MLB Waiver Wire: Best Possible Outcome for Each Team
Every year, MLB's trade deadline brings about a flurry of activity. And every year, players get traded after that deadline, throwing many fans into confusion. Isn't a deadline supposed to mean something?
The July 31 trade deadline is officially called the non-waiver trade deadline, meaning that in order for players to be traded after July 31, a much more complicated process is followed.
First, a team must place that player on waivers. That means that each of the 29 other teams has the opportunity to claim that player. Teams in the same league as the player's current team have first priority, going from worst record to best record. If no team in the same league of the player's current team claim him, the same rules apply for the other league.
Once a player is claimed, three things can happen:
- The player can be called back by his current team, making him ineligible to be traded.
- The player can be outright released to the team that claimed him.
- The two teams can work out a trade for the claimed player. If no trade agreement is reached in 48 hours, the player is removed from waivers.
If a player goes unclaimed by all 29 teams after 48 hours, then he is eligible to be traded anywhere. Players must be acquired by Aug. 31 in order to be eligible to play in the postseason.
Because of the added complications that come with players traded after the non-waiver deadline, many players who are traded during this time are expensive, not productive or older. Last season, Adam Dunn and Jonathan Broxton were two of the biggest names that were traded in August. The most notable August trade in recent memory came in 2012, when the Red Sox traded Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took on over $250 million in salary commitments in the deal.
This is a look at what each team would hope to accomplish before the waiver deadline in an ideal scenario. For teams out of contention, the goal is typically to shed expensive contracts. Contending teams looking to acquire players are usually trying to address smaller issues, such as adding an extra bullpen arm or a reserve infielder.
To offer up your own suggestions as to what each team should try to accomplish in the coming weeks, fire away in the comments section.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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After being linked to several big-name starting pitchers leading up to the non-waiver deadline, like Cole Hamels and David Price, the Dodgers did not make the big splash most had expected them to. Instead, they ended up landing two lesser-known starters in Mat Latos and Alex Wood in a 13-player trade.
While both acquired pitchers are solid options, they were not the two on the top of the Dodgers' wish list. One option that might become available this month currently plays in the Dodgers' division—Padres starter James Shields.
First, the downsides to acquiring Shields. He's owed $63 million from 2016 to 2018. He's 33 years old and in the midst of one of the worst years of his career. And despite the moniker "Big Game James," he's been atrocious in the playoffs, owning a 5.46 ERA in 11 career starts.
Despite all this, the Dodgers would be the team most equipped to acquire Shields if the Padres decide to shed some salary. With pockets deeper than any other team, the Dodgers do not appear to be concerned about a bloated payroll, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports. In Shields, they would get a durable starter who averaged 233 innings and 4.0 WAR from 2011 to 2014, according to Fangraphs.
Shields would be the Dodgers' No. 3 starter in the postseason. Given the Padres' lack of activity at the non-waiver trade deadline, it would be surprising for them to try to dump players now. But if they decide to change course, Shields to the Dodgers might become a real possibility.
San Francisco Giants
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In 2010, the San Francisco Giants acquired Cody Ross from the Marlins in an August deal. Ross hit .288/.354/.456 in 33 regular-season games for San Francisco, then mashed in the postseason to help lead the team to a World Series title.
It's unlikely the Giants make a move that pays off as royally as that one did, but they could use a player like Ross down the stretch this season—an outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching.
Despite having a trio of outfielders—Hunter Pence, Nori Aoki and Gregor Blanco—who have combined for 5.0 WAR this season, Bruce Bochy is intent on playing Angel Pagan every day. Pagan leads all Giants outfielders with 408 plate appearances this season and has a minus-0.6 WAR so far in 2015. Blanco has been good this season, but he has an 80 wRC+ against lefties, according to Fangraphs.
(Note—wRC+ stands for Weighted Runs Created Plus. It's a comprehensive advanced stat that measures a player's overall offensive value compared to the rest of the league. It'a adjusted for park and league effects, and the league average 100, so if a player has a wRC+ of 120, that means he is producing 20 percent better than an average hitter.)
Two players who would be a good fit are Marlon Byrd and Jonny Gomes. Both players are free agents after this season, assuming they don't reach their respective vesting options in their contracts (based on number of plate appearances.) Byrd has 18 home runs this season, and though Gomes is having a bad year and has only played 67 games, he still has a 129 wRC+ against lefties this season and has a reputation for being one of those sacred Clubhouse Guys.
San Diego Padres
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In a surprising move, San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller opted against a fire sale at the non-waiver trade deadline. Instead, he hung on to key players like Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Tyson Ross, despite drawing plenty of interest for them.
Preller reportedly stood pat because he believes the Padres are still in the hunt for the playoffs this year, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark.
At 52-56, making the postseason seems unlikely, and as difficult as it might be to come to terms with, the Padres would be better off getting rid of some pricey contracts at this point. The best outcome for this team would be to find trade destinations for some of their expensive players or expiring contracts.
Kimbrel and Upton would fetch the biggest return, and players like Will Venable and Ian Kennedy—both free agents after this year—would be appealing to plenty of contending teams. Joaquin Benoit is another name that would work.
Trying to get rid of your best players does not sound like a great outcome, but shedding some payroll and gaining more flexibility would be the best long-term scenario for the Padres this month.
Arizona Diamondbacks
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In 2012, Aaron Hill ranked third among MLB second basemen with 5.3 WAR, according to Fangraphs. After the 2013 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks re-signed him to a three-year, $35 million deal that has quickly turned into a disaster.
In 213 games since the start of the 2014 season, Hill has posted a minus-1.3 WAR. He's been the least valuable second baseman in the league in that time, and he is owed $12 million next season.
There is virtually no chance of the Diamondbacks being able to get rid of Hill, but since this is a "best possible outcome" slideshow, why not shoot for the moon? Perhaps there's a team out there willing to take a chance on a resurgence from Hill, provided the Diamondbacks eat a good chunk of his remaining salary.
Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies trade of Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays means the franchise is in clear sell mode, so it makes little sense to have Reyes on the roster.
Reyes is a fine player, but he's owed $48 million in the next two seasons and has dealt with a number of injuries in recent years. Finding a suitor for him will be difficult, but not impossible. Reyes is still a productive player, even if he is grossly overpaid.
One possible destination could be the Yankees. Though current shortstop Didi Gregorius has settled in over the past two months, according to George A. King III of the New York Post, the Yankees are dead last in the league in production from their second basemen.
Reyes hasn't played second base since 2004, but perhaps he'd be willing to play there, at least occasionally, for a playoff team.
St. Louis Cardinals
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When you're as well-constructed as the St. Louis Cardinals are, there aren't too many waiver-wire moves to be made. This team is as well-rounded as there is in the league, which means that it doesn't have many areas in need of improvement.
Since we have to pick, St. Louis could use a left-handed relief pitcher. Lefty specialist Randy Choate hasn't been great this season, with a 3.71 FIP in 22 innings pitched.
One option could be Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Oliver Perez. The 33-year-old has held lefties to a .186/.238/.271 slash line this season and has struck out 21 out of 63 left-handed batters faced. Perez is a free agent after this season and would net the Diamondbacks a decent return.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best trio of outfielders in the league, and they're all between 23 and 28 years old. What the team lacks, though, is a fourth outfielder.
Gregory Polanco is undoubtedly the team's long-term solution in right field, but he's struggled at the plate this season, particularly against lefties. His 44 wRC+ against left-handed pictures demonstrates the Pirates' need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Marlon Byrd, previously mentioned as a good fit for the Giants, would also fit in Pittsburgh. His 144 wRC+ against lefties in 2015 is an enormous upgrade, forming a nice platoon in right field for the rest of the season.
Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs acquired pitchers Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter prior to the non-waiver deadline, and they could set their sights on upgrading their offense in August.
One name that's already been floating around, according to the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer, is Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley. Utley has been awful this season and is currently on the disabled list but should return to the Phillies soon.
Due to all the missed time this season that's likely to keep him from reaching 500 plate appearances, Utley will be a free agent this season and, if healthy, could help the Cubs at second base. Current starter Addison Russell is currently hitting .238 and could split time with Utley if the Cubs acquired him.
In a best-case scenario for the Cubs, the Phillies would send some money to help pay the rest of Utley's salary, and the 36-year-old would remain healthy down the stretch and help lead the Cubs to the postseason for the first time since 2008.
Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds fall into the category of a team looking to shed some salary, and, as mentioned previously, outfielder Marlon Byrd appears to be a prime candidate to get moved in August.
But in a best-case-scenario outcome, the Reds would find someone to take second baseman Brandon Phillips.
Phillips has declined offensively in recent years, but he is still a strong defender and would definitely help a contending team in need of a second baseman. He'll make $27 million over the next two seasons, so the Reds might need to send some money in a potential deal.
One possible destination is the Angels, who rank 25th in the league in second base production.
Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers traded outfielders Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra before the non-waiver deadline, and they are clearly in sell mode. The most likely player to get dealt is relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is playoff-tested and has been great this season, with a 2.18 FIP, according to Fangraphs. There are plenty of contenders that would love to add him to the back end of their bullpen.
Ideally, the Brewers can rid themselves of starters Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse. Both have been terrible this season and are making over $23 million combined in 2015. Milwaukee would obviously need to pay a large portion of their contracts to whichever team would take them, but it would be worth it if it could move either player.
Garza is signed through 2017, while Lohse is a free agent after this season.
New York Mets
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Thanks to an electric pitching staff, the New York Mets currently find themselves in first place of the NL East and with a great chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Amazingly, the Mets are in this position despite ranking 28th in the majors in runs scored. The team added Yoenis Cespedes at the non-waiver deadline to help, but it should go a step further and bring in another big name—Hanley Ramirez.
The Red Sox would love to part ways with Ramirez and his $88 million contract (more on that later), and with the strength of the Mets' minor league system, the two sides should be able to work something out. Boston would likely cover some of Ramirez's salary, but that shouldn't be a problem for it.
Ramirez is having a bad season, but he could play third base and would be an upgrade offensively over infielders like Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson. And if he can return to last season's production level, the Mets would be in much better position to hold off the Nationals down the stretch.
Washington Nationals
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On paper, the Washington Nationals are as complete a team as there is in the National League.
Things haven't played out that way on the field so far in 2015. Injuries and underperforming years from key players have held the Nationals back all season, and though the best course of action would be to get healthy and have proven players regain their form, they could use a shrewd August trade to give themselves a boost.
One area the team could stand to address is behind the plate. Wilson Ramos has struggled all season, and a potential waiver-wire pickup could be Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Even at 38 years old, Pierzynski can still play. His 117 wRC+ is the second highest of his career, and he will be a free agent after this season.
Ramos can still be Washington's long-term solution at catcher, but Pierzynski could give the Nationals a much-needed boost on offense.
Atlanta Braves
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At 48-60, the Atlanta Braves are clearly sellers. Jonny Gomes and A.J. Pierzynski have already been mentioned as attractive options for contending teams, but the best-case scenario for Atlanta would be to find a taker for Nick Markakis.
Markakis signed a four-year, $44 million contract this past offseason, and the Braves told teams he was not available prior to the non-waiver deadline, per MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
Markakis is the highest-paid player on the team. He hasn't been anything more than a slightly above-average player for several years, and at 31 years old his best seasons are probably behind him. Trading Markakis would open up possibilities in free agency, and the Braves would be wise to find the best deal for him now.
Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins are another team looking to sell, and utility man Martin Prado is a prime candidate to be on the move.
Prado is a plus defender at multiple positions. He's mostly played third base this season but can also play second base and the corner outfield spots. He's owed $11 million in 2016, so the Marlins might need to cover some of that cost, but there are plenty of contenders who could use him at a number of positions, even as a backup.
Possible destinations include the Los Angeles Angels, Giants, Yankees and Houston Astros, among others.
Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies already traded one of the biggest contracts (and best player) in Cole Hamels at the non-waiver deadline, and others are sure to come in August. Ideally, first baseman Ryan Howard would be on the move this month.
Howard is among the most overpaid players in baseball. He'll make $25 million dollars in 2016, the final year of a disastrous five-year, $138 million contract. He's hit right-handed pitching well this year, with a 123 wRC+, but doesn't offer much more to the table, as he is an awful defender and baserunner.
If the Phillies miraculously found someone to take Howard, they would need to cover the majority of his contract, but after finding deals for Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon, maybe they can do the same with Howard.
Houston Astros
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The Astros rank 22nd in the league in first base production, thanks in large part to an abysmal season from Chris Carter.
