2026 NBA Draft Lottery Full Odds and Teams with Most at Stake
The bottom-feeders of the 2025-26 NBA season will soon discover whether all of those losses were worth it.
It's ping-pong ball-picking time with the league converging for the annual lottery that gives hope to the otherwise hopeless. Or if the basketball gods are feeling particularly chaotic, it sometimes outfits a readymade winner with another coveted puzzle piece.
No one knows how things will play out until the process actually plays out this afternoon (3 p.m. ET on ABC), but we do know two things going in: the lottery odds carried into the event and which teams have the most at stake. Let's dig into both.
NBA Draft Lottery Odds
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While the lottery odds don't always reflect the biggest winners, here's where everyone sits entering the event.
Washington Wizards: 14% for No. 1 pick; 52.1% for top four
Indiana Pacers: 14% for No. 1 pick; 52.1% for top four
Brooklyn Nets: 14% for No. 1 pick; 52.1% for top four
Utah Jazz: 11.5% for No. 1 pick; 45.2% for top four
Sacramento Kings: 11.5% for No. 1 pick; 45.2% for top four
Memphis Grizzlies: 9.0% for No. 1 pick; 37.2% for top four
Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): 6.8% for No. 1 pick; 29.3% for top four
Dallas Mavericks: 6.7% for No. 1 pick; 29% for top four
Chicago Bulls: 4.5% for No. 1 pick; 20.3% for top four
Milwaukee Bucks: 0% for No. 1 pick; 13.9% for top four
Golden State Warriors: 2% for No. 1 pick; 9.4% for top four
Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): 1.5% for No. 1 pick; 7.1% for top four
Miami Heat: 1% for No. 1 pick; 4.8% for top four
Charlotte Hornets: 0.5% for No. 1 pick; 2.4% for top four
Indiana Pacers
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How much would anyone want to stake on a single flip of the coin? Because the same 50/50 odds of that toss are more or less Indiana's chances of either uniting with one of this celebrated draft class' top prospects or getting left out of this talent grab entirely.
It's the price the Pacers paid to add center Ivica Zubac from the Los Angeles Clippers at the trade deadline. Indy parted with a pick that was protected 1-4 and 10-30, meaning it would only change hands if it landed between picks Nos. 5-9. If it doesn't convey now, it'll become an unprotected first-round pick in 2031.
With the right lottery luck, the Pacers could potentially shift next season's title race. Remember, they were in the NBA Finals when Tyrese Haliburton went down last season, so they clearly belong in the contender conversation. They gap year-ed through the 2025-26 season, but they should be ready to relaunch next season—perhaps with a prized prosect like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cameron Boozer added to the mix.
Or maybe they slide a bit and wind up gifting the fifth or sixth pick to the Clippers. Then, they'd be left hoping a healthy Haliburton really is all that's missing from their championship formula. And maybe he is, but they certainly didn't look one player away during this 63-loss laugher of a season.
Washington Wizards
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The Wizards seem eager to end their yearslong tank job. And after all of this losing, who could blame them? The most competitive they've been in the past three campaigns was in 2024-25, when they "only" lost 64 games.
Even if you're fully focused on the future, that level of losing can't be fun. And Washington seems understandably tired of it. It made deals for Anthony Davis and Trae Young this season, or not at all the moves that a long-term rebuilder would make.
Young will give this group better offensive direction. Davis could step in as the backbone this defense desperately needs. Still, it feels like a blue-chip prospect is missing from the mix. If the aim is to be more than pretty good, the talent base has to expand, and this is the best chance to do it—both because this draft class looks loaded and for the real possibility the Wizards won't be drafting this high again for a while.
Washington, which can't fall lower than fifth, would still love to fetch a jackpot prize here. This draft looks loaded, but it probably isn't opening with five consecutive fortune-changers. There are tiers within even the top tiers, and the Wizards need this pick to deliver a true needle-mover.
