamar Jackson. The former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator will need to drastically adjust his system to work around Sanders, a pocket passer who doesn't represent a major danger on the ground.

There are too many things that need to go right for Sanders to have a sophomore breakout. He may eventually develop into a franchise passer, but expecting a massive Year 2 leap isn't realistic.

Stardom: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

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The Jacksonville Jaguars went all-in to acquire Travis Hunter in last year's draft, but the bold gambit didn't pay off when he appeared in just seven games and made a limited impact before being shut down for the year.

Prior to suffering a noncontact LCL injury during a practice session, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner had recorded 28 receptions for 298 yards and one touchdown as a receiver and 15 tackles and a single pass defense at the cornerback position.

Those middling marks weren't the type of production Jacksonville was hoping to get from a prospect it gave up so much to land, but it was readily apparent that Hunter's numbers weren't congruent with his talent level. A change in usage will help him reach that lofty ceiling.

General manager James Gladstone revealed his squad's bold plans for Hunter during a recent appearance on the The Rich Eisen Show:

"He is set to play both sides of the ball. The piece that I think we can expect to see is actually an uptick in corner usage. Last year it was a higher volume, higher percentage of wide receiver usage than it was corner. I think we can expect to see that corner percentile and count go up. That's not to say anything impacts his availability and usage on offense. It just means that cornerback usage will increase."

Hunter logged a 36 percent defensive snap share as a rotational rookie and is trending towards becoming a fixture on that side of the ball following the departure of Greg Newsome II this offseason.

With a full offseason to adapt to a starting cornerback role, Hunter could quickly emerge as one of the NFL's best corners. He possesses all the unteachable qualities and intangibles required to be a star-caliber defensive back and now gets the opportunity to realize that upside.

If he can accomplish that while still being an impactful part-time playmaker for the offense, he'll be well worth the capital that Jacksonville gave up to land him.

Slump: WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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With Mike Evans joining the San Francisco 49ers in free agency, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be turning to Emeka Egbuka to plug the massive hole created by the franchise icon's departure.

Unfortunately for the Bucs, their sophomore wideout may not be ready to fill Evans' massive shoes.

Although Egbuka looked like one of the steals of the 2025 draft after racking up 677 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 40 catches over his first nine games, he suffered a massive dip in production from Week 11 on.

The rookie only accounted for 261 receiving yards on 23 catches during that span, failing to score a single touchdown and only breaching the 42-yard mark in one of those eight contests.

Ball security was an issue for Egbuka during the latter portion of the campaign, with the wideout committing six of his nine total drops after Week 8.

It's worth noting that much of Egbuka's slump overlapped with a lengthy absence from Evans.  With the veteran on the shelf, the Bucs struggled to generate offense at the same rate they had been while the six-time Pro Bowler was healthy.

While Egbuka was far from the only problem in Tampa—Baker Mayfield's accuracy was an issue and play-calling from former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was questionable—it did highlight a potential inability to work as a No. 1 WR at this early stage of his career.

Chris Godwin may be unreliable due to injury concerns—having missed 18 games over the last two seasons—but the veteran could end up being Tampa's top receiving option if he can stay healthy.

Should Egbuka get off to a slow start, Godwin is a strong bet to return to the top of the pecking order and push his sophomore teammate into a more complementary role.

Stardom: RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

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Although he was the highest drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 overall in 2018, Ashton Jeanty didn't quite live up to the hype as the No. 6 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders last year.

Even though the Boise State product flirted with 1,000 rushing yards, contributed nearly 350 yards in the passing game and scored 10 total touchdowns, his production was largely the result of a downtrodden franchise feeding its rookie a massive amount of volume.

Jeanty's pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per reception averages tell a better story of how he fared in 2025.

While Jeanty gave it his best effort, he couldn't singlehandedly elevate the Raiders to respectability. The team finished with a putrid 3-14 record, although the silver lining of that abysmal campaign was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft and the rights to take superstar signal-caller Fernando Mendoza.

With Mendoza set to be the future of this long-suffering franchise, the Raiders worked tirelessly to bolster his supporting cast this offseason. They secured a great head coaching candidate in Klint Kubiak (fresh off winning a Super Bowl as the Seattle Seahawks' offensive coordinator) and signed impact veterans such as Jalen Nailor, Spencer Burford and Tyler Linderbaum.

These additions will not only help Mendoza hit the ground running when he takes over the starting job from veteran stopgap Kirk Cousins, but they will also allow Jeanty to finally realize his sky-high potential.

Having a much-improved offensive line clearing lanes and a passing attack that can keep defenses honest will do wonders for Jeanty's efficiency numbers, the main area in which he needs to show improvement in Year 2.

If Jeanty improves his yards per carry and yards per reception metrics while continuing to log a similar volume of touches and score at the same rate he did last season, the running back will be a shoo-in for his first Pro Bowl nod.

Slump: TE Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

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The Chicago Bears landed a foundational tight end in Colston Loveland with the No. 10 overall pick last year. He displayed immense potential as a rookie, shaking off a sluggish start to finish 2025 with 713 yards and six touchdowns on 58 receptions.

The door is open for further improvements after the Bears parted ways with one of their main pass-catchers in D.J. Moore. Chicago sent a player who accounted for 85 targets last year to the Buffalo Bills at the start of the offseason and brought in a pair of underwhelming replacements in the form of free-agent pickup Khalif Raymond and third-round draft pick Zavion Thomas.

Loveland may seem like an obvious candidate to see a massive increase over the 82 looks he logged as a rookie, but he probably won't become a target hog in a Ben Johnson-led offense. During his three-year tenure as the rival Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator, only one tight end—Sam LaPorta during his breakout 2023 rookie season—saw more than 83 targets in a season.

Even after Moore's exit, Chicago's head coach is more likely to task quarterback Caleb Williams with spreading the ball around relatively evenly throughout his remaining crop of pass-catchers rather than allocating a majority of those vacated looks to a single candidate.

Johnson deploys a system that leans heavily into two- or three-tight end sets, having utilized plenty of 12 and 13 personnel even before his organization onboarded another talented tight end in the form of rookie Day 2 pick Sam Roush.

With Cole Kmet still lingering around and Roush poised for some action—along with a projected uptick in looks for both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III—Loveland looks to be in line for another solid yet unspectacular campaign.

Don't count on Loveland having a major sophomore slump, but it's quite possible the second-year tight end fails to even surpass his rookie marks as he plays a familiar role in 2026.