Predicting Which High Seeds in 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Won't Reach 2027 Big Dance
Even as expectations are relative, making the NCAA tournament in any given season is a positive accomplishment.
Yes, some programs are hardly satisfied with an early exit. Winning the national championship is the goal, and somewhere around 10-15 schools each season have a rational belief of hoisting that trophy.
But it certainly stings never to have a chance, either.
Every year, a top-seeded team from the previous season does not return to March Madness. This recent year, it happened to Auburn—a No. 1 seed in 2025—along with Maryland, Oregon, Memphis and others.
Although the transfer portal may change these feelings soon, we're taking an initial crack at projecting the next wave of declines.
UCLA Bruins
1 of 5
2026 Seed: No. 7
Enjoy your bulletin-board material, Mick Cronin.
UCLA has landed on the No. 7 seed line in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Overall, during his tenure, the Bruins have missed the Big Dance only in 2024—and were solidly a bubble team in 2020.
Looking ahead to 2026-27, though, UCLA needs to replace top scorer Tyler Bilodeau, key guards Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark and a few reserves.
Trent Perry and Eric Dailey, who both averaged 11-plus points, are slated to return. So is Xavier Booker, a key piece of the rotation.
Beyond them, it's a guessing game right now. Brandon Williams and Eric Freeny were low-minute regulars. UCLA's incoming class of 4-star forward Joe Philon and 3-star center Javonte Floyd makes for modest excitement.
If the Bruins add a few significant transfers, the roster might have enough. UCLA absolutely is capable of signing a splashy lead scorer, for example.
For now, UCLA faces an uphill battle to a March Madness bid.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2 of 5
2026 Seed: No. 6
You think the program is hurting right now? Whew, if this happens, there will be uncomfortable feelings all around Chapel Hill.
At this moment, North Carolina's outlook hinges on Henri Veesaar.
Will the productive forward enter the NBA draft? Will he transfer? Or will he stay at UNC, which already knows it must replace Seth Trimble due to eligibility, seven transfers (to date) and presumably NBA-bound Caleb Wilson.
New coach Michael Malone was a tactician at the highest level, so that undoubtedly helps the Tar Heels. However, building a college team is different.
Malone could ace this fresh test! Given the list of transfers, he has an opportunity to craft a roster that aligns with his vision. It's not like the appeal of the UNC brand has disappeared for players. The Heels have signed 5-star forward Maximo Adams with a commitment from 5-star guard Dylan Mingo.
Still, the challenge is clear—and a departure from Veesaar would complicate it.
Vanderbilt Commodores
3 of 5
2026 Seed: No. 5
Similar to UNC, Vanderbilt is waiting on a major decision.
Tyler Tanner put together a first-team All-SEC campaign and propelled the Commodores to 27 wins, the second-best season in program history. If he's back, Vandy has a tremendous top player to build around.
No matter his decision, this is a near-total rebuild anyway. Tyler Nickel, Duke Miles, Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington all used up their eligibility. AK Okereke can only return with a waiver. Five others, including Tyler Harris and Frankie Collins, have entered the portal as well.
Tanner, a potential NBA departure, hasn't announced his intentions. Besides, he might go through the pre-draft process and not choose a path until late May.
Vandy's revamped roster is already a concern. Watching Tanner head to the NBA would be a bittersweet dagger.
Wisconsin Badgers
4 of 5
2026 Seed: No. 5
Wisconsin always figures it out, right? Since the 2017-18 implosion, the Badgers have reached every NCAA tournament—and would have in 2020—except in 2023, when they still won 20 games.
Nevertheless, here we go again.
Leading scorer Nick Boyd is out of eligibility. Co-star John Blackwell has entered the portal. Aleksas Bieliauskas, a freshman starter, is transferring as key shooter Braeden Carrington and reserve Andrew Rohde are graduating.
Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp are a solid pairing in the frontcourt, but UW otherwise is thin on returning contributors.
If international signees Jackson Ball and Owen Foxwell calm the perimeter worries, that's a massive boost to the Badgers. Plus, even if Blackwell does not reverse course, Wisconsin has the resources to land a couple of impactful guards.
History says UW will be competitive. That doesn't make it a simple process.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5 of 5
2026 Seed: No. 4
The best season in program history saw Nebraska win a record 28 games, including the first-ever March Madness victory (and a second one!).
On the heels of that Sweet 16 run, will the Cornhuskers sustain their success?
As with UNC and Vandy, the conversation begins with the star. Pryce Sandfort was the catalyst of Nebraska's ascent. The Iowa transfer played himself into the 2026 NBA draft discussion. He might stay, he may leave.
The key for Nebraska—as seniors Rienk Mast, Jamarques Lawrence and Sam Hoiberg depart—is player retention. The roster already took a hit when starting forward Berke Buyuktuncel entered the transfer portal.
Braden Frager had a solid freshman year. Connor Essegian should be back after an injury sidelined him in 2025-26. Cale Jacobsen is a promising guard, too.
But if Sandfort moves on, Nebraska's encore may be a quiet one.
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