A great fit at the position for Houston would be Adam Lind. Lind has been great for the last-place Brewers, with a 127 wRC+ and 16 home runs. Lind has an $8 million team option for 2016, so he could be more than a two-month rental.
Los Angeles Angels
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Aside from Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun, the Angels offense has been a mess all season. They have plenty of holes in their lineup, though none bigger than in left field.
Angels left fielders have a wRC+ of 59, worst in the majors. They added David Murphy, David DeJesus and Shane Victorino before the non-waiver deadline, but none are true impact bats, and all are free agents after this season.
Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce both present some challenges—both are expensive and would require giving up a lot in prospects—but in an ideal world, the Angels could snag a big bat like that. Realistically, the asking price for either player would be too high for the Angels, but if they could somehow work something out, it would give the offense a much-needed boost.
Texas Rangers
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With their acquisition of Cole Hamels before the non-waiver deadline, the Texas Rangers have positioned themselves to contend in 2016. With that goal in mind, any move should be geared more toward next year, rather than the last two months of this year.
A best-case scenario would be to trade starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has pitched well for the Rangers this year, but he is a free agent after this season. With Yu Darvish and Derek Holland expected back next year after dealing with injuries, it's unlikely Texas would re-sign Gallardo.
Getting something in return would be a wise move. The Rangers almost traded him to the Dodgers on July 31, per Jon Morosi, but couldn't reach an agreement. Other teams would welcome his services in the final two months of the season, and the Rangers should make a move now rather than let him walk in the offseason.
Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners came into 2015 with very high expectations, and the season has been an absolute dud so far.
Last year, Seattle led the American League with a 3.17 team ERA. It's ninth this year at 3.97, and it's 13th in the AL in runs scored.
There are not a ton of desirable trade pieces on the roster, but one player to move would be Mark Trumbo. Trumbo is on his third team in three seasons and has missed a lot of time with injuries this season. Since getting traded by the Angels after the 2013 season, he's posted a minus-1.3 WAR with the Diamondbacks and Mariners.
Trumbo will make $6.9 million this season, and he'll be a free agent after the 2016 season. While he's struggled mightily since leaving the Angels, he still has exceptional power and could be a useful DH.
Oakland Athletics
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It's been a nightmare of a season for Oakland A's center fielder Coco Crisp. Injuries have allowed him to play just 16 games up to this point, and the A's are stuck in last place in the AL West.
Crisp had been worth 12.7 WAR in his five seasons in Oakland prior to 2015. He is in the first year of a two-year, $22 million contract, and the A's would love to shed some of that salary.
At 35 years old, Crisp doesn't seem to be a part of a rebuilding plan, and Oakland would be happy to get something in return for a player who still has plenty to offer when healthy.
Kansas City Royals
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In 377 plate appearances, Omar Infante has been worth minus-0.5 WAR this season for the first-place Royals. They would be wise to pick up a second baseman during the month of August.
The Royals were very active at the non-waiver deadline, adding starting pitcher Johnny Cueto and utility man Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is playing left field while Alex Gordon recovers from a groin injury. Gordon is expected to return by the end of August, per Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star.
When Gordon returns, Zobrist will shift to second base, but until then, the Royals would be wise to search for an upgrade. Martin Prado would be a great fit, and when Gordon returns, Prado's role as a versatile reserve would be extremely valuable.
Minnesota Twins
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Currently with a record of 54-53 and just two games out of a playoff spot, the Minnesota Twins are one of the surprise teams of the season. One area in which they could use some help is in the bullpen.
The Twins have the third-worst FIP in the American League, according to Fangraphs. They could definitely use another arm at the end of games to help down the stretch.
(Note—FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It's an advanced stat meant to measure a pitcher's performance without the help of defense, luck and park factors. You can read more about it here.)
A good player to target would be Koji Uehara. Uehara is signed through next season, when he will make $9 million. Though he's 40 years old, he has a 2.44 FIP and has shown no signs of breaking down.
Detroit Tigers
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The Detroit Tigers' trade of Yoenis Cespedes and David Price signals a clear sell mode, and the firing of GM Dave Dombrowski this week puts the franchise in an even greater state of upheaval.
It seems to be that the best thing the Tigers could do at this point is rid themselves of unwanted contracts. The most likely players to be moved are catcher Alex Avila and outfielder Rajai Davis.
