4 NHL Free Agents Who Will Get Overpaid During the 2026 Offseason

There is an important lesson we need to start learning when it comes to projecting future free agent classes in the NHL: Do not plan too far in advance.

Just because a potential free agent class looks exciting and full of star power a year or two out does not mean any of those players are going to be available when it comes time for them to reach free agency. Most teams go out of their way to keep their stars. It is even easier now that the salary cap is rapidly increasing.

The combination of those two factors has left the potential 2026 class of free agents looking alarmingly thin in terms of impact talent.

Free agency is always a risky move because you get into bidding wars for players that have already played their best hockey for somebody else, while the teams that knew them best did not go out of their way to keep them. That does not mean you can never find good players on the open market, but you have to be smart about it.

This summer could be a significant obstacle in that regard, as teams have big money to spend but not many impact players to spend it on. There could be some costly decisions made. So let's take a look ahead at the potential 2026 class of unrestricted free agents and analyze some of the more risky investments that could be made.

Darren Raddysh, Tampa Bay Lightning

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There are not many teams in the NHL that are better at finding diamonds in the rough than the Tampa Bay Lightning, and they did it again with Raddysh. Undrafted, Raddysh worked his way up through the minor leagues and the organization and became a regular on the Lightning defense at the start of the 2023-24 season. It has worked out tremendously well for both him and the team.

After two very solid seasons, he has had a true breakthrough season in 2025-26 and is one of the top-scoring defensemen in the league. It is a perfectly timed career year, and given the state of the free agent market, especially for a defenseman, he is well-positioned to cash in significantly this offseason.

It will be great for him.

It will just be a little risky for the team that does it.

It is not that Raddysh can not continue to be a good player, because he very well might. At least for another couple of seasons. It is just the reality that there has to be some concern over his ability to repeat his 2025-26 performance on a different team, with a different supporting cast, and without him scoring on more than 10 percent of his shots on goal. That is a high number for a defenseman, and more than double what he did over the previous two seasons.

Add in the fact that he is going to be 31 years old next season, and it might make sense for a team to try and find the next Darren Raddysh. That is probably what Tampa Bay will do.

Anthony Mantha, Pittsburgh Penguins

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When it comes to the 2025 NHL offseason and free agent signing period, there might not have been a better value signing than the Pittsburgh Penguins' addition of Anthony Mantha on a one-year, $2.5 million contract.

At the time, the mindset seemed pretty clear. With the Penguins beginning what looked to be a major rebuilding season, Mantha seemed to be a bargain signing whose value they could boost in an effort to trade at the deadline for future assets. It is exactly what they did with Anthony Beauvillier a year ago, flipping him for a second-round draft pick.

Instead, the Penguins have become a playoff contender, with Mantha playing a major role. He has already set new career highs in goals and total points, and has been a perfect addition to their top-nine forward group.

As far as potential 2026 unrestricted free agents go, his 26 goals (entering play on Monday) are tied for second among that group, while his 56 total points are tied for fourth among that group.

He has always been an intriguing player due to his size and skill combination, and he has had moments where he has been an impact player. Injuries have held him back. His time with the Washington Capitals was not the fit they had hoped for. But this is hardly the first time he has produced and been a very good player.

The question now becomes, what does this season mean for his future outlook? Is he capable of doing it again?

Given how good a fit he has been with the Penguins, it would make sense for them to look into bringing him back on a shorter-term deal. They also have the salary cap space to make it work, even if it is a slightly riskier move or an overpay.

But will Mantha be open to a shorter-term deal? Or will he have an opportunity to turn this career season, combined with a rising salary cap environment, into a long-term deal? That is where the potential overpay and risky investment come in.

Part of what has made him such a great fit for this Penguins team is the low cost and the unexpected nature of his production. Will he produce the same, or will it all look the same, on a longer contract worth more money? It might not.

Alex Tuch, Buffalo Sabres

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Alex Tuch might end up being a case of "good player, wrong price" this offseason. That tends to happen in unrestricted free agency in the NHL.

Tuch is a really good player and has been a huge part of the Buffalo Sabres turnaround this season. He is also going to be the top free agent on the market this summer (assuming the Sabres do not eventually re-sign him), which will put him in a position to make a LOT of money over many years. We might be talking about $10 million or more per season, potentially over six or seven years.

As good as he has been, and as good as he might be for another few years, how comfortable are you with that price tag (or something similar to it) for a player that is going to be 30 years old next season and has topped 70 points in a season just one time in his career?

He is good. He could be really good on the right contract. But I just do not know if a team will get him at the right price.

The best possible options here would be a return to Buffalo, given how good the fit has been, especially if that comes with a hometown discount, or a team that needs a good two-way, veteran forward with loaded salary cap space that could potentially afford to take the risk. Chicago comes to mind, assuming he would want to join a team that is not quite a lock to contend right away.

Columbus also seems intriguing, given the salary cap space it will have this offseason as it tries to add the missing piece or two that it might need to really become a serious Stanley Cup contender.

Bobby McMann, Seattle Kraken

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The Seattle Kraken made a great trade to pick up Bobby McMann at the NHL Trade Deadline to add a little bit of offensive punch to their lineup. They may not make the playoffs, but it won't be McMann's fault.

Entering play on Monday, he already has four goals in five games with the Kraken. He has been exactly what they hoped he would be.

But for as good as he has been so far with the Kraken, and for as good as he has been this season, he is also the type of free agent that should come with a buyer-beware label attached. A soon-to-be 30-year-old forward having a career year, while also scoring on a career-high shooting percentage, is the type of move that could quickly go sideways.

Good player. Did a great job working his way up through the system and making himself into a productive player when a lot of players would have given up. But just as was the case with Raddysh, teams should be trying to find the next Bobby McMann.