NCAA Tournament Bracket 2026 Predictions for Biggest Upsets of Men's 1st Round
It never ceases to amaze how little time is needed to thoroughly bust a bracket.
Even if chalk has held better than before in the past couple NCAA Tournaments, the single-elimination setup lends itself to chaos.
March Madness is, of course, way more than just brilliant branding. It might be the most apt description in sports, at least when the hoop gods decide to render seed lines meaningless.
Could this be one of those years? Well, the bracket offers no shortage of possible first-round upsets, so let's spotlight three of our favorites.
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No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville
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The Bulls have too much offensive firepower to be overwhelmed by the Cardinals. And that'd be true even if Louisville star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. was fully healthy and not instead battling a re-aggravated back injury.
But with Brown being either sidelined or likely limited, it's hard not to like South Florida's upset chances in a possible shootout.
The Bulls have five different double-digit scorers, and most are, at worst, adequate shooters from range. They can pile up points and put some real heat on the Cardinals, and if Brown can't give it a go or is compromised, the Bulls can keep the good times rolling and stretch their winning streak to 12.
No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU
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The Longhorns, admittedly, haven't done much to inspire any confidence. That said, they don't lack for talent, and they should all be riding high after gutting out a two-point triumph over NC State in the first four.
The Cougars, meanwhile, had some magical moments this season, but they're kinda limping to the finish line. They've lost both Richie Saunders and Dawson Baker to season-ending ACL injuries, and they haven't been the same without him. This team is 7-10 since the middle of January and 4-5 over the last month.
For the record, nothing about picking against BYU's star freshman AJ Dybantsa feels remotely pleasant, but he can only do so much on his own. And it's very possible that won't be enough here, especially if Texas can control the glass and wreak havoc on defense.
No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin
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The confidence level, to be clear, isn't quite as high for this pick. But rather than pick on another injured No. 6 seed, we'll instead look for the always popular 12-5 upset.
High Point's formula for making it happen is pretty simple: limit mistakes, force Wisconsin mistakes and score a boatload of points. Good, effective basketball doesn't have to be complicated.
The Badgers have the kind of guards you'd want for a matchup like this, but things can always go haywire against a defensive that's this disruptive. If Wisconsin's ball control is anything other than on-point, then High Point could have a chance.
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