Every MLB Team's Best-Case Outcome For 2026 Season
Some view anything less than a World Series every season as a disappointment. Frankly, unless you are a fan of the Los Angeles Dodgers, that's not a realistic mindset to have.
Certainly, a handful of teams, give or take, are World Series-or-bust every year. But there is such a thing as having a great season without it ending in a parade, particularly if your club has taken a major step forward relative to where you were a year ago.
With that in mind, here's the best-case outcome for every MLB team in 2026:
AL East
1 of 6
Toronto Blue Jays: Finish off a World Series title
The Blue Jays were two outs from winning their first World Series since 1993 last fall, before losing an epic Game 7 in extra innings to the Yankees. It can be difficult to regroup after such a crushing loss when you have to restart at 0-0 the next season.
If any group is equipped to do that, though, it's John Schneider's Blue Jays, who added ace Dylan Cease, corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto and reliever Tyler Rogers this winter. They did lose two-time AL hits leader Bo Bichette in free agency, but a Toronto team that returns Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland should be among the best teams in the junior circuit.
The hardest challenge for the Blue Jays might be fending off the other teams in a loaded AL East, although if they add another bat and/or shutdown closer this summer, Toronto will be set up well to make a deep playoff run if they get to the postseason in any form.
New York Yankees: Stars stay healthy, leading to first title since 2009
The Yankees would be the favorites to win most divisions, but the AL East has such a great group of teams that you look for any possible negatives. For the Yankees, that would be the health of their stars.
What will Gerrit Cole, now 35, look like after missing all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery? Can Giancarlo Stanton—who, at last check, was having trouble opening a bag of chips—remain an offensive force in his age-36 season? Do the Yankees get anything out of 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil after he followed up a lost 2025 with a rough spring training? Can Anthony Volpe make an impact when he returns from offseason surgery on his partially torn left labrum? Does Carlos Rodón hit the ground running when he comes back from an October procedure to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow? Heck, we take Aaron Judge's greatness for granted, but the only thing that's ever slowed him down is health.
In the best-case scenario, where everyone is healthy—particularly in their starting rotation—the Yankees could win the World Series in 2026. But health is what could deter Aaron Boone's club this season, particularly in such a talented division.
Boston Red Sox: Great pitching carries them to deep postseason run
We don't know if there's quite enough offensive firepower around Roman Anthony for the Red Sox to win it all in 2026, but Alex Cora's squad projects to be a very tough out if they reach the playoffs.
On top of last year's AL Cy Young Award runner-up Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox rotation now includes Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez, both of whom were acquired by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow this offseason. Brayan Bello, on paper, is one of the best No. 4 starters in the sport right now.
Additionally, the Red Sox project to have a strong bullpen, anchored by Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock. It could get even stronger if some of their starting rotation surplus turns into bullpen help in the postseason.
First things first, the Red Sox have to earn a postseason spot. If they do, good luck facing their pitching in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays: Sneak into the playoffs, despite playing in baseball's best division
In a division that could legitimately produce four playoff teams, Kevin Cash's Rays might end up being the odd man out.
At the same time, the Rays often feel undermanned entering the season, only to wind up competing for or reaching the postseason.
They have one of the sport's elite young power hitters in Junior Caminero, who clubbed 45 homers in his age-21 season, and could be a superstar if he cuts down on the number of double plays he grounds into and draws a few more walks.
For the Rays to be a playoff team, two-time All-Star Shane McClanahan is going to have to make an impact in a starting rotation that will also include Drew Rasmussen. The 28-year-old hasn't pitched in either of the last two seasons, but was one of the best starters in baseball across the first 74 starts of his career, posting a 3.02 ERA between 2021 and 2023.
Whether the Rays have enough offense around Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz is fair to wonder, but the Rays always seem to find a way to be competitive.
