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2026 Men's NCAA Tournament, B/R Expert Predictions for the Elite Eight
Iowa has crashed the Elite Eight party, but the remainder of the teams left in the 2026 men's NCAA tournament are a familiar crew.
The storylines are loaded, highlighted by a blueblood clash in the East Region between No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Connecticut. Top-seeded programs Arizona and Michigan are on the verge of reaching the Final Four, as well.
Ultimately, four coveted trips to Indianapolis are at stake this weekend.
Bleacher Report's college basketball crew—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Joel Reuter—is back again to preview and predict the Elite Eight.
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois
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Details: Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: The clash between Big Ten adversaries is a chance for Iowa (1980) or Illinois (2005) to end decades-long Final Four droughts.
Iowa Wins If: Bennett Stirtz leads the team, yet complementary options keep producing. Kael Combs popped for 15 points against Clemson, then Alvaro Folguerias went for 14 points with the winning shot to upset top-seeded Florida and Tate Sage tallied a season-high 19 points in the victory over Nebraska. Throw in Tavion Banks' 20 opposite UF, and the Hawkeyes have surging depth. It must show up.
Illinois Wins If: Well, that defense has an encore. Illinois has been an offense-driven team all season but, in the Sweet 16, held Houston to 34.4 percent from the floor and only six offensive rebounds. Illinois didn't have a great scoring day itself yet controlled the showdown because of the defense. That would overwhelm Iowa.
Star to Watch: Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler has reinforced his All-American billing with three strong tournament games. The likely NBA-bound guard is averaging 15 points, eight rebounds, four assists and 2.3 combined steals and blocks while shooting 50 percent from the perimeter.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Illinois
Kerry Miller: Illinois
Joel Reuter: Illinois
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona
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Details: Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Conference tourney champions from the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively, Purdue and Arizona are meeting for the first time since the 2023 Indy Classic—with a trip to Indianapolis at stake.
Purdue Wins If: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and a few others are raining threes with efficiency. Unless the Boilers have a spectacular day on defense, they'll be chasing a high Arizona point total. After a 4-of-20 long-range showing in the narrow win over Texas—and Loyer buried all four triples—Purdue needs its star seniors and players like C.J. Cox, Jack Benter, Omer Mayer and Gicarri Harris to step up.
Arizona Wins If: The offense's elite two-point scoring takes advantage of a very favorable matchup. Arizona averages the second-most shots inside the arc, while Purdue is just 279th nationally in defending them.
Star to Watch: Potentially a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA draft, Koa Peat is a tough matchup for this Purdue defense. Peat is not a perimeter threat, but he'll happily live in mid-range and post areas as a scorer and respectable passer. He just netted 21 points in the rout of Arkansas.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Purdue
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Michigan
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Details: Sunday at 2:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Tennessee is aiming to break its Final Four seal as top-seeded Michigan eyes an expected place in the final weekend.
Tennessee Wins If: Defense, defense, defense—and just enough offense. Tennessee, like Purdue, certainly does not want a high-scoring affair. Rick Barnes' team needs to slam the brakes on this matchup's tempo and limit possessions in order to avoid a third straight Elite Eight elimination.
Michigan Wins If: The depth and versatility of the Wolverines' offense shines. Given the stinginess of UT's defense, Michigan cannot rely on Yaxel Lendeborg alone to overpower the Vols. Yet in the Sweet 16, four players registered at least 16 points. Don't expect a repeat of that number specifically, but U-M's seven-deep rotation must be able to produce a few significant scorers.
Star to Watch: Bishop Boswell dished eight assists in the victory over Iowa State, but Ja'Kobi Gillespie is generally the driving force of Tennessee's offense. He struggled from the perimeter on Friday but still had 16 points in the win. It's tough to see an upset possibility for the Vols without a great showing from Gillespie.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Joel Reuter: Michigan
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 1 Duke
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Details: Sunday at 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two of college basketball's most iconic programs, Connecticut and Duke are preparing to meet in the NCAA tournament for the first time since UConn won a Final Four clash in 2004.
UConn Wins If: The physical defense can prevent a true secondary scorer. Cameron Boozer will probably hit 20-something for Duke, but he alone is not enough to carry the Blue Devils. If the Huskies can avoid a 20-point outburst from someone else—whether that's Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster or otherwise—they should be in decent position to outlast the Blue Devils.
Duke Wins If: Those complementary pieces avoid a cold night and Tarris Reed Jr. does not control the interior. Duke did a fantastic job containing St. John's, one of the nation's top offensive rebounding teams. That's been a strength for Duke, but it must continue to happen in these one-game samples.
Star to Watch: Boozer is the best player on the court, but Reed has been riding an absolute heater in March Madness. He destroyed Furman for 31 points and 27 rebounds, posted a double-double against UCLA and scored 20 points on Michigan State.
Predictions
David Kenyon: UConn
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke
