5 NFL Contract Extensions That Teams Would be Smart to Avoid

With the initial waves of free agency done and the draft still weeks away, the 2026 NFL offseason has hit a lull.

Contract extensions have made for some of the biggest stories of the past week, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba becoming the league's highest-paid receiver after signing a four-year, $168.8 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks.

Smith-Njigba almost certainly won't be the last player to ink a blockbuster extension this offseason. Several other standouts, including fellow top-flight wideout Puka Nacua, are eligible for new deals and could receive one before the 2026 season kicks off.

Not every name up for an extension should get one, though.

While roster cohesion and player development are important components in constructing a Super Bowl contender, teams should be wary of overpaying inconsistent players or committing long-term to injury-prone stars.

NFL general managers must walk a fine line, as their jobs could be on the line if a player they declined to extend goes on to star for another club. Saddling their franchise with bad contracts could also result in a dismissal, so it's vital to choose wisely when it comes to issuing big extensions.

With that in mind, here's a look at five players who have either recently become eligible for an extension or are playing out the final year of their current deal who teams would be smart to avoid.

S Brian Branch, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

The Detroit Lions knocked their second-round selection of Brian Branch out of the park three years ago. But despite an impressive start to the safety's career, it won't be an easy call to put a market value extension on the table this offseason.

Branch, a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate and Pro Bowler in his second season, suffered a potential career-altering Achilles rupture late in the 2025 campaign.

The Alabama product wasn't having his best season before the Week 14 injury—a one-game suspension for striking Kansas City Chiefs wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster was a lowlight—and now isn't likely to be back on the field until the latter half of the 2026 campaign at the earliest.

Detroit had relied heavily on Branch's trademark versatility, deploying him across the secondary and in the box to plug holes in their defense. The safety has the size (6'0", 203 pounds) and athleticism to match up well with almost anyone, although it now remains to be seen if he'll remain as impactful coming off a major injury.

The Lions will have to make shrewd financial decisions to retain all the homegrown talent that helped them burst out as a contender under head coach Dan Campbell.

Injuries and poor play cost the team a playoff berth in 2025, and much of the young core the club leaned on to reach the 2024 NFC Championship Game has either recently signed massive extensions or is due to get paid in the near future.

Fitting in an extension for Branch—estimated by Spotrac to ring up at $20 million per year—while also keeping enough flexibility to re-up critical talents like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell will be difficult. The club also has a similarly tough decision to make on Sam LaPorta, the 2023 Pro Bowler who has regressed in each of the last two seasons and suffered a significant injury of his own last year.

Rather than rush to pay Branch, Detroit would be wise to delay an extension and wait to see what he can contribute in 2026.

Should the 24-year-old fail to get healthy or looks to have lost a step upon his return, it could drastically impact the type of deal he'll net on the open market.

RB Breece Hall, New York Jets

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

The New York Jets kept Breece Hall off the open market by exercising the franchise tag on their star running back this offseason.

While the maneuver ensures Hall will play for Gang Green in 2026, the team will have to carefully consider if he's worth keeping around beyond the upcoming campaign.

Hall once appeared to be a cornerstone worth building around, beginning his career at a terrific pace. Shortly after being selected by the Jets in the second round of the 2022 draft, the Iowa State product racked up a whopping 681 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage on 99 touches in just seven games. However, an ACL tear cut that breakout rookie season short.

While Hall returned in time to start the 2023 season and appeared in all 17 games—and missing just two contests in total since the injury—his effectiveness was diminished. He averaged 1.6 fewer yards per touch as a sophomore and continued to regress in Year 3, dipping to 5.1 yards per touch.

The 24-year-old had a bit of a resurgence in 2025, breaching 1,000 yards on the ground for the first time in his career and bringing his yards per carry average to its highest level since his rookie year. New York opted to retain him at the franchise-tag cost of $14.3 million for the upcoming season, but it may be time to part ways in 2027.

New York's inability to reach the playoffs has irked Hall. After the Jets were eliminated from postseason contention for the 15th consecutive year, the back publicly expressed frustration with the organization's lack of success.

It's unlikely Gang Green will snap its league-worst playoff drought this season. DraftKings Sportsbook placed the odds of the team making the postseason at +650—the third-worst in the NFL—and set a lowly over-under of total wins at just 5.5.

With the Jets mired in mediocrity and Hall racking up mileage—he's now logged 943 touches since entering the league—a breakup seems inevitable next offseason.

Keeping Hall around on a market value deal, valued by Spotrac at more than $10 million per season, won't make much sense for a rebuilding franchise.

WR Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

AP Photo/Bart Young

The Denver Broncos have spent the offseason trying to build on their AFC Championship Game appearance by adding key veterans who can augment a youthful core, but the club should be cautious about making a lengthy commitment to Marvin Mims Jr.