Baltimore Orioles: Worst to first
A year ago, the Blue Jays went worst to first in the AL East, ultimately reaching the World Series. There's no reason that, after an active offseason from president of baseball operations Mike Elias, the Orioles shouldn't have a similar goal in 2026.
Elias added some thump with the acquisitions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, while AL Rookie of the Year candidate Samuel Basallo has massive power potential himself. Gunnar Henderson is one of the game's elite players, and if the O's can get Adley Rutschman back on track, this is going to be a scary lineup.
The starting rotation may not have a guy that feels like a Game 1 World Series starter, but Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin are a pretty solid group. Staying healthy will be the biggest test for the rotation.
We're bullish on the chances that the O's return to the postseason in Craig Albernaz's first year on the job following a disastrous 75-87 campaign in 2025.
AL Central
2 of 6
Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt wins Manager of the Year Again
Stephen Vogt has won AL Manager of the Year twice in as many seasons of the job in Cleveland, including a year ago when the Guardians won their division despite finishing the season with a minus-six run differential.
For the Guardians to hold off the Tigers to win their third consecutive AL Central title, it might take another masterful performance from Vogt, who has seemed in two years to get more out of his roster than could reasonably be predicted.
José Ramírez is a future Hall of Famer, and there are some other pieces on the roster—such as Steven Kwan, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Cade Smith—that just about every team would like to have. However, the whole is going to have to be greater than the sum of its parts once again for the Guardians to reach October.
Detroit Tigers: Elite pitching leads them to a World Series
Tarik Skubal is the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner, and with another dominant season, has the opportunity to set himself up for a major payday in free agency next winter.
Who knows if the Tigers will ultimately be serious players for Skubal after 2026, but with him at the head of their rotation for another season, A.J. Hinch's squad has a very high ceiling.
President of baseball operations Scott Harris pounced on the opportunity to sign Framber Valdez when he remained on the free-agent market this offseason until February. Skubal and Valdez will form one of the best one-two punches in baseball.
With the rest of the staff, things aren't as certain. Can 43-year-old Justin Verlander replicate a strong second half in 2025 that saw him post a 2.99 ERA? Will Casey Mize be more like the All-Star pitcher he was in the first half of last season, as opposed to the guy who had a 4.92 ERA following the Midsummer Classic? Is Jack Flaherty able to pitch closer to the 3.85 FIP he had last season, as opposed to the 4.64 ERA?
If enough things come up roses for the Tigers, they are going to be one of the top World Series contenders in the junior circuit.
Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone is one of top breakout stars of 2026
President of baseball operations J.J. Picollo tried to address Kansas City's longstanding issues with getting component offensive production in the outfield by adding Starling Marte, Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins in the offseason.
The piece in the outfield who could really change the way we view Kansas City's ceiling is Jac Caglianone. The former first-round pick flashed prodigious power in the minors, but struggled over his first 62 MLB games, posting just a .532 OPS. However, the 23-year-old impressed for Team Italy during the World Baseball Classic, which is perhaps indicative of an incoming breakout season.
If Caglianone takes a major step forward, the Royals could very well have a playoff-caliber offense, considering they are currently led by the trio of Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez.
Minnesota Twins: Get a great trade return this summer for remaining stars
Certainly, it would be nice for the Twins to get a breakout season in 2026 from someone like Mick Abel, the 24-year-old righty acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies last summer in the Jhoan Duran trade.
There isn't a scenario, though, where we're talking about the Twins as a playoff team in 2026. So this season will become about continuing to build for the future.
According to B/R's Joel Reuter, the Twins have four of the top 100 prospects in baseball entering the 2026 season with OF Walker Jenkins (10), OF Emmanuel Rodríguez (61), SS Kaelen Culpepper (71) and C Eduardo Tait (79).
Getting more impact pieces if they trade some combination of Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, Bailey Ober and Royce Lewis this summer would help the Twins continue to feel like they are building a future contender.