Both players are free agents after this season, and they would be the easiest to move. An ideal scenario would include the Tigers being able to trade starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who's owed $38.6 million in the next two seasons. He would be harder to move, but shedding that salary would help the Tigers in the long run.
Chicago White Sox
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By 2011, John Danks had accumulated 15.5 WAR in four full seasons as a member of the Chicago White Sox's rotation. At age 27, he signed a five-year, $65 million deal that looked like a steal at the time, but turned into a dud almost instantly.
Danks has made just 83 starts since the start of 2012, and he's amassed 2.2 WAR during that time. He's due $14.2 million in 2016, but he's in the midst of his best season since signing the deal. Yes, he's overpaid, but a team like the Yankees with plenty of money and in need of a starting pitcher could make a deal work.
In a dream world, the White Sox could also get rid of Adam LaRoche, who has been one of the worst hitters among those with 350 plate appearances, but he's owed $13 million in 2016 and has virtually no shot of being moved.
Cleveland Indians
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The best thing the Cleveland Indians could do in August would be to get rid of Michael Bourn. Bourn has steadily declined since signing his four-year, $48 million deal before the 2012 season.
It's hard to imagine a team giving up anything valuable for the 32-year-old, but if Cleveland covers most of his remaining salary, Bourn could serve as a useful fourth outfielder for a playoff team. He still is a good baserunner and would probably have fresher legs if he's not forced to play every day.
New York Yankees
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In a sign of the changing times, the Yankees were mostly quiet at the non-waiver trade deadline. Perhaps that could be the calm before the storm, as the team is still desperate for starting pitching help.
Though the Yankees were scouting Padres relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit, per Jon Morosi of Fox, they'd be wiser to add a starting pitcher.
With Michael Pineda out until at least September, according to ESPN's Andrew Marchand, and Masahiro Tanaka basically holding his breath that his elbow doesn't give out, the situation is dire for the Yankees' rotation.
The best August outcome would be for Pineda to return at full strength, but in terms of acquiring players, any arm will do. Possible candidates include James Shields, Yovani Gallardo or John Danks.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays were the busiest team at the non-waiver deadline, adding Troy Tulowitzki, David Price and Ben Revere. It's a safe bet that their biggest moves are behind them, but they could still do some tinkering in the coming weeks.
Pitching has been their biggest weakness, and they could try to add a starter to help their rotation. The Padres' Ian Kennedy would be a good pickup. He's having an off year, but he's a free agent at the end of the season and would not be too costly to trade for. It would be a good risk to help fill out the fifth spot in the rotation as the Jays try to rally for a playoff spot.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Orioles picked up Gerardo Parra at the non-waiver deadline, giving their outfield a much-needed boost. Now, their focus should be on positional depth, which would make Martin Prado a great fit.
Prado can play second base, third base, left field and right field. The combined WAR for all the right fielders the Orioles have played this season is minus-0.3, so Prado would be a big upgrade.
Starting second baseman Jonathan Schoop has been productive this year, but he's only appeared in 34 games. Prado would provide backup in case Schoop misses any more time.
As evidenced by this slideshow, Prado should be a pretty popular guy over the next few weeks.
Tampa Bay Rays
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As the quintessential small-market darlings, the Tampa Bay Rays should look to clear salary in the coming weeks. Their ideal scenario would include trading away first baseman James Loney.
Loney is due $8 million in 2016, after which he becomes a free agent. He's in the middle of a bad year and won't fetch too much in a trade, but he was productive in 2013 and 2014, which might draw enough interest for some team to take him off the Rays' hands.
Boston Red sox
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The 2012 Red Sox-Dodgers trade was amazing because of the amount of money the Sox were able to shed. It's unlikely they pull off something as substantial this year, but the goal should be something similar.
The Red Sox pitching staff has been a disaster. They have so much money owed to old or unproductive players—Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello—that they should try to dump salary at any cost and hope for a similar result as they got in 2013.
Sandoval has been an incredible disappointment this season, and his physique does not suggest that he will age well. In a true best-case scenario, the Sox can find someone to take Sandoval off their hands.
Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.
Nick is a member of BR's Advanced Program in Sports Media. You can follow him on Twitter @NickSelbe.