Although the wideout quickly emerged as an impactful return man—earning his second Pro Bowl nod and making the All-Pro team in 2024—the 2023 second-rounder has consistently underwhelmed as a receiver.

Mims has had ample opportunity to seize a key role in the passing game, but he has yet to reel in more than 40 receptions in a single season. He peaked with 503 receiving yards in 2024 and regressed to tally a career-low 322 receiving yards this past year.

Mims went from being the second-most productive receiver on the roster two years ago to falling behind Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram, Pat Bryant and RJ Harvey in receiving yardage in 2025.

There's little chance he ascends the pecking order in 2026, either, given Denver made a marquee trade to land a prolific pass-catcher in Jaylen Waddle.

With Mims set to be relegated to mostly special teams contributions, it will be tough for the Broncos to justify retaining him on a new deal.

Fellow standout returner/receiver Rashid Shaheed set the market for this type of skill set by inking a sizable three-year, $51 million extension with the Seattle Seahawks.

Given rising costs of special teams aces, Denver would be wiser to allocate those resources to more pressing areas of the roster to help get over the Super Bowl hump.  

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

It wasn't long ago that the Houston Texans appeared to have found a franchise quarterback who they could build around for the long haul. Things have since hit a snag and the team now must weigh its options at the position.

C.J. Stroud had a fantastic first season, winning 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and standing out as one of the NFL's brightest young talents. He was a home run selection for the Texans at No. 2 overall, racking up over 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns while boasting a league-best interception rate.

However, that season remains the high-water mark for Stroud.

While Houston has reached the postseason and won a Wild Card Round game in all three of Stroud's NFL seasons—and even matched a franchise record with 12 wins in 2025—the Texans have relied on an elite defense to do the heavy lifting in recent years. The signal-caller has seen his passing yardage and touchdown numbers regress in each of the past two seasons, while turnover problems that didn't exist in Year 1 have reared their ugly head.

Although the 24-year-old managed to shake off a trio of giveaways to guide his squad past a depleted Pittsburgh Steelers opponent in the Wild Card round, he hit rock-bottom during the following week against the New England Patriots.

With a chance to take Houston to its first-ever AFC Championship Game on the line, the quarterback only completed 20 of 47 throws for 212 yards and one touchdown. He was picked off four times in the contest—one fewer than his interception tally across 15 rookie starts—and choked away a winnable game.

A massive extension for Stroud that once seemed inevitable now seems borderline irresponsible. Houston's brass has publicly backed the quarterback—GM Nick Caserio shut down trade rumors last month—while still remaining quiet on the topic of a new deal.

Stroud has a Spotrac projected market value of $51.6 million per season, a hefty number for a quarterback who has been wildly inconsistent outside of his breakout rookie campaign.

He's shown the potential to be an upper-echelon starter, but his brutal postseason performances should have Houston wary of committing that type of money over an extended period.

QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Despite the significant progress Bryce Young made in 2025—including career-best marks in completion rate, passing yardage and touchdown throws—it would be imprudent for the Carolina Panthers to further commit to the signal-caller.

Even after riding the high of the franchise's first playoff appearance in nearly a decade, the 24-year-old still must prove he can perform at a high level with more consistency.

Despite Young's growth, the Panthers didn't even post a winning season last year. The team went 8-8 in his starts and 8-9 overall, narrowly capturing an NFC South title—the league's weakest division—to sneak into the postseason.

Carolina put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round, but still shouldn't be considered a serious contender.

DraftKings Sportsbook listed Carolina at +220 to reach the playoffs in 2026 and set the club's over-under for wins at 7.5—one of the lowest totals in the league.

While there are promising pieces in place such as reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year winner Tetairoa McMillan, Young hasn't shown an ability to lift this roster in a meaningful manner. His pedestrian 3,011 passing yards ranked No. 21 in the league and his 63.6 percent completion rate leaves something to be desired.

General manager Brandt Tilis has praised Young's development but also stated that there haven't been any discussions about an extension. Tilis admitted that the team is "still evaluating" the 24-year-old and doesn't appear to be rushing to put a contract offer on the table.

Spotrac placed a $37.2 million annual valuation on Young—well below the elite signal-callers and similar to the deals Geno Smith and Sam Darnold recently inked. While this may seem affordable compared to the $50-plus million per year other quarterbacks are netting, it's enough money to set the Panthers back if Young regresses in 2026.

Carolina should stay the course and continue to take a "wait-and-see" approach with its polarizing passer. It may end up costing the club a good bit more to keep Young should he take a leap in Year 4, but the negatives of extending a draft bust far outweigh the potential savings an early extension may offer.