Chicago White Sox: Continue to move in the right direction
The White Sox lost 102 games in 2025, which for most teams would represent a disastrous campaign. However, it actually felt like a step in the right direction on the south side, considering Chicago had lost a staggering 121 losses the prior season.
In Will Veneable's second year as manager, it's still not a realistic goal for the Chi Sox to be a playoff team. However, with Munetaka Murakami, Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery and Shane Smith, you can start to see the makings of a core. If that group continues to show promise, it will be a successful season.
Frankly, if two seasons after losing 121 games the White Sox look a year away from being a year away, that would actually speak well to the job that general manager Chris Getz is doing.
AL West
3 of 6
Seattle Mariners: Win World Series
The Mariners came up a win short of their first World Series appearance in 2025. There's no reason they couldn't become the final active franchise to reach the Fall Classic in 2026.
While the M's did see Eugenio Suárez depart in free agency, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto re-signed Josh Naylor and acquired the versatile Brendan Donovan to join a lineup led by superstars Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez.
Seattle has a lineup equipped to make the best of arguably the best starting rotation in baseball, with quite the quartet in Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby. Dan Wilson's bullpen should be pretty good as well, as Jose A. Ferrer was a strong offseason addition to an arm barn anchored by Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash.
As all the AL East teams beat up on each other, the Mariners should be able to win their division with relative ease, setting them up to potentially reach and win the World Series for the first time ever.
Houston Astros: Pitching is strong enough to return to the postseason
If Yordan Alvarez bounces back after a right-hand fracture that limited him to just 48 games last season, an Astros lineup that also will include Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Isaac Paredes is going to hit. Imagine if Christian Walker bounces back and/or Cam Smith has a breakout campaign on top of those four.
The biggest questions for Joe Espada's team come in the starting rotation behind Hunter Brown, who finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting last year. The aforementioned Valdez was allowed to leave in free agency. Is Tatsuya Imai ready to be a No. 2 starter in the majors? How high is the ceiling of Mike Burrows? Can Cristian Javier and/or Lance McCullers Jr. stay healthy?
In theory, the bullpen should be a strength for the Astros that could help them overcome some shortcomings in the rotation. However, six-time All-Star Josh Hader is going to open the season on the injured list with biceps inflammation, a troubling outcome after a shoulder strain prematurely ended his 2025 season. Bryan Abreu has closer stuff, but he's obviously better cast as the set-up man to Hader, particularly if the Astros aren't having starters consistently pitch deep into games and end up needing to lean on their bullpen.
2025 marked the first time that the Astros missed the playoffs since 2016. Whether they return to the postseason in 2026 will be dependent on how effective their pitching staff proves to be.
Texas Rangers: Veterans have offensive bounce-back seasons
Even after moving on from Adolis García, Marcus Semien and Jonah Heim this offseason, the success of the 2026 Rangers—or lack thereof—will be largely dependent on whether some of their veteran offensive pieces bounce back.
Joc Pederson posted an .850 OPS between 2022 and 2024, but then had a disastrous first season in Texas, posting a .614 OPS in 96 games. It feels like he has too much of a track record not to rebound in some manner in 2026.
Josh Jung looked like a budding star in 2023, when he hit 23 homers as a rookie for a team that went on to win a World Series. But it's a prove-it year for the 28-year-old former All-Star, who has a .693 OPS in 177 games over the last two seasons.
As a 20-year-old, Evan Carter hit .306 with a 1.048 OPS in his first 23 MLB games in 2023, before hitting .300 with a .917 OPS during a World Series run. Carter is still only 23 years old, but hasn't developed into the AL MVP candidate he looked like he could be when he first broke into the league, as he has a 101 OPS+ (100 is league average) since the start of the 2024 season.
There are other areas of concern in Arlington, such as the starting rotation's age and a lack of high-leverage arms in the bullpen. Still, the ability of these bats to get their careers back on track will be the biggest x-factor in Skip Schumaker's first season as manager.
Athletics: Offense carries them to winning record
Even if Luis Severino builds on the 3.10 ERA he posted over his final nine starts of 2025, the Athletics have a toxic mix of a lack of pitching talent in a stadium in Sutter Health Park that proved to be a bandbox a year ago.
With that said, there's plenty to be excited about with the A's, mostly surrounding an offense that looks ready to compete.
Again, the pitching is going to keep Mark Kotsay's club from being a playoff team, but if Lawrence Butler and/or Jeff McNeil bounce back offensively, the A's offense might be good enough to carry them to their first winning record since 2021.
Los Angeles Angels: Post first winning season since 2015
The Angels haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and haven't had a winning season since going 85-77 in 2015, when they were still called the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim."
It's probably not likely that they'll snap that first streak this year, but considering both first-year manager Kurt Suzuki and general manager Perry Minasian are only signed through the 2026 season, the second streak might need to be snapped for Arte Moreno not to clean house next offseason.
Between Mike Trout, Zach Neto and Jo Adell, there are some pieces that could make this a component offense, even after the loss of Taylor Ward. The starting rotation—particularly if Grayson Rodriguez is able to get healthy—could be much more stable than what the Angels have had in recent years when you consider José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi and Reid Detmers.
Until Ben Joyce returns, though, the bullpen is being led by Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano and Drew Pomeranz, which alone might be enough for the Halos not to post a winning record.
NL East
4 of 6
Philadelphia Phillies: Young additions help veteran team get over the hump
At this point, it is World Series or bust for the Phillies. It's been that way for a few seasons now.
Considering Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Nola will play this year at 33 years old—while Zack Wheeler (36 in May) and J.T. Realmuto (35 are even older—the clock is ticking for this team. They are in danger of being very similar to the Detroit Tigers teams Dave Dombrowski had in the early 2010s, which got very close but didn't quite win it all despite immense star power.
What the Phillies hope is that, in addition to a starting rotation now led by Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, the team's long-time prospect Andrew Painter finally is able to make an impact in 2026. Ditto for Opening Day center fielder Justin Crawford—yes, he's Carl's son—who has hit at every level in the minors. And if he can get his back healthy, third base prospect Aidan Miller could be in play at some point in 2026.
This era of the Phillies has largely been built through major signings and trades, but the trio of Painter, Crawford, and Miller could provide enough young energy to finally push the Phillies over the top.
New York Mets: Roster overhaul prevents second-half swoon
Where the Phillies have been accused of "running it back," David Stearns and the Mets did the opposite in the offseason.
Out are Alonso, McNeil, Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. In are Bichette, Semien, Freddy Peralta, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.
Are the Mets more talented than they were at the end of the 2025 season? That's an interesting sports-radio debate, but ultimately it doesn't really matter. The question is whether they can avoid collapsing the way they did after the All-Star Break a season ago, when Carlos Mendoza's squad followed up a 55-42 first half with a miserable 28-37 second half to miss the playoffs.
With the additions they've made to a lineup anchored by Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, along with Perlata and Nolan McLean at the top of the starting rotation, the Mets should be able to compete with the Phillies for the NL East title.
Miami Marlins: Strong 2025 finish carries over into 2026
Quietly, the Marlins went 35-32 after the All-Star Break a year ago, with Clayton McCullough's team finishing the season on a high note.
How much of that can carry over to 2026? That's fair to wonder, because the Marlins traded the oft-injured-but-very-talented Edward Cabrera to the Chicago Cubs. They didn't make any notable veteran additions to a lineup that needed it. Kyle Stowers—Miami's only All-Star in 2025—is going to open the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain.
Miami's best path towards posting a winning record—and perhaps even competing for a wild-card spot–is going to be behind its starting rotation.
Former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcántara started to look like himself down the stretch of 2025, posting a 3.33 ERA in the second half after a nightmarish first half saw him pitch to a 7.22 ERA.
Still only 22, Eury Pérez posted a 4.25 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in his first 95.1 innings back from Tommy John surgery last year after he missed the entirety of the 2024 campaign. The 6-foot-8, 200-pound righty has Cy Young potential.
Max Meyer is another talented arm who has struggled to stay healthy that will open the season in Miami's rotation. If the Fish also get an impact out of top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling in 2026, they have a chance to have a special rotation, which might mean they turn a strong finish in 2025 into a winning record in 2026.
Atlanta Braves: Disastrous Spring Training doesn't prove indicative of what's to come
Could things have gone worse for Walt Weiss in his first Spring Training as the manager in Atlanta?
Jurickson Profar was lost for the entire season after failing a performance-enhancing drug test for the second time in as many years.
Meanwhile, both Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep had arthroscopic elbow surgery in February to remove bone spurs from their pitching elbows, which will cause them to miss significant time to open the 2026 campaign.
As if things weren't dire enough in the rotation, Spencer Strider—who is trying to rediscover the ace form he showed in 2022 and 2023 before his second major elbow surgery—is going to begin the year on the injured list with an oblique strain.
Look, it's hard to rule out a team that has Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II in their lineup. But the spring left you with the feeling that the Braves are going to have a tough time bouncing back from their 76-86 season from a year ago.
Washington Nationals: James Wood and CJ Abrams are All-Stars again
One of the few pieces that the Nationals had to potentially be excited about in 2026 was righty Josiah Gray, once a key part of the trade return from the Los Angeles Dodgers for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. But after missing all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Gray has a flexor strain that will put him on the 60-day IL to open the year.
Let's face it, there's not a lot to be excited about right now in D.C., as a Nationals team that lost 96 games in 2025 is probably headed for 100-plus losses in the first year of the Paul Taboni/Blake Butera regime.
The best-case scenario is that both James Wood and CJ Abrams are All-Stars for the second time. However, if that happens, there will be temptation to trade both, particularly Abrams, who can become a free agent after the 2028 season. Wood is under team control through 2030, though it feels like the Nats might be that many years away from being able to surround their slugger with a contending team.
NL Central
5 of 6
Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff makes 25+ starts
After trading the aforementioned Peralta to the Mets in January, the Brewers are putting a lot of faith in Brandon Woodruff—who accepted a one-year, $22.025 million deal—being able to stay healthy in 2026.
To his credit, Woodruff was previously an All-Star in both 2019 and 2021, and had a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts a year ago, so there's no question he can pitch at a frontline level. But Woodruff has made just 23 starts since the beginning of the 2023 season, so it's natural to have skepticism about the durability of the 33-year-old.
The good news is that Woodruff will begin the 2025 season in a starting rotation that will also include Jacob Misiorowski, Brandon Sproat, Chad Patrick and Kyle Harrison. If he can stay healthy—and Quinn Priester makes an impact once he returns from a nerve issue that's causing pain in his wrist—the Brewers could once again have a strong rotation.
Two-time defending NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy has shown an ability to get more out of his team than expected, and, in theory, he has a pretty strong lineup and bullpen entering 2026. The rotation is where the questions exist, most notably with Woodruff.
Chicago Cubs: Rotation pans out as expected
Not many teams have a wider variance in possible outcomes with their starting rotation in 2025 than Craig Counsell and the Cubs.
In the best-case scenario, a rotation made up of Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon—with Justin Steele also working his way back from the left elbow surgery he had last April—could be really good.
At the same time, Boyd has a lengthy injury history and is coming off a career year in his age-34 season. Imanaga regressed from a 2.91 ERA and 3.72 FIP in his rookie year of 2024 to a 3.73 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 2025. Cabrera—acquired in an offseason trade with the Marlins—has front-of-the-rotation upside, but prior to pitching 137.2 innings for the Fish last year, he had never topped 100 frames in his career. And Steele is trying to return from a UCL revision repair. It would be foolish to bury your head in the sand and just assume everything will come up roses for the Cubs in 2026.
Certainly, though, if the rotation that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has assembled can stay healthy, there will be playoff games at Wrigley Field this October.
Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene returns midseason and another big bat steps forward
Even though they snuck into the playoffs in Terry Francona's first season as skipper in 2025, it's hard to feel great about the Reds right now.
They did add some much-needed lineup thump in the form of Eugenio Suárez, who returns to Cincinnati after the second 49-homer season of his career in 2025. Still, he alone isn't enough. The Reds badly need another star to emerge in their lineup to go with Elly De La Cruz. Matt McLain is probably the most logical pick, as he looked like a budding superstar during his first 89 MLB games in 2023, when he posted a 3.2 WAR. Since then, though, McLain missed all of 2024 recovering from left shoulder surgery, and then struggled in 2025, a season he finished with just a .643 OPS.
Despite playing their home games at the bandbox of Great American Ball Park, the strength of this team is the top of their starting rotation. However, Hunter Greene had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone chips in March, so he'll be out until at least July. Nick Lodolo did log 156.2 innings a year ago, but he's hardly been an ironman in his first four MLB seasons. So you could imagine things getting pretty thin behind All-Star Andrew Abbott relatively quickly.
For the Reds to make the playoffs for the second season in a row, another big bat has to step forward, while the rotation needs to stay healthier than most would predict it will.
St. Louis Cardinals: Young stars emerge in the lineup
In his first offseason as president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom traded away Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. It's clear he's trying to rebuild the club in his image, and based on his prior stops in Boston and Tampa Bay, that likely means a strong focus on the farm system.
Bloom is inheriting some interesting pieces, though, who could help to expedite the rebuild in St. Louis.
In terms of pitching, the RedBirds are a long way away. But if a few things go their way offensively in 2025, the long-term outlook in St. Louis could be pretty good given Bloom's ability to evaluate talent.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Young talent leads them to postseason for first time since 2015
Paul Skenes has had about as good a start to an MLB career as one could, as he followed up winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 by taking home the senior circuit's Cy Young in 2026. The 23-year-old is already the top pitcher in the NL by a comfortable margin.
The question then becomes how, for the good of the game, can we see Skenes in October? The Pirates did make some veteran additions this offseason, with general manager Ben Cherington acquiring Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O'Hearn and Gregory Soto in an attempt to improve a club that won 71 games last season.
Still, the ability for the Buccos to sneak into the postseason in 2026 is going to come down to how quickly some of the other young stars in the organization can come of age.
There are high hopes for 23-year-old righty Bubba Chandler, who is the No. 11 prospect in baseball, per B/R's Joel Rueter. Chandler posted a 2.66 FIP across his first 31.1 innings at the MLB level a year ago.
Even more exciting is the possibility of shortstop Konnor Griffin—B/R's No. 2 prospect in the sport—bursting onto the scene at some point this year. The 19-year-old won't open the season in the show, but he did homer four times this spring.
It might be too much of a jump for the Pirates to go from 91 losses a year ago to a playoff team in 2026, but it's at least a fun conversation to have as they unquestionably move in the right direction.
NL West
6 of 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: Three-peat
What else?
Dave Roberts is likely to pace Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and his veterans this regular season, rather than chasing the MLB record of 116 wins. What's more important is having a parade at the end of the year, and the Dodgers managed to have their second in a row last fall after winning "only" 93 regular-season games.
Still, this is a team with the additions of Díaz and Tucker that is likely to roll out of bed and come closer to winning 100 games, which may very well mean they earn a first-round bye and the top seed in the NL playoffs.
Can the Dodgers turn whatever regular-season success they have into being the first team since the 1998-2000 Yankees to three-peat? Anything short of that will be considered a failure.
San Diego Padres: Win top wild-card spot in NL
Considering they'll open the season with a starting rotation of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler, the Padres need to prove that they have the starters to be a playoff team.
Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery), Matt Waldron (Hemorrhoid surgery) and Griffin Canning (Achilles tendon rupture) may all factor into the 2026 equation for first-year manager Craig Stammen, but right now, his rotation looks pretty thin. That's even if you assume that Nick Pivetta can match a career year in 2025, and that Michael King is able to rebound after being limited to 15 starts last season.
If the Padres rotation does pan out, though, there's a lot to like about this team.
There aren't many better lineup trios in baseball than Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. Additionally, once Jason Adam returns from the quad surgery he had last September, the Padres should have a dominant trio at the back-end of their bullpen with him, Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón.
San Diego probably isn't going to seriously challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title, but if their starting rotation pans out, the Friars could absolutely compete for the top wild-card spot in the senior circuit.
San Francisco Giants: Reach postseason for first time since 2021
With a full season of Rafael Devers and the offseason additions of Harrison Bader and Luis Arráez, a Giants offense that also includes Willy Adames and Matt Chapman has a chance to be pretty good.
Where questions remain are on the pitching staff.
Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are a strong one-two punch in the rotation, but offseason signee Tyler Mahle hasn't topped 120.2 innings in a season since 2021. With Adrian Houser and Landon Roupp rounding out their rotation, it is fair to wonder if the Giants have the horses not only to get to the postseason, but to make noise if they do.
Additionally, the bullpen looks very thin outside of Ryan Walker and Erik Miller, particularly since Randy Rodriguez—who was one of the best relievers in baseball last year—is expected to miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Typically in San Francisco, the pitching is strong and there are questions about whether there will be enough offense. This year, the script might be flipped, as the Giants try to return to the postseason for the first time since president of baseball operations Buster Posey's last season as a player.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Get enough pitching to be a wild-card contender
Last June was disastrous for the Diamondbacks, as ace Corbin Burnes and the club's top two relievers—AJ Puk and Justin Martinez—all had Tommy John surgery. Not only did that knock them out for the remainder of 2025, but it also means they'll each miss a significant chunk of 2026.
Mike Hazen and the Snakes did bring back both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in free agency, although it's unclear what can be expected from either. Gallen did still log 192 innings last year, but has pitched to a 4.31 ERA and 4.01 FIP since the start of the 2024 season. Kelly, meanwhile, is 37 years old and opening the first season of a two-year, $40 million deal on the injured list with back tightness.
With Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Gerlado Perdomo, the Diamondbacks do still have a ton to like in their lineup. And to the credit of manager Torey Lovullo, the Diamondbacks managed to stay in wild-card contention down to the final week of the season, despite the aforementioned pitching injuries and selling at the trade deadline.
So there's reason to think the DBacks will be a tough out in 2026, but there just might not be enough pitching to get back to the postseason.
Colorado Rockies: Start to move in the right direction
This one might seem uncreative, but in the first year of the Paul DePodesta Era, just managing not to be historically bad—as they were in a 119-loss campaign in 2025—might be as good as it gets in Denver.
DePodesta did sign three veteran starters this offseason in Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano. None of them—or Opening Day starter Kyle Freeland—are going to compete for the NL Cy Young Award, but there's definitely value in eating innings on a bad team.
Hunter Goodman won the NL Silver Slugger Award last year, emerging as one of the best catchers in baseball by hitting 31 home runs and posting an .843 OPS. Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle are strong defenders who have had inconsistent offensive outputs early in their respective careers, so if they move in the right direction at the plate, that would be a positive takeaway in 2026.
The most problematic thing for the Rockies is that, despite losing 100 games three years in a row, they still seem years away. There are very few building blocks on their MLB roster, while B/R's Joel Reuter says shortstop Ethan Holliday (50) and outfielder Charlie Condon (76) are their only top 100 prospects. So it's not as though the tide is about to turn in Colorado.
But hey, if they lose 103 games instead of 119 this year, that would actually be a positive.